Remembrance Day

On 11 November at 5:00 am, an armistice with Germany was signed in a railroad carriage at Compiègne. At 11 am on 11 November 1918 – “the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month” – a ceasefire came into effect. During the six hours between the signing of the armistice and its taking effect, opposing armies on the Western Front began to withdraw from their positions, but fighting continued along many areas of the front, as commanders wanted to capture territory before the war ended. Canadian Private George Lawrence Price was shot by a German sniper at 10:57 and died at 10:58. American Henry Gunther was killed 60 seconds before the armistice came into force while charging astonished German troops who were aware the Armistice was nearly upon them. The last British soldier to die was Pte George Edwin Ellison. The last casualty of the war was a German, Lieutenant Thomas, who, after 11 am, was walking towards the line to inform Americans who had not yet been informed of the Armistice that they would be vacating the buildings behind them.

Stanley Kubrick– Paths of Glory (1957) (1:27)

History and its discontents

No we’re not going to talk about slips and the fact that you wear them to make sure that your clothes fall right and don’t bunch up on your body.

This is instead my pointlessly long introduction to the BBC 5 documentary, The Russian Revolution In Colour, and this criticism by Nadim al-Mahjoub

Perhaps because I watched the documentary in black and white I was not so prone to accept the colourful misrepresentation of the revolution.

…

The Russian Revolution in Colour (History Documentary), we read on the Channel Five website, “shows how the Kronstadt sailors’ loyalty helped defend the revolution in its first years; and how their brutal defeat killed the flickering of hope for a more just society.” The documentary highlights the role played by the sailors of the Kronstadt naval base in the second Russian revolution as well as in the October Revolution. In addition to their strong militancy, the documentary stresses the high level of democracy and self-governing that reigned among the sailors of Kronstadt. The ‘turning point’ of the revolution, the editors argue, is that while the February Revolution was spontaneous the October Revolution was consciously organised. Lenin and his followers, the documentary tells us, “killed the hope when they dissolved the Constituent Assembly and took over.”

Regarding the circumstances, and what happened just after the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly, which they portray as ‘the embryo of democracy’, the documentary mentions nothing. Was it something of secondary importance that it was not worthy of mention in describing the process of the revolution? Or was the omission of the context and the reactions of the forces in play a deliberate act by the makers of the documentary? Unlike many commentators the documentary does not say that the Bolshevik Revolution was a coup. But what is stressed in the film is that the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly by Lenin led to dictatorship. Thus, the editors suggest, Soviet Dictatorship started with Lenin and was continued by Stalin.

The Russian revolution took place in a backward country; the overwhelming majority of the population of the country were peasants, most were illiterate, and the level of technique and production was very low. Russia was a semi-colony producing less than three per cent of world industrial output. The revolution found itself not only besieged by a fierce foreign intervention hell-bent on destroying it, but also without the hoped for assistance by the spread of the revolution to the developed capitalist countries of the time. These objective factors were to play a decisive role in determining the fate of the revolution. Lenin and Trotsky were the leaders of the revolution and they were all the time aware of the impossibility of establishing socialism in Russia alone. Thus, they linked the success of winning the battle for democracy by the working class to the revolution in Germany, in particular, and in the developed countries in general.

I happened to see this broadcast the other day and was quite surprised when it turned up in my recommended viewing list.

Your tinfoil hat is optional.

As a child I totally enjoyed the Emmuska Orczy story, now that I know more about the French Revolution not so much.  Originally posted here August 3, 2011.

I laughed, I cried.

Mostly I cried.

America died. The Democrat Party voted God out of their platform and replaced Him with Romans 1. In the Good vs. Evil battle…today…Evil won. Thanks a lot Christians, for not showing up. You disgust me.

Romans 1:26-27

For this cause God gave them up unto vile affections: for even their women did change the natural use into that which is against nature: And likewise also the men, leaving the natural use of the woman, burned in their lust one toward another; men with men working that which is unseemly, and receiving in themselves that recompence of their error which was meet.

This passage is unique in that it is the only place in the Bible that refers to same-gender sexual behavior by women.

I want to be fair to Victoria Jackson, but she just doesn’t understand Christianity very well.

Matthew 27:45-46

And about the ninth hour Jesus cried with a loud voice, saying, “Eli, Eli, lama sabachthani?” that is to say, “My God, my God, why hast thou forsaken me?”

