It was inevitable. More than a million and a quarter people turned out yesterday to vote for Hillary Clinton, she won another large swing state by more than two hundred thousand votes, and those champions of democracy in the shrillosphere are again today begging someone to pull the plug on this race. Stop her before she wins again!
As Big Tent Democrat continues to try to get people to understand, demography is everything, in this race. After Clinton’s disastrous, and politically incompetent, final few weeks of February, she has been doing very well. She has been winning large states by mostly solid margins. She has been chipping away at Barack Obama’s popular vote lead. While Obama supporters continue to tout The Math, they continue to ignore the fact that Obama cannot win the nomination on pledged delegates. Once again, repeat after me: the superdelegates will decide the nomination. Obama cannot win without them. Clinton cannot win without them. The pledged delegate metric is only one, and because Clinton cannot catch Obama in that metric, her entire argument rests on the possibility of her ending up with the most popular votes. That’s a reasonable argument, and one that the uncommitted superdelegates are clearly willing to listen to. Of course, for that argument to even become part of the discussion is dependent upon Clinton’s prevailing in the popular vote, and that’s still very much an uphill climb, for her; but it is by no means impossible. And Obama supporters need to understand that.
Last night, Clinton once again denied Obama the knockout punch. Once again, she started with a large lead in the polls, he vastly outspent her, the polls showed him close, and possibly capable of winning, and she then held him off by a significant margin. Once again this took place in a state that was demographically favorable to her. North Carolina is next. For the first time in many weeks, Obama will be on his demographical home turf. In a large state, which could provide him with a large popular vote victory margin. On the same day, he can probably end this race by winning Indiana, which is more demographically favorable to Clinton, but which borders his home state of Illinois. He has, thus far, won every state that borders Illinois, and where Illinois’s friendly media markets have spillover influence. If Obama is going to end this race before June, it will be in two weeks. Win huge in North Carolina, and simply win in Indiana, and Clinton will have no chance of catching him in the popular vote, even including Florida. If Clinton wins Indiana, and somehow pulls off the upset in North Carolina, she will be the nominee. But barring a political disaster for Obama, she won’t win North Carolina. The demographics are too unfavorable. But if she holds down his victory margin, and wins Indiana, her popular vote possibility will remain alive. Once again, the dynamics are obvious. Once again, many will ignore them.
The good news for Obama, in the long campaign, is that all the bad news has now been aired. As Joan Walsh and others have pointed out, better now than in October. Rezko’s at trial, we’ve seen the Wright videos, we’ve heard the name Ayers, we’ve looked aghast at Obama’s flagless lapel. He’s also made some serious gaffes, and hopefully learned from the reactions. None of that has changed the demographic nature of the race. None of that has derailed his candidacy. We now know his vulnerabilities, and even though many Obama supporters continue to ignore the potential impact of those vulnerabilities, once the GOP 527s start toying with them, those vulnerabilities are not having an appreciable impact in the primaries. Should he close out the possibility of Clinton winning the popular vote, she will not prevail upon the superdelegates by arguing about those vulnerabilities. Clinton supporters need to understand that. Should Obama clinch the popular vote, he will have won both plausible arguments about the will of the people, and just as Obama supporters need to recognize the importance of the will-of-the-people argument in Clinton’s quest for the popular vote, Clinton supporters need to recognize that if she can’t make that argument, she has no valid argument.
Electability arguments won’t prevail against a candidate who has won both the most pledged delegates and the most votes; and Clinton has her own electability vulnerabilities, anyway. That’s another little reality that many Democrats need to face up to: despite the extraordinarily favorable political climate, both Democratic candidates have serious electability problems; and both candidates cannot legitimately blame anyone other than themselves. Race could be a factor, and so could gender, but both candidates have said and done things that only make their vulnerabilities worse. But those are problems for the summer and fall. The problem, now, is that we have a very split party, with two candidates still locked in an unresolved primary campaign, each of whom has a lot of very passionate support. In the blogosphere and the shrillosphere, we tend to see only one side of that split support; but when millions of people continue to turn out, in record numbers, to give Hillary Clinton solid victories in large states that will be key factors in the fall, calls for the race to end reveal nothing but bias and latent worries about her continually surprising (to some) electoral strength. Obama remains the clear favorite, but he hasn’t closed the deal. Cries for the superdelegates or party elders to end the race fly in the face of the very concept from which the Democratic Party draws its name. This race is not over. Many voters have yet had the chance to make their voices heard, and the consistently large turnout is proof that they like having that chance. It’s called democracy. Let the people decide.
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It’s called democracy. Let the people decide.
It really is just that simple, isn’t it?!!
(note to pf: please don’t wrong me… I waited for more than
a half hour to post this)
Interpretation of what that means is what the fighting is all about.
The supers deciding the primary isn’t EXACTLY democracy, lol.
But…better 1200 than the 9 who decided things in 2000…….I guess.
.
Btw, there is one other reason…
I’m fucking sick to death of this shit, goddam it!!!!
