Here’s part five of the second round of congressional races. Earlier parts are here
Georgia has 13 representatives: 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats
Filing deadline May 2, primary July 15
Note that GA districts changed in 2005 due to Republican redistricting.
Hawaii has 2 representatives, both Democrats
Filing deadline July 22, primary Sept 20
Idaho has 2 representatives, both Republicans
Filing deadline March 21, primary May 27
District: GA-01
Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville
Representative Jack Kingston (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin Unopposed
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Notes on opponents In 2006, Joe Nelson raised just over $100K, Kingston about 10 times as much
Current opponents Bill Gillespie
Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)
Assessment Long shot, although Gillespie is a war veteran, which should play well here
District: GA-02
Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus
Representative Sanford Bishop (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 67-33
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Notes on opponents Each raised about $25K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)
Assessment Safe
District: GA-03
Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state
Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 76-24
Bush margin 2004 70-29
Notes on opponents neither raised much over $50,000
Current opponents None declared, but several considering (see WIKI)
Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: GA-04
Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta
Representative Hank Johnson (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 28-71
Notes on opponents Catherine Davis raised $230 K to Johnson’s $786K. Johnson replaced Cynthia McKinney and did even better than she did against Davis
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: GA-05
Location Atlanta and some suburbs
Representative John Lewis (D)
First elected 1986
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 26-74
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)
Assessment Safe
District: GA-06
Location Northern central GA
Representative Tom Price (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 70-29
Notes on opponents Steve Sinton raised $100K to Price’s $2 million
Current opponents Only a primary declared
Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South
Assessment Long shot
District: GA-07
Location Northern central GA
Representative John Linder (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin Unopposed
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Notes on opponents no money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)
Assessment Long shot
District: GA-08
Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie
Representative Jim Marshall (D)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Notes on opponents In both 2004 and 2006, this was hotly contested, with the Republicans raising about the same as Marshall each time (roughly $1 million in 2004 and $2 million in 2006)
Current opponents A primary from Steve Nowak, and in the general, Rick Goddard, the NRCC candidate
Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).
Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don’t use that term lightly. Is it worth it? I don’t really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district? It partly depends on turnout. This is one district where Obama may have coattails, in that I have to assume he would draw more Blacks into the race. But I can’t find much about Nowak. Marshall is vulnerable, in any case
District: GA-09
Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC.
Representative Nathan Deal (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 77-23
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Joe Inman , maybe others
Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 7th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: GA-10
Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) and including Macon and Augusta
Representative Paul Broun (R)
First elected 2007
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Bobby Saxon
Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)
Assessment Long shot
District: GA-11
Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta
Representative Phil Gingrey (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Notes on opponents In 2006, the opponent raised no money. 2004 is not really relevant
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 5th most Republican (per Cook PVI)
Assessment Long shot
District: GA-12
Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta
Representative John Barrow (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000
2004 margin 52-48
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Notes on opponents Max Burns, the opponent in both 2004 and 2006, raised lots of money; in 2004, he outspent Barrow by $1 million
Current opponents Chris Edenfield and Wayne Mosley and Ray McKinney; maybe others
Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)
Assessment Vulnerable
District: GA-13
Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta
Representative David Scott (D)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 40-60
Notes on opponents Deborah Honeycutt, in 2006, raised $1.3 million, almost exactly even with Scott
Current opponents Honeycutt again
Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)
Assessment Probably safe
District: HI-01
Location Honolulu and immediate environs
Representative Neil Abercrombie (D)
First elected 1990
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 63-34
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Notes on opponents In 2004, Dalton Tanoaka raised over $200K, Abercrombie about $1 million. In 2006, Richard Hough raised very little
Current opponents Richard Hough (who lost in 2006)
Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian
Assessment Safe
District: HI-02
Location All of HI except Honolulu
Representative Mazie Hirono (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Notes on opponents Bob Hogue raised $200K to Hirono’s $1.4 million
Current opponents Bob Hogue
Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian
Assessment Safe
District: ID-01
Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise
Representative Bill Sali (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Notes on opponents Larry Grant raised about $750K to Sali’s $1 million
Current opponents Larry Grant
and
Rand Lewis (site down)
and
Walt Minnick
Sali is also being primaried
Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Even for a Republican, Sali is crazy. Even for an Idaho Republican Sali is crazy. He’s really nuts. He might even lose in this Republican stronghold (I hope he wins the primary)
District: ID-02
Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY
Representative Mike Simpson
First elected 1998
2006 margin 62-34
2004 margin 71-29
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson’s $570K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
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