Aug 31 2008

Gustav Realities

(10 am. – promoted by ek hornbeck)

The Environmentalist has an article for Reuters on Gustav.

We’ve had reports of people ignoring the mandatory evacuation order.  Here’s what those who stay will (not may, will) face:

  • Gustav is pulling more heat out of the Gulf than Katrina.
  • The Gulf loop current is nearing 90 degrees.  That exceeds the high temperature that fed Katrina.
  • Tidal surges could exceed 20 feet; greater than Katrina.
  • The cone is narrowing toward Louisiana with New Orleans in the bullseye.
  • While it may not hit New Orleans, it still may.
  • There will be no city services.
  • The cool waters just offshore may not be able to sufficiently stop its momentum.
  • The wetlands, New Orleans’ only protection, are not returned enough to health to slow it down.
  • The levees are not built to hold above a certain strength of surge; one that Gustav may exceed.

Also: there are three named storms in Gustav’s wake that are on the same path; one that is nearing hurricane strength just east of the Caribbean.  

Anyone still there should get out fast.  Don’t leave it until the last minute.  The evacuations could break down at any time.  

Even climate scientists who ride in hurricane planes are getting out of the way of this one.  It’s a potential monster with no way to know how high the surge will become.  

5 comments

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  1. and the link to The Environmentalist.  We’re tracking the temperature of the water as the eye goes over.  If it hits the loop current, as it is on track to do, this will become a monster storm.

  2. Thanks for this, and any further information you can give us will be greatly appreciated.

    You had left a comment in my essay, I think you were referring to bensdad’s diary.

    Turns out he did evacuate.  If there was anyone else you were thinking about, let me know and I’ll be glad to drop in your comment.

    • kj on August 31, 2008 at 18:47
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    intrepid stormchaser and crew.  thank you for posting here.

    • pico on August 31, 2008 at 21:59
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    or at least, possible good news via Weather Underground.  It looks like the eyewall of Gustav is disintegrating, because a big chunk of it on the south end is missing.  It doesn’t mean the storm won’t carry one hell of a surge into land, but a disorganized storm is much less dangerous than an organized one.  That’s assuming an eyewall doesn’t regenerate, if that can happen with a chunk of it missing (this is way outside my area of expertise).

    I might be wrong on this, so please correct me if so.  I’m looking for any silver linings I can cling to at the moment.

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