Frank Luntz has been a GOP pollster for years. For anyone who isn’t familiar with his name, wikipedia describes him as “an American corporate and political consultant and pollster who has worked extensively in shaping talking points and political strategy for Republican candidates. Some of his most recent work has been with the Fox News Channel running focus groups after presidential debates.”
PBS Now with Bill Moyers describes Luntz this way:
Dr. Frank Luntz was named by TIME as one of “50 of America’s most promising leaders aged 40 and under” and he is the “hottest pollster” in America according to the BOSTON GLOBE. Luntz was the winner of the coveted Washington Post “Crystal Ball” award for being the most accurate pundit in 1992. The “Instant Response” focus group technique Frank has pioneered was profiled on 60 MINUTES in 1998.
Luntz has written, supervised, and conducted more than a thousand surveys and focus groups for corporate and public affairs clients in 11 countries since forming The Luntz Research Companies in 1992. In the 2000 election cycle, Luntz conducted almost two-dozen focus groups for MSNBC and CNBC, including live sessions following each night of both party conventions and presidential debates. His reoccurring segments on MSNBC/CNBC, “100 Days, 1000 Voices” won an Emmy Award in 2001. He was a primary night and election night commentator for THE NEWS WITH BRIAN WILLIAMS on MSNBC in 2000 and continue[d] those duties for HARDBALL in 2004.
Love or hate him, if any pundit or pollster claims a good handle on what will happen in Tuesdays election, none are more experienced or better qualified to know what they are talking about than Luntz.
In a RawStory article today Luntz is quoted as saying:
“I cannot foresee a scenario that John McCain is elected the President of the United States”
The RawStory article also includes an audio file of Luntz in a short interview with the BBC:
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will be less of a nail biter, now?
I was thinking that Colorado would be the make-or-break state, which potentially would mean a late night.
Right now my guess would be that we’ll know alot when the networks call Virginia. Polls there close at 7 pm Eastern.
Right now pollster.com has Virginia 50 for Obama and 44 McCain
If Obama didn’t carry a single other Bush state (but he will), Virginia would get him to 277, added to all the rock-solid Gore-and/or-Kerry states (264 electoral votes in those). Colorado, Nevada, (probably) Ohio, and (possibly) Florida will be icing on our cake.
If Virginia somehow fails to go blue (but Obama has been leading there by a polling consensus of 8 points for weeks), Obama can still get to 270 through Colorado or Ohio or Florida or even Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina. There are lots of different ways for Obama to do it, and only one of them has to come true (though several of them probably will). That’s why Republican pollsters who know what they’re talking about are a bit dispirited these days!
There’s a malignancy that’s been nurtured by the dog-whistle messages. I pray it goes into remission and recovery. We’ve got a huge hole to climb out of here. The previous owners are emptying the till 24/7. They’re leaving us with nothing. We’ll have to build from scratch after clearing away the wreckage. This whole nation is one big NOLA/Galveston.
It’s time to begin again.
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Obama is ahead of McCain by 11 points at 53% to 42%, and…
And from RawStory again:
state of
MiseryMissouri, please do us proud.election night returns should be a fun night this time.
fingers crossed, spit twice over the left shoulder, turn around three times and stomp one foot
reading a NYTimes story
okay, i just want to say that i tried to read that book. i tried, really, really, really hard to read that book. my brain was/is simply too puny to grasp the details and names and fuck all else, i might as well have tried to read a book on physics. yet, this is what Obama is reading in the final days of this long campaign? shit, you know, i’d be doing good to be reading comic books.
okay.
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