Congressional races by state: CA

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC and NE; today, CA where the deadline is 3/9

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NC has 53 congressional districts.  34 held by Democrats and 19 by Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

CA-01     D+10    .42      Thompson         No             Safe

CA-05     D+14    .06      Matsui           Yes            Safe

CA-06     D+21    .61      Woolsey          Yes            Safe

CA-07     D+19    .14      Miller           No             Safe

CA-08     D+36    .05      Pelosi           Yes            Safe

CA-09     D+38    .06      Lee              Yes            Safe

CA-10     D+9     .45      Tauscher         Yes            Safe

CA-11     R+3     .49      McNerney         Yes            Somewhat vul

CA-12     D+22    .13      Lantos (Retiring)Yes            Prob. safe

CA-13     D+22    .08      Stark            No             Safe

CA-14     D+18    .49      Eshoo            No             Safe

CA-15     D+14    .16      Honda            No             Safe

CA-16     D+16    .18      Lofgren          No             Safe

CA-17     D+17    .43      Farr             Yes            Safe

CA-18     D+3     .16      Cardoza          No             Safe

CA-20     D+5     .16      Costa            No             Prob. safe

CA-23     D+9     .35      Capps            Yes            Safe

CA-27     D+13    .22      Sherman          No             Safe

CA-28     D+25    .24      Berman           Only a Green   Safe

CA-29     D+12    .05      Schiff           Yes            Safe

CA-30     D+20    .45      Waxman           No             Safe

CA-31     D+30    .07      Becerra          No             Safe

CA-32     D+17    .10      Solis            No             Safe

CA-33     D+36    .04      Watson           No             Safe

CA-34     D+23    .17      Roybal-Allard    No             Safe

CA-35     D+33    .08      Waters           No             Safe

CA-36     D+11    .21      Harman           No (primary)   Safe

CA-37     D+27    .06      Richardson       No             Safe

CA-38     D+20    .19      Napolitano       No             Safe

CA-39     D+13    .22      Sanchez          No             Safe

CA-43     D+13    .21      Baca             Yes            Safe

CA-47     D+5     .15      Sanchez          Yes            Safe

CA-51     D+7     .12      Filner           No             Safe

CA-53     D+12    .16      Davis            Yes            Safe

Those held by Republicans….

CA-02 R+13 .44

CA-02 is the central part of nothernmost CA, between the 1st (on the coast) and the 4th (interior), from the OR border to the outskirts of Sacramento.

Herger, first elected in 1986, has won every election since 1990 with between 61% and 66%.

No apparent challenger

CA-03 R+7 .45

CA-03 is one of the many many strange shaped districts in CA. It includes some of Sacramento’s suburbs, and then a wedge all the way to the NV border, plus some land west of Sacramento.

Lungren, first elected in 1978, but out of the house for a while and re-elected in 2004, won reasonably easily in 2004 and 2006, against underfunded opponents.  He got the same votes as Bush did, in 2004. In 2006, he beat Bill Durston 59-38, outraising him by 2-1.

Durston is running again.

CA-04 R+11 .69

CA-04 is the interior part of northern CA

Doolittle, first elected in 1990, is quitting (will he go to jail?) He won easily until 2006, when Charlie Brown lost by only 49-46.  There are several Republicans running.

The Democratic challenger is Charlie Brown .  Ordinarily, running in an open seat is easier than against an incumbent, but Doolittle was ethically challenged.  Could be interesting

CA-19   R+10  .41

CA-19 is just about in the center of the state, including part of Fresno.

Radaonovich, first elected in 1994, has usually won easily.  In 2004, he got about as many votes as Bush.  In 2006, his challenger was TJ Cox, who was well-funded, but lost 61-39.

There is no confirmed challenger.

CA-21 R+13 .36

CA-21 is CA’s central valley

Nunes, first elected in 2002, has won easily.  In 2004, he got 8,000 more votes than Bush

Stephen Haze ran against Nunes in 2006, and lost 67-30.  But he’s running again.  (Nice to have a bilingual web site!)

CA-22 R+16 .44

CA-22 is an east-west strip of central CA, from the Pacific to Bakersfield and Ridgecrest

McCarthy, first elected in 2006, is the successor to long-time congressman Bill Thomas.  He won without serious opposition in the primary or general

There is no confirmed challenger.

CA-24 R+5 .61

CA-24 is just off the coast (separated from the coast by the incredibly narrow CA-23)in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties

Gallegly, first elected in 1986, has won easily, even when his opponents had reasonable money.  In 2006, he beat Jill Martinez 62-38, although he outspent her by 6-1.

Martinez is running again, as is Chip Frasier (oy, does that web site need help! There are typos!) and Elliot Maggin

CA-25 R+7  .43

CA-25 is the eastern part of CA, where it angles against NV, most of it is almost uninhabited (the Mojave and Death Valley). It moves inland to include Barstow and Santa Clarita, nearly on the Pacific.