I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize life is that gift from God, and I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.

Say what you like about Mourdock, but he is logically consistent with his faith.

Bob Barr on Drones, Democrats & Dirty Politics

My activist brother says the funniest part is Barr trying to pretend to take Jackson seriously.

Beep beep.  Originally posted August 2, 2011.

Still no Wikipedia entry.

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• On This Day In History November 7 by TheMomCat
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Write more and often.  This is an Open Thread.

It’s alive!

No, seriously, this one survived all the way from August 1, 2011.

On the other hand, the North East prepares for another Nor’easter.  It’s already slightly white outside.

I propose we name them.  This one is Grumpy.

Australia’s Federal Court issues landmark judgment against S&P, ABN Amro

Reuters

Mon Nov 5, 2012 4:18am GMT

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia’s Federal court issued a landmark judgment on Monday that Standard & Poor’s misled investors by giving its highest rating to derivatives that lost almost all their value in the run-up to the 2008 global economic crisis.

The Australian case marked the first time a ratings agency had faced trial over the complex financial products widely cited as one of the factors that triggered the crisis and could set a precedent for future litigation around the world.

…

“This is a major blow to the ratings agencies, which for years have had the benefit of profiting from the assignment of these ratings without ever being accountable to investors for those opinions,” said lawyer Amanda Banton of Piper Alderman, who represented the local councils.

“Today’s judgment will ultimately have the effect of ensuring ratings agencies are accountable and promoting transparency in the ratings process,” Banton added.

Monday’s ruling follows a judgment in September against Lehman Brothers Australia, which found that firm breached its legal duties when it sold collateralised debt obligations, or CDOs, to a group of charities, councils and churches that collectively lost A$250 million ($259 million).

Hero of the day, CPDO edition

Felix Salmon, Reuters

Nov 5, 2012 18:38 UTC

I’d never heard of Australian federal judge Jayne Jagot before today, but she’s my new favorite jurist, thanks to her decision in a recent court case which was brought against ABN Amro and Standard & Poors.

The coverage of the decision (Quartz, FT, WSJ, Bloomberg, Reuters) concentrates, as it should, on the hugely important precedent being set here: that a ratings agency – in this case, S&P – is being found liable for losses that an investor suffered after trusting that agency.

…

The case at heart is a simple one: 12 local councils in Australia bought a bunch of CPDOs, and they only did so because S&P had given those instruments a triple-A rating. S&P, in turn, should never have given the CPDOs that triple-A rating. So it’s S&P’s fault that the councils lost so much money – jointly with ABN Amro, which structured the things.

How does Jagot come to the conclusion that “a reasonably competent ratings agency” would never have given the CPDOs a triple-A rating? Simple: S&P used utterly bonkers assumptions in order to come to its conclusion.

…

There’s really no way of reading what S&P did, here, except that it simply massaged the assumptions it was using until it managed to find something which was consistent with the triple-A rating it wanted. When spreads are at 30bp, what makes you think they’ll average 40bp over one year and then 80bp over nine years? Especially when the index as a whole has never averaged anything like 80bp? It’s simply not a reasonable assumption, and the fact that S&P made it just goes to show how the agency was acting for its paymasters – ABN Amro – and was not putting out reliable ratings at all.

…

You’d think that a ratings agency, of all institutions, would be alive to the risk of ratings downgrades. But, it turns out, not so much. ABN Amro, in its model , simply didn’t include what’s known as “ratings migration” – and S&P, similarly, completely ignored it.

The result, in reality, was devastating. Because companies could borrow at such low rates, they were particularly vulnerable to being taken over by private-equity firms which could load them up with cheap debt, devastating their credit ratings. And that’s exactly what happened. A whole series of investment-grade companies, like Alliance Boots, Alltel, and Boston Scientific, got levered up by their new private-equity owners, and lost their investment-grade credit ratings.

…

Put it all together, and you get a very shocking view of S&P. Here’s the list:

• S&P used the wrong model input for starting spread.
• S&P used the wrong model input for volatilty.
• S&P used the wrong model input for average spread.
• S&P completely ignored ratings migration.

If S&P had just got any one of these things right, the CPDO would never have gotten that triple-A rating. If it had got them all right, the CPDO would almost certainly not even have been investment grade, let alone triple-A.

