Congressional races by state: IN and NM

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, and PA; today, NM, where the filing  is 2/12, and IN, where it is 2/22.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NM has 3 congressional districts, 2 are held by Republicans, 1 by a Democrat

IN has 9 districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

IN-01     D+8      .45      Visclosky       Yes            Safe (rematch)

IN-02     R+4      .59      Donnelly        Yes            Somewhat vul

IN-07     D+9      .20      none (Carson)   Yes            Prob. safe

IN-08     R+9      .70      Ellsworth       Yes            Unclear

IN-09     R+7      .75      Hill            Yes            Vulnerable            

NM-03     D+6      .34      Udall           No             Udall retiring

Indiana has several vulnerable representatives.

NM-03 is probably safely Democratic….NM will be one wild place, with all the house seats open, and one senate seat, and Richardson running for President (not any more).

Now, for the seats held by Republicans:

IN-03 R+16  .70

IN-03 is the NE corner of IN, bordering MI and OH

Souder, first elected in 1994, has had a couple of fairly close races.  In 2006, he won 54-46 against Thomas Hayhurst, in a relatively low cost race (each spent around $700,000)

Hayhurst may run again, and Mike Montagano is definitely running.  In October, he had more cash on hand than Souder did, and has several endorsements.  Could be interesting

IN-04 R+17 .73

IN-04 is a long, narrow district, in western central IN, including western exurbs of Indianapolis

Buyer, first elected in 1992, has won easily without spending huge amounts, the last two times against David Sanders

Sanders might run again, and Nels Ackerson is running. His website makes him sound distinctly moderate, and this looks like a longshot

IN-05 R+20 .75

IN-05 is also long and narrow, but it’s eastern central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianopolis.

Burton, first elected in 1982, has won easily, although his closest race ever was in 2006, when Katherine Carr managed to get 31% with almost no money.

She might run again, but there is no confirmed challenger.

IN-06 R+11 .72

IN-06 is yet another long, narrow district, this one on the eastern edge of IN, bordering OH, and home of the famously typical Muncie

Pence, first elected in 2000, has not had well-funded opponents.  In 2006, Barry Welsh got 40% with only $45,000 (to Pence’s $1.3 million).

Welsh is running again; he’s also written about his race on daily Kos .

NM-01 D+2 .34

NM-01 is the center of NM, including Albuquerque

Wilson, first elected in 1998, won one of the closest (maybe the closest) races in the country in 2006, winning by 861 votes out of 210,000, in a race where she spent almost $5 million and her opponent, Patricia Madrid, spent over $3 million.  Now, Wilson is likely to retire to run for Senate.

There are two confirmed Democrats: Martin Heinrich ; Jon Adams ; and (Jason Call has withdrawn, unfortunately), and several others (including Madrid) might run.  No confirmed Republicans yet.  Gonna be interesting!

NM-02 R+6  .37

NM-02 is the southern half of NM.

Pearce, first elected in 2002, and re-elected pretty easily even against well-funded opponents (he won 60-40 in 2004 against Gary King, who spent over $1 million), is probably retiring to run for Senate.

There are 4 confirmed Democrats: Bill McCamley ; Al Kissling ; Harry Teague and Joe Cervantes. McCamley wrote about his candidacy here .