McKeon, first elected in 1992, has won without difficulty.

There are no confirmed challengers

CA-26 R+4  .26

CA-26 is a sort of blobby shaped district mostly San Bernadino county

Dreier, first elected in 1980, has occasionally gotten under 55%, even against poorly financed opponents.  In 2006, he got 57% against Cynthia Matthews, despite outspending her by more than 100-1 (Matthews spent only $17,000).  This could get interesting

This year, Russ Warner is running; his ActBlue page has already raised almost $200,000. Also running is Hoyt Hilsman (nice website, with video and stuff).

CA-26 R+8 .22

CA-40 is a sort of upside down U-shaped district in Southern CA, including Fullerton and Orange.

Royce, first elected in 1992, has gotten roughly 2/3 of the vote in every election since 1994. In 2004, he did considerably better than Bush

There are two declared challengers: Florice Hoffman (who lost in 2006 and who may not be running….) and Christina Avalos who  seems like a real progressive (if someone knows her, tell her to add a donation link on her website….)

CA-41 R+9  .33

CA-41 is a wedge shaped district, mostly San Bernadino county.  Although it extends to the NV and AZ border, most of the people are in the SW corner, in towns like Redlands, Highland, and Apple Valley.

Lewis, first elected in 1978, is retiring in a cloud of ethics. There are at least 3 Democrats running:

Rita Ramirez Dean

Tim Prince

Pat Morris

CA-42 R+10 .39

CA-42 is shaped roughly like a fat T, with the NE at Chino, the NW at La Habla, and the S at Mission Viejo

Miller, first elected in 1998, has won easily the last few times, in 2006 he was unopposed, in 2004 he did considerably better than Bush.

But, now, he’s under investigation by the FBI .. uh oh.

And he has two challengers:

Kossack CanYouBeAngryandStillDream , whose real name is Ron Shepston and Ed Chau

CA-44 R+6  .39

CA-44 runs north from San Clemente to Riverside.

Calvert, first elected in 1992, has won fairly easily, the last three times against Louis Vandenberg, who had almost no money.

Vandenberg is running again, as is Bill Hedrick .  It’s becoming evident that Calvert is a crook, so maybe we have a better chance; not only was he involved in shady land deals, but he was arrested in a car with a mostly unclad female who had her head in his lap (see his arrest record ). He said they were ‘just talking’.

CA-45 R+3  .37

CA-45 is an east-west strip near the southern border of CA, running from AZ almost to the Pacific

Bono, first elected in 1998, has won easily, even when, as in 2006, her opponent raises considerable funds.  

At least two Democrats are running: Paul Clay and David Hunsicker.

CA-46 R+6  .30

CA-46 is coastal CA, near the town of Long Beach, it consists of two main parts connected by a tiny strip of land (which is in CA-36 and 37), and also of two islands.

Rohrabacher, first elected in 1988, has won fairly easily since.

His opponent in 2008 is Steve Blount

CA-48 R+8 .46

CA-48 is more or less centerd on Irvine, and includes Newport Beach and Laguna Niguel

Campbell, first elected in 2005, won easily in 2006, beating Steve Young 60-37.  Campbell raised $2 million to Young’s $400,000.

Young is running again.  Steve has written a bunch of diaries on dailyKos

CA-49 R+10 .41

CA-49 is northern San Diego and southern Riverside counties.

Issa, first elected in 2000, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

His opponent in 2008 is Robert Hamilton

CA-50 R+5 .41

CA-50 is a triangle in the SW corner of CA, entirely surrounding CA-53, which is the center of San Diego

Bilbray, was congressman from 1995-2001, then a lobbyist, now a congressman again, after Duke Cunningham left in ignominy.  In 2006, he beat Florence Busby twice; in the second, regular election, he won 53-43, despite Busby spending even more money than he did ($3.5 million to $2.6 million).

His opponent in 2008 is Nick Leibham .  

CA-52 R+9  .44

CA-52 includes suburbs of San Diego and the mountains and dessert interior.

Hunter, first elected in 1980, is retiring.  He won easily.

There are a whole bunch of people running. Democrats include:

Mike Lumpkin

Jim Hester

Vickie Butcher

Summary:

Only one Democratic seat is in any real danger.

Several Republican seats are: CA-04, CA-24, CA-46, and maybe CA-50 and CA-52

4 comments

Skip to comment form

    • plf515 on February 2, 2008 at 20:31
      Author

    Dang, CA is big!

  1. I’m in CA-9. The Bay Area is such an oasis of Blue that it’s hard to imagine any Repugs in this state.   McNerney has to hold that seat in CA-11 and I really hope Ron Shepston will pull a netroots upset in CA-42. Such a great guy.  

    plf – these essays are amazing.  I will create a Series tag for you and maybe we can also put this info in the Dharmapedia so we can access this info as the races heat up.  

Comments have been disabled.