Feb 18 2009

There’s More Fun With Numbers

( – promoted by ek hornbeck)

A Stars Hollow Gazette

I call these diaries Fun with Numbers because for me part of the attraction is working out the HTML (which delights Caribou Barbie who is easily distracted by bright and shiny things).  I really started paying attention to the economy when it became apparent the the W years were in fact nothing but a scam.

These are some pieces I wrote before I started having fun-

Happy Anniversary! covers the dates from October 1st to October 9th including the anniversary of the HIGHEST DOW EVER!, 14,164 on October 9, 2007.  It’s the first time I started having fun with numbers.

You’ll notice they’re all very red.

Over those 7 days alone (and those would be trading days) the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2,271.47 points.  Why use the DJIA?  Why not, it’s a broad and easily tracked indicator as well as one of the most popular.  Economists may quibble but I’m not an economist.

I’m a critic.

Fun With Numbers

I started my data set September 26th, the Bail Out Boost, followed immediately by September 29th, the Wall Street Snit Fit, the largest single day point loss for the Dow ever, -777.68.  Let’s take a moment to pause and reflect that it was because Congress (thank goodness for small favors) didn’t give Paulson 700 BILLION dollars for an extortion note he scribbled on the back of a napkin.

November 19th is the last time I go back all the way to the beginning because the table was starting to get a little long, but I don’t want people to forget how we must bow down before her Bartiromoness and all the Galts for they know ever so much more than us mere serfs and peons.

This one only covers 7 trading days and it has a lot a of green in it which made Caribou Barbie very happy, but it also includes November 20th when the Dow fell 444.99 points and finished at 7,552.29.

That’s the November bottom you keep hearing about on CNBC.

An extensive record of FAIL!

Madam Zelda, Madam Zelda- Do The Markets Lie?

No, the markets are perfect and flawless indicators.

But Wait!

1/21 Wednesday +279.01 8,228.10
1/22 Thursday -105.30 8,122.80
1/23 Friday -45.24 8.077.56
1/26 Monday +38.47 8,116.03
1/27 Tuesday +58.70 8,174.73
Top 1/28 Wednesday +200.72 8,375.45
1/29 Thursday -226.44 8,149.01
1/30 Friday -148.15 8000.86
Under 8K 2/2 Monday -64.03 7,936.83
2/3 Tuesday +141.53 8,078.36
Under 8K 2/4 Wednesday -121.70 7,956.66
2/5 Thursday +106.41 8,063.07
2/6 Friday +217.52 8,282.59
2/9 Monday -9.72 8,270.87
Geithner 2/10 Tuesday -381.99 7,888.88
2/11 Wednesday +50.65 7,939.53
2/12 Thursday -6.77 7,932.76
2/13 Friday -82.35 7,850.41
2/17 Tuesday -279.81 7,552.60

So Madam Zelda, what are your prognostications from these tea leaves?

We are 31 cents… 31 CENTS!!! away from the November Market Bottom you know, the one way back above the fold.

I therefore confidently predict we will have a dead cat bounce tomorrow.

Or a bloodbath!!!! because all kinds of technicals are broken.

Hopefully you’re into something safer by now than Citi or BoA.  Even Goldman Sachs is worried they’ve lost their stroke in D.C. hot off of CNBC and Nationalization is in the air.  Geithner better be prepared for a “holiday” to straighten out the books or maybe he’s already doing his sums but “serious” people are talking about the “Swedish” solution.

Strapped at the wrist.  One knife because it’s all you need.

So mishima I apologize for the aspersion but I hope we’ll not follow the Japanese path.

If we have any sense at all we’ll write off the whole shadow economy, or at least let some of it go for the 30 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR that SOME IDIOT FOOLS WITH MORE MONEY THAN BRAINS think it’s worth.  Your 30x leveraged derivatives are Confederate Currency.  Hold on to your certificates, you can sell them on e-bay as collectables.

The important part is to find a real bottom.

I heard Dow 4000 today on CNBC.

Cheer Up!

Maybe the whole thing ain’t gonna collapse and I expect that a lot of rational International people are now providing good advice.  It’s mostly a matter of sooner or later.

If we’re very very smart we’ll try to expand our domestic capacity to produce the way the Chinese are expanding thier capacity to consume.

13 comments

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  1. I find myself unable to modify my old tags.

    Anybody else think this is a problem?

  2. Tired …. must stay over for meeting… have worked overtime… now I look at numbers that tell me I will be working until I am 105.

    I want poetry.

  3. about your prescription to produce. Perhaps its because I’m missing the snark. But it sounds to me like the problem is all about supply exceeding demand.  

    • Temmoku on February 18, 2009 at 16:07
    • #

    away into that black hole created by Lindsay Graham….may he rot in Hell slowly and forever….Hey, it used to be a nice little “nest egg” before Bush got in and decided I wasn’t deserving of special attention. Oh well, it was only numbers on a statement sheet anyway..not like it was actually real money!

  5. the money was funny and the market made it all up the pit it’s all falling into has no bottom. It’s like jumping into black hole, to follow it will just suck you into the unfathomable void. When you come out the other side where will it be?

    I just got off a thread where everyone was talking about the value of having a good FICA score and how great credit cards were if you new how to play the game to your advantage.. They too sited numbers based on strange factors based on the game at hand. The game that has bled the world dry and now wants it to give them more, yet offers no way for