Feb 09

The End Of BREXIT

Or Theresa May and the Tories, or, maybe, both.

You might recall that after the snap General Election where Labour under Corbyn performed especially well (and not so incidentally crushed the hopes and dreams of Qusling Neo Liberal Torylite Blairites) and the Conservatives lost their Parliamentary majority, the Tories were forced into a coalition Government with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

While it’s pretty distasteful that the Conservatives were willing to accept association with the Paisley Party, the political arm of the Protestant Terrorists, they, like our own Conservatives, don’t know the meaning of shame and hypocrisy and basically have no morals or ethics at all.

One manifestation of this uncomfortable alliance is that the DUP threatened to bring down Theresa May’s Government and force a new Election, one that Labour is likely to win, unless she agreed to what is called “Paragraph 50”. Being the pro-Union with the UK fanatics that they are, the DUP insisted the Tories promise that there would never be a customs or any other border between Northern Ireland and the UK.

Well, ok you say, why is that a big deal?

Because Ireland is going to stay in the EU and there is this big long border between them and Northern Ireland.

You see part of the Good Friday agreement that ended the terrorist war in 1998 between Paisley’s Partisans and the British Army on the one hand and the IRA on the other is that there would never be a customs or any other border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

So where do you put the border between the EU and the UK?

Can’t have it at the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland because of the Good Friday agreement. Can’t have it at sea or in British ports because of Paragraph 50.

Who cares about Ireland? Just put it at the border between them and Northern Ireland.

Well, that would be incredibly dangerous. From The Guardian

Earlier this week George Hamilton, chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, warned that any infrastructure at the border, however light, would become a target for armed groups and pose a danger to his officers. “The terrorists only have to be lucky once and get a result with catastrophic consequences,” he said.

Gotta love those Brits, such a talent for understatement. At best there would be rampant smuggling and the odd pot shot with a rifle. At worst it could reignite what was called “The Troubles” which was basically a state of open warfare between Ireland and the UK between 1922 and 1998. And it was damn successful too, you think the odd Al-Queda or Daesh attack is pretty terrible? The IRA taught them all they know.

Then there is that little matter of Brexit. Ireland, as a member of the EU, has an absolute single member veto power over any agreement between the EU and the UK. If they say no when Brexit day is come and gone Britain will have nothing but its membership in the WTO to trade under, not even the Most Favored Nations status China enjoys. All its previous Trade Agreements got folded into the EU and don’t apply anymore. To say it would be economically devastating is to be almost British in understatement.

Ok, so enforce Customs and Borders at sea or in the ports.

Then you violate Paragraph 50, piss off the DUP, they drop the Tories as coalition partners ending their working majority, and new Elections are held which the Conservatives will lose- badly. MPs will be booted from their seats in droves. Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!

Do nothing you say?

Sigh, among the Tories there is a significant fraction of ardent Brexiteers who think May is a squish to begin with and are not so sure about the others. Something must happen or they’ll split and form their own Brexit Party. That’s why Cameron held the Brexit referendum in the first place and why May was forced to set a date.

Of course, since she did, the EU could just take it as a done deal and give the Brits the boot.

What I think is likely to happen is that conditions will deteriorate and May will either resign or be forced to call new Elections soon. Resignation doesn’t really solve the Tories’ problems as it’s not so much that she’s feckless (though she is) as it is that they are deeply divided. The Corporatists and Financial Toadies don’t like Brexit at all.