Massachusetts has 10 representatives: All Democrats
Filing deadline is June 3, primary is Sept 16
Michigan has 15 representatives: 9 Republicans and 6 Democrats
Filing deadline is May 13, primary is Aug 5
earlier entries in this series are here
District: MA-01
Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west. Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT
Representative John Olver
First elected 1991
2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)
2004 margin Unopposed
Bush margin 2004 35-63
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe
District: MA-02
Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford
Representative Richard Neal (D)
First elected 1988
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MA-03
Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI
Representative Jim McGovern (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Notes on opponents In 2004, Ron Crews raised $150K to McGovern’s $1.1 million
Current opponents Todd Williams
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MA-04
Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston
Representative Barney Frank (D)
First elected 1980
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)
Bush margin 2004 33-65
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Chuck Morse
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook
Assessment Safe
District: MA-05
Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence
Representative Niki Tsongas (D)
First elected 2007
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents No declared opponents
Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)
Assessment Safe
District: MA-06
Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester.
Representative John Tierny (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 70-30
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised about $50K
Current opponents Rick Barton, who lost in 2006
Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-07
Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston
Representative Edward Markey (D)
First elected 1976
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 74-22
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Notes on opponents Chase, in 2004, raised about $62K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-08
Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea
Representative Michael Capuano (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-09
Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton
Representative Stephen Lynch (D)
First elected 2001
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin Unopposed
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Notes on opponents Jack Robinson raised $138K to Lynch’s $850K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MA-10
Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis
Representative Bill Delahunt (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 64-29
2004 margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Notes on opponents In 2006, Jeffrey Beatty raised $100K to Delahunt’s $1 million; in 2004, Michael Jones raised $260K to Delahunt $840K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Safe
District: MI-01
Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part.
Representative Bart Stupak (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 69-28
2004 margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 52-45
Notes on opponents neither recent opponent raised money
Current opponents Tom Casperson
Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Fairly safe
District: MI-01
Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan
Representative Pete Hoekstra (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin 69-29
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Notes on opponents Kimon Kotos ran both times, and did not raise money
Current opponents :
Fred Johnson
Scott Killips
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: MI-03
Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids
Representative Vernon Ehlers (R)
First elected 1993
2006 margin 63-35
2004 margin 67-31
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: MI-04
Location Central MI
Representative Dave Camp (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 64-38
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Notes on opponents Mike Huckleberry ran both time, and did not raise much – between $50K and $100K
Current opponents Andrew Concannon
Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)
Assessment Long shot
District: MI-05
Location Flint and suburbs
Representative Dale Kildee (D)
First elected 1976
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 67-31
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Notes on opponents In 2004, Myrah Kirkwood raised $250K to Kildee’s $600K. The 2006 opponent raised little
Current opponents Bill Kelly
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MI-06
Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan
Representative Frederick Upton (R)
First elected 1986
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 65-32
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Notes on opponents In 2006, Kim Clark raised $150K to Upton’s $1 million. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)
Assessment Safe
District: MI-07
Location Central part of souther MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek
Representative Tim Walberg (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 50-46
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Notes on opponents Sharon Renier got 46% while raising only $55K
Current opponents Mark Schauer
Jim Berryman
Possibly Renier again
Demographics 68th most rural (46%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 7th most vulnerable Republican seat, and most vulnerable one that isn’t open.
District: MI-08
Location Lansing and surrounding area
Representative Mike Rogers (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin 61-37
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Marinowski raised $500 K to Rogers’ almost $2 million. The 2004 opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: MI-09
Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit
Representative Joe Knollenberg (R)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 52-46
2004 margin 58-40
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Notes on opponents In 2006, Nancy Skinner raised $400K to Knollenberg’s $3 million
Current opponents Gary Peters
and Rhonda Ross
Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)
Assessment Vulnerable; superribbie (link above) calls this the 23rd most vulnerable Republican seat; Peters looks to be running a strong campaign
District: MI-10
Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron
Representative Candice Miller (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment long shot
District: MI-11
Location Far western suburbs of Detroit
Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 57-41
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Notes on opponents In 2006, Tony Truppiano raised $130K to McCotter’s $900K
Current opponents Spencer ,
Edward Kriewall
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this as the 56th most vulnerable Republican district
District: MI-12
Location Northern suburbs of Detroit
Representative Sander Levin (D)
First elected 1982
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 69-29
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MI-13
Location Detroit
Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 78-18
Bush margin 2004 19-81
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment safe
District: MI-14
Location Detroit
Representative John Conyers (D)
First elected 1964
2006 margin 85-15
2004 margin 84-16
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment
District: MI-15
Location Southern suburbs of Detroit
Representative John Dingell (D)
First elected 1955 (longest serving House member)
2006 margin 88% against minor parties
2004 margin 71-27
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
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