(not that I have called for it to end…jes sayin!)
let it roll on. we’re not ‘there’ yet. once we have a nominee, then it’s get her/him elected overwhelmingly (read margins too large to be cheated, if that is even still possible) and then gather round the big bon fire and show our new President just where his/her feet are going to be spending a lot of time. nice and toasty warm by the fire.
and the true believers can scream and justify and testify and take any hint of critiscm to their pals with shines to sob and we can ignore them too.
all this without torches. which are of course, next. @;-)
Obama wins the pledged delegate count, supers are unconvinced by Clinton’s (increasingly weak) case, and we go in to the convention with Obama’s nomination more or less decided. Now: if we could get there by letting the process take its course instead of ripping each other apart, I’d be a much happier person. 🙂
Obama wins the pledged delegate count, supers are unconvinced by Clinton’s (increasingly weak) case, and we go in to the convention with Obama’s nomination more or less decided. Now: if we could get there by letting the process take its course instead of ripping each other apart, I’d be a much happier person. 🙂
I’m still rooting for Edwards. I am delusional because I love my country and know a McCain victory will tear us asunder.
Biden had Obama pegged correctly–he’s articulate. But he has no substance and no record. At best, he’s JFK, and that’s not necessarily a good thing if you consider Iraq the new Vietnam.
Hillary is really Mrs. Bill–and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I would love to have Mr. Smooth-Competent back in the WH.
Edwards has grown in stature, just couldn’t buck the excitement of breaking the color/gender barrier. America needs to address poverty and only John did/does that adequately.
I’m rooting for a convention credential floor fight–and Edwards being the compromise nominee. I am very delusional.
fundraiser as spouse, who was only 2-term Dem President since FDR, cannot possibly defeat the refusing-to-wait-his-turn newcomer of the incorrect race who is too inexperienced to run a campaign.
Who is beating her at her loudly touted strength of winning moderates and switch voters.
She can genuinely keep this going till 2020.
She still can’t win it though.
the popular vote in this mess really pisses me off. But for someone as smart and knowledgeable as you to do it really surprises me.
You see, I happen to live in one of those states that has caucuses. And it also happens to be a state that Obama won 2:1. But because of the caucuses, our number of “popular” votes (something that should NEVER be considered in a system like this!!!) will count for way less. And how about the caucus states that don’t even report so-called “popular” votes. They went to all that trouble to play by the rules and in that scheme of things, their votes don’t count at all.
Hillary might not like the rules of the delegate process right now, but she has NO BUSINESS trying to change the rules now to even talk about popular vote.
I recognize the rules that allow the super-delegates to decide this one. I don’t like it, but its the system and we have to live with it this time around. But to even hint that the popular vote should be a measure in this race is absurd.
Disclaimer, the following is just my primal scream of pain-having seen that the “Primary that Won’t End” has been extended yet again. I… just… can’t… take… any…more…. I’m sure I’m not alone in suffering from “primary exhaustion”. I hope I’m alone in beginning to suffer from fear that the Dems will again blow the Presidential Campaign, because, trust me, it’s not a good place to be & that’s where I am right now.
I wish I could be as optimistic in trying to believe that the house divided against itself Campaign is ultimately a good thing. Instead, I find I’m coming to fear that these assessments may well be true-though I sincerely hope not– the results of 2000 & 2004 are too seared into my consciousness to be banished:
If the stakes weren’t so high and the consequences of damaging the eventual Democratic nominee to the point that “St. McCain” will somehow look like the better alternative to the same masses that elected Bush in 2000 & 2004-I’d be more sanguine about watching the democratic process play out during this endless primary. As it is, I just can’t bear to hear any more campaign coverage on TV or radio, & will skip the “analysis” in the papers.
No more debates, no more watching the primaries. I’ve simply had enough. I can’t take any more of the talking heads dissecting every phrase uttered by one of the Democratic candidates and its impact on the world. I can’t bear to listen to the Democrats continue to rip each other apart. But, most of all, I can’t bear to see St. John continue to get a free ride from the Democrats and from the media. I need some R&R, so…
I’m checking out of the endless Primary campaign, at least in the short-term. I was hoping that the Democratic Party would be united and going after the Republicans in full force by this time, but it’s not to be, & that’s the way it is, so I’ll just have to deal with it.
Jeez, why don’t you just come out and say the entire rationale for your post is based simply on racial electability, rather than hide behind euphemistic wonk words like ‘demography’.
Or is there some other demographic difference among the electorate of the various states you mention that I am missing?
you titled this “It’s called Democracy” and all your talking about is the race though the eyes of the pollsters (selected for your view) and a pro HRC blog which is so fanatical that it makes myDD seem rational. If her elctoral strengh is so strong why is Obama winning? Why is my right wing son who abandoned the Democratic Party due to the sleaze, as he call it, of the Clinton’s willing to vote for Obama. You’ve been bamboozled by Armando and the Clinton spin/fear machine. I have heard this story before from Blue Dogs, from the corporate media and those who seek to keep the status quo intact. There is nothing democratic about this essay, it’s just twisted arguement’s for your candidates horrible campaign, more ‘inevitable’ and spinning the vote. No democracy here, no respect for voters or issues, just the twisting of the rules cause she’s losing.
v.v.
That was my dream team.
voted for a Republican in my long life and won’t this year. Having said that, I have sat out elections where I could not support the Democratic candidate. My vote means a great deal to me, I don’t cast them lightly. Although I will never join the ranks of Hillary haters I have come to see how they feel justified. I will never understand people who give their energy over to negativity instead of working towards a solution. It’s not that my life is supposed to be better than that, it is because my life is better than that.