Congressional races by state: AR, OR, IA, ME, UT

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC, NE and CA; today, AR where the deadline is 3/10, OR where it is 3/11, IA where it is 3/14, ME where it is 3/15, and UT

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

AR has 4 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican

OR has 5 districts, 4 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican

IA has 5 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

ME has 2 districts, both held by Democrats

UT has 3 districts, 1 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

AR-01    D+1     .60        Berry           No             Safe

AR-02    R+0     .50        Snyder          No             Safe

AR-04    D+0     .54        Ross            No             Safe

IA-01    D+5     .66        Braley          No             Safe

IA-02    D+7     .67        Loebsack        Yes            Vul

IA-03    D+1     .64        Boswell         No             Somewhat vul

ME-01    D+6     .80        Allen (retiring for senate)    Somewhat vul

ME-02    D+4     .82        Michaud         No             Safe

OR-01    D+6     .49        Wu              No             Safe

OR-03    D+18    .31        Blumenauer      No             Safe

OR-04    D+0     .55        DeFazio         No             Safe

OR-05    D+1     .57        Hooley          No             Slight vul      

UT-02    R+17    .55        Matheson        Probably       Safe

As for those held by Republicans:

AR-03 R+11 .64

AR-03 is the NW corner of AR, bordering OK and MO

Boozman, first elected in 2001, has won easily, even against opponents with competitive funding

He’s got a different kind of challenger in 2008, though… David Pritt is on active duty in Iraq.  

IA-04 D+0 .77

IA-04 is the central part of IA

Latham, first elected in 1994, has had a couple close wins: in 2002 he got 55%, in 2006 he got 57% against Selden Spencer, spending $1.1 million to $500,000

In 2008, his opponent is William Meyers

IA-05 R+5  .44

IA-05 is the Western part of IA, bordering NE, SD, and MN.

King, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against opponents with modest funding. It’s not clear if he’s running again.  He might run for Senate against Harkin.

Rob Hubler is the only announced candidate; he’s also got a blog

OR-02 R+11 .60

OR-02 is the eastern 2/3 of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA.

Walden, first elected in 1998, has not been seriously challenged. There is a rumor he may retire now to run full time for Governor in 2010.

There are no confirmed challengers

UT-01 R+22 .54

UT-01 is the NW part of UT, including the Great Salt Lake

Bishop, first elected in 2002, has won easily without spending much, against underfunded opponents.

There is no confirmed challenger

UT-03 R+26 .53

UT-03 is more or less the middle of the state.

Cannon, first elected in 1996, has won easily

There is no confirmed Democratic challenger