District: NJ-01
Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE
Representative Robert Andrews (D) may retire to run for senate
First elected 1990
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 75-25
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Notes on opponents In 2004, Daniel Hutchison raised $200K to Andrews $800K
Current opponents No declared Republicans
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for Democrats
District: NJ-02
Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic
Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Notes on opponents neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: NJ-03
Location The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.
Representative Jim Saxton (R) retiring
First elected 1984
2006 margin 58-41
2004 margin 63-35
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Notes on opponents In 2006, Rich Sexton raised $161K to Saxton’s $1.3 million
Current opponents John Adler
Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)
Assessment Vulnerable. With Saxton out, this swing district is prime pickup territory. It’s on the DCCC list , and superribbie ranks it the most vulnerable seat.
District: NJ-04
Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton. Bordering PA and the Atlantic
Representative Christopher Smith (R)
First elected 1980
2006 margin 66-33
2004 margin 67-32
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Josh Zeitz
Demographics 63rd highest income (median = $54K)
Assessment Slightly vulnerable superribbie ranks this 77 of all Republican seats
District: NJ-05
Location Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs
Representative Scott Garrett (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 55-44
2004 margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Notes on opponents Each raised about $500K, Garrett about $1 million in each
Current opponents Dennis Shulman and
Camille Abate
Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 55th of all Republican seats. Garrett’s winning percentage is shrinking, he did no better than Bush in 04, and that won’t be enough in ’08.
District: NJ-06
Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park
Representative Frank Pallone (D)
First elected 1988
2006 margin 69-30
2004 margin 67-31
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-07
Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter ?.
Representative Michael Ferguson (R) retiring
First elected 2000
2006 margin 49-48
2004 margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Notes on opponents In 2006, Linda Stender raised $1.9 million to Ferguson’s $3 million; in 2004, Steve Brozak raised $800K to Ferguson’s $2.8 million
Current opponents Linda Stender is running again, as is Upendra Chivakula and a few Republicans
Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)
Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 8th of all Republican seats, and it’s on the DCCC list . This is a competitive race near NYC, so all you NYC kossacks with time on your hands… this is a spot (but don’t ignore our own Vito Fosella, NY-13). Prime pickup material – Stender almost beat a fairly moderate Republican incumbent.
District: NJ-08
Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange
Representative Bill Pascrell (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 69-29
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Notes on opponents In 2006, Jose Sandoval raised $200K to Pascrell’s $1 million; in 2004, George Aijan raised $100K to Pascrell’s $900K
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-09
Location Close NYC suburbs
Representative Steve Rothman (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 68-32
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)
Assessment safe
District: NJ-10
Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs
Representative Donald Payne (D)
First elected 1988
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin No major party opposition
Bush margin 2004 18-82
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 25th fewest Whites (56.4%), 16th most Blacks (21.4%), 15th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: NJ-11
Location Central northern NJ, including Dover
Representative Rodney Freylinghuysen (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 62-37
2004 margin 68-31
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents Tom Wyka , who lost in 2006
Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)
Assessment Long shot
District: NJ-12
Location Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic
Representative Rush Holt (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 46-54
Notes on opponents In 2004, Bill Spadea raised $350K to Holt’s $1.6 million. In 2006, Joseph Sinagra raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)
Assessment Almost totally safe
District: NJ-13
Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap
Representative Albio Sires (D)
First elected 2006 (special election to replace Menendez, who became Senator)
2006 margin 78-19 (regular election)
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 31-69
Notes on opponents None raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%), 27th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: NM-01
Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert
Representative Heather Wilson (R) probably retiring to run for Senate
First elected 1998
2006 margin 861 votes out of 211,000
2004 margin 54-46
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2004, Richard Romero raised $2 million to Wilson’s $3.4 million; in 2006, Patricia Madrid raised $3.3 million to Wilson’s $5 million
Current opponents Martin Heinrich ; Rebecca Vigil-Giron ; Jessica Wolfe ; Robert Pidcock are the Democrats
Demographics 86th fewest Whites (48.5%), 92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)
Assessment Very vulnerable. superribbie ranks it the 4th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .
District: NM-02
Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico
Representative Steve Pearce (R) probably retiring to run for Senate
First elected 2002
2006 margin 59-40
2004 margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Notes on opponents In 2004, Gary King raised $1.1 million to Pearce’s $2 million; in 2006, Albert Kissling raised $180K to Pearce’s $1.3 million
Current opponents Bill McCamley who wrote on Daily Kos
Albert Kissling , the 2006 candidate, and
Frank McKinnon are the Democrats
Demographics 20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)
Assessment Vulnerable, superribbie ranks it the 28th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list
District: NM-03
Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT.
Representative Tom Udall (D) retiring to run for Senate
First elected 1998
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 69-31
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents Don Wiviott
Benny Shendo
Harry Montoya
Ben Lujan
and
Rudy Martin
are the Democrats
Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)
Assessment Slightly vulnerable. superribbie ranks it the 30th most vulnerable Democratic seat