Congressional races by state: MD

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, and IL, where filing is already closed.  Today I look at Maryland, where the filing date is also past

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Maryland has 8 congressional districts

6 are held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans.

The 6 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?          rating

2         D+8    .26       Ruppersbergre    Yes                Fairly safe

3         D+7    .42       Sarbanes         Yes (a bunch)       Slight vul

4         D+30   .14       Wynn             Yes (and primary!)  Safe

5         D+9    .56       Hoyer            Yes (and primary!)  Safe

7         D+25   .08       Cummings         Yes (and primary!)  Safe

8         D+20   .38       van Hollen       Yes (and primary!)  Safe

Some of the primaries might get interesting, but I think we are pretty safe with these 6

Only 2 Republican seats: The first and the sixth.

MD-01 R +10 .74 The 1st is the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and some Republican areas between Annapolis and Baltimore.

Gilchrest, first elected in 1990, is a very moderate Republican, with a 60 rating from the ACLU and 67 from League of Conservation Voters and a 0 from the Christian Coalition.

He’s facing both primary and GE challenges.  I think if he survives the primary, he will probably win the general.  He has won easily in the past, without having to raise much money.  Still, there are Democrats running: Frank Kravotil (cute pic on the web page; 4 boys) and Christopher Robinson and Steve Harper and Joseph Werner.  Back in October, Steve Singiser reported FEC filings :

Rep. Wayne Gilchrest–GOP (91K/414K)

Andy Harris–GOP (352K/402K)

Frank Kratovil–DEM (83K/111K)

(the numbers are amount raised in 3rd quarter, and cash on hand.

MD-06 R +13 .80

The 6th is mostly western MD.

Bartlett, first elected in 1992, got challenged by Andrew Duck in 2006; in one of the cheaper contested races (total spending for both was about $630,000), Bartlett won 59-38.

This year, he faces a primary challenge, and then Duck is running again, as are Robin Deibert and Jennifer Dougherty and Rick Lank

Summary:

I think all 8 seats look pretty safe, unless one of the Republicans loses a primary battle to a right wing loon.