S&P was not doing its job, and as a result a bunch of Australian municipalities lost a great deal of money. Jagot has found S&P liable, as she should. Good for her.

Australian Court: Standard and Poor’s Liable for Bad Ratings on Securities

By: David Dayen, Firedog Lake

Monday November 5, 2012 12:26 pm

This will get approximately no attention today, but a federal court in Australia ruled that Standard and Poor’s, the credit rating agency, lied to investors when they awarded their highest, triple-A rating to derivative securities that lost their value within two years of purchase.

…

Further rulings of this type in this very new area of case law would be devastating to the rating agencies. They would also be correct. Rating agencies, paid by the banks whose securities they rate, simply failed to model the potential for a collapse in value of a basket of securities, particularly mortgage backed securities during the housing bubble. This led a host of investors to trust the ratings and buy the products, only to have their values collapse. While the banks got bailed out, the investors did not; they were collateral damage in the financial crash. And when I say “investors” I also mean municipal and union pension funds.

Those who want to defend the system argue that investors should have done their own due diligence before deciding on purchasing these structured finance products. The Australian court didn’t agree. They argued that the rating agencies are culpable for their work, and that their failures amounted to fraud. Rating agencies have never been held accountable for the ratings they assign, and this ruling, if replicated, would completely upend that expectation. The first place we could see further action from investors would be in Europe. The US has seen some case law in this area, and by and large the rating agencies have gotten off scot-free, using both disclaimers in their written materials and Constitutional protections on freedom of speech, believe it or not. There are some outstanding cases, however.

But Mr. Market certainly took notice of this ruling, dropping the stock of S&P’s parent company, McGraw-Hill, over 5%. Other rating agency stocks fell as well. And that’s appropriate, because the money that Standard and Poor’s will now have to pay the local councils in Australia outstrips the money the councils lost on the securities. There’s massive exposure here.

This is your space to share your thoughts and reactions.

My prediction?  Boring Barack Blowout.  It really isn’t even as close as all that.

Poll Closings–

• 6 pm– Parts of Indiana and Kentucky (no results yet)
• 7 pm– Parts of New Hampshire and Florida (no results yet), Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, all of Indiana and Kentucky (results)
• 7:30 pm– Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina (results)
• 8 pm– Parts of Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Texas (no results yet), Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, all of New Hampshire and Florida (results)
• 8:30 pm– Arkansas (results)
• 9 pm– New York, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Louisianna, all of North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan, Kansas, Texas (results)
• 10 pm– Parts of Oregon, Idaho (no results yet), Iowa, Montana, Utah, Nevada (results)
• 11 pm– Washington, California, all of Oregon, Idaho (results)

Alaska and Hawaii close much later, but the election will be well over by then.

It’s not really about the race at the top of the ticket though, it’s how badly Romney and the Tea Party Partisans have damaged the Republican brand for the under ticket.  I’m predicting +2 D in the Senate and +23 D in the House (just short of a Pelosi Speakership).

TheMomCat and I will be trying to follow the under ticket as best we can, the final results will probably not be known until the end of the week on those races.

If you’re just sick of it and want to talk about that?

It’s an Open Thread, no subject off topic.  If I wasn’t running this myself I’d be sorely tempted to watch The Looney Toons premier, the Chopped marathon or American Pickers (anyone know what I can get for my McCain/Palin ‘Wet Start’ bumper sticker?).

Zombie Apocalypse Voting.  Originally posted November 8, 2011.

Let me start by saying that this is not an endorsement of any particular party, candidate, or course of action.  For one thing it would be awfully presumptuous of me to think that anything I could do or say would influence you more than stark reality, the thing about truth is that it’s unpersuadable- it doesn’t change because of the excellence of the argument or the eloquence of the presenter.

Likewise you have no expectation or entitlement to know anything at all about me like what I had for breakfast (a spinach quesadilla) or especially what I choose to do in a voting booth unless I tell you and at that I’ll likely lie my ass off unless my answer is inconsequential and then I’ll probably lie just for sport.

I’m not your mommy or daddy, or your child.

I’ll also repeat this just in case it’s slipped out of your consciousness-

DocuDharma and The Stars Hollow Gazette are explicitly non-partisan.  You may freely express your support for any candidate.  They are also public so if you publish an unpopular sentiment or inconvenient truth only your discretion and the obviously mean spirited nature of cross blog stalking protect you from consequences and suppression in other forums.  Nor are your ideas immune from criticism and discussion here, but you won’t be sanctioned for anything except violating the normal rules of behavior.

Another thing that I don’t think people ‘get’ about me politically is that I’m really pretty conservative.  Sure I’m in favor of confiscatory wealth taxes; strict environmental, fraud, business and financial regulation including criminal imprisonment of guilty managers, officers and directors in the general population just like any common cut purse; transaction taxes, punitive tariffs and currency controls; and dismantlement of the corporate welfare system including carbon energy, genetically modified agriculture and factory farming, and the military industrial complex including the subsidized National Security Theater, Prohibition Morality Police, and Privatized Prisons.

But I’m generally against changes to our Constitution.  I like the Electoral College and filibuster because I think they help preserve minority and regional rights.

And yes, I do realize that the filibuster is not “Constitutional” except that part which says that Article One institutions (the House and Senate) get to establish their own rules.

On the other hand I am in favor of Article Three Court packing because the exact number of Justices is nowhere enshrined even nearly as well in our founding document or its amendments and has been set by legislative precedent (a power explicitly given to the Legislature by the Constitution and subject to Executive Veto) at various configurations between 6 and 10 (see, no historic preference for odd numbered tie breaking either).

FDR was right.

The nature of evil

The Republican Party is composed of 30% of the population who are either avaricious scoundrels or hopelessly bigoted or both.  They propose policies, and enact them if possible, that reflect their evil nature.  I am not one to sugar coat the stark inhumanity of their souls and while I admire the idealism of those missionaries who think they can educate them away from their willful ignorance I find them fundamentally foolish, their energy misguided, their faith misplaced.

Ignorance does not equal stupidity.  They are cunning, ruthless, and resourceful and they look upon you as naive rubes, mere marks to be exploited and harvested like sheep.  The trouble with Kansas is that there are so many Kansans in it and they are happy being evil, not that they are dumb.

And of course they’re not limited to Kansas, would that they were.  The War of Northern Aggression was primarily motivated by the fact that northern states aggressively didn’t recognize the obvious moral superiority of the South and it’s peculiar institution of race slavery and instead condemned it as hateful and uncivilized.  This itself was not was not without a class economic component as over half the wealth of the entire United States was held in the value of human cattle, its breeding, and labor.

Representative Democracy

“The past is never dead.  It’s not even past.”

A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently, half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided.  It will become all one thing or all the other.  Either the opponents of slavery will arrest the further spread of it, and place it where the public mind shall rest in the belief that it is in the course of ultimate extinction; or its advocates will push it forward, till it shall become alike lawful in all the States, old as well as new – North as well as South.

Mr. Lincoln’s argument goes something like this- At the beginning of 1854 race slavery was legislatively excluded from more than half the United States.  With the incorporation of Kansas and Nebraska that legislation was superseded by mandate for a local plebiscite and the Supreme Court subsequently found in Dred Scott that the property right to own, work and breed human cattle for profit once granted to a citizen under that laws of any State must be equally enforced in all States in the absence of Federal legislation which was impossible to achieve due to bi-partisan acquiescence in the institution of slavery.

Lesser Evilism

Remember the Whigs!  In 1852 the party fractured along pro and anti slavery lines and was never again a national political force.  By contrast the Democrats were the party of slavery uncontested and united.

Does that mean loyal Whigs should have supported Millard Filmore?

I guess that depends on whether you think it would have delayed or prevented the War of Southern Rebellion and that “compromises” such as compensating the owners of slave wealth and shipping their Cain marked property back to Africa like the inhuman savages they were was less evil.

Wesley Culp died assaulting the hill named after his Uncle defending slavery and compromise after all.  I’m sure his family and dog loved him and missed him terribly.

Greater Evilism

I suppose you expected me to talk about War Crimes.  About torture and ovens and extermination.  When I was younger I used to wonder what could bring an entire nation to such depths of depravity that they could condone and ignore aggressive war.

Now, unfortunately, I know.

And the question is what I must do.

Out there is a hill with my family’s name on it and when I visit it will not be to compromise or defend evil of any sort.

I will wear a white rose.

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• 2012 by: ek hornbeck

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