Hillary, Obama and McCain: Who’d have thought it? w/poll

Well, now that JE has dropped out, on the Democratic side we’re down to HRC, BO and MG (!) (yes, he even outlasted JE).  So, I guess we do really have a choice amongst the Democrats right now, but I’ll continue on the basis that Mike is not going to get the nomination.  On the Republican side, we’re pretty much down to MR, JMcC and MH (unless RP does much better next week, which he probably won’t), with McCain holding the mantle of front runner, which he probably will be able to manage to win the nomination from.

So, with Super dooper sloberknocker stupendous outrageous overwhelming fantastic Tuesday staring us in the face, it might be good to look at how we have gotten here.

First, on the Dem side, let’s look at a poll from a little more than a year ago (19Jan2007):

24. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, or Mike Gravel), for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE:

                        1/19/07     12/11/06

Hillary Clinton            41           39

Barack Obama               17           17

John Edwards               11           12

John Kerry                  8            7

Al Gore                    10           10

Wesley Clark                1            1

Tom Vilsack                 *            1

Evan Bayh                  NA            1

Bill Richardson             1            2

Joe Biden                   3            2

Chris Dodd                  *            *

Dennis Kucinich             1           NA

Mike Gravel                 *           NA

Other (vol.)                1            *

None of these (vol.)        2            2

Would not vote (vol.)       *            1

No opinion                  3            4

The only major change there is that Obama has gained on Hillary quite a bit.  A Gore candidacy may have shaken things up the most.  On the whole, though, it comes up pretty much as things have played out.

So, who would have thought that it would turn out to be HRC v BO as the final two for the Dems?  It’s taken us over a year to arrive at the point where the polls were pointing toward over a year ago!  The long campaign has shaken out abut how it was showing it would a year ago.

Now, on the Repug side of things:

25. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, George Pataki, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore, or Ron Paul), for whom would you vote?

NET LEANED VOTE:

                     1/19/07     12/11/06

Rudy Giuliani           34           34

John McCain             27           26

Mitt Romney              9            5

Newt Gingrich            9           12

Chuck Hagel              *            *

Tommy Thompson           1            2

Mike Huckabee            1            *

Duncan Hunter            *            1

George Pataki            2            3

Sam Brownback            1            1

Tom Tancredo             1            *

Jim Gilmore              1           NA

Ron Paul                 1           NA

Other (vol.)             *            *

None of these (vol.)     2            6

Would not vote (vol.)    1            *

No opinion               9            9

Rudy and McCain were the early leaders there.  The campaign has at least had more dramatic ups and downs than the Dem side has.  McCain at one point during the summer, if I remember right, had melted down to single digits.  Rudy has melted down all the way out of the race.  Romney, the Huckabee and Paul have all improved on their showings in the poll.  Would Newt have had a similar impact on the Repug race as Gore might have had on the Dem side (probably not).  So, save for the meltdown of America’s Ex-mayor, the Repugs have settled down pretty much as anticipated, with two dark horses (Huckabee and Paul) showing the greatest uptick.

Why look at this?  Obviously, progressives weren’t going to have a heck of an impact on the Repug side.  We thought we might be able to on the Dem side.

For all intents and purposes, we haven’t.  JE, while advancing a progressive sounding agenda, probably got what he would have just for being the last VP candidate (within the concept, the heir apparent to the presidential nomination).  The other progressive candidates never caught on.

The question then is where will the progressives/netroots go with this?  The answer, to be worked on from all sides probably, won’t be known until 2010 at best.  We can still have an effect by helping progressives get elected to positions in Congress, State Houses and Legislatures.  For 2008 presidentially, at least, we’re on the outside looking in.

This is written with the acknowledgement that HRC or BO would be better than any of the Repugs, and probably better than any of the possible third party candidates (although, who knows, there might be a Gore/Paul unity ticket in the works).

Inside the last parentheses was meant as snark, sort of.  I know of no such suggestion of a Gore/Paul ticket.

Originally posted here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

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3 comments

  1. All those millions of $ just to get to where we were a year ago!

  2. “Lucky to be invited to a light brunch!”

    But that’s only because you didn’t offer “Thrown under the bus, as usual.”  as an option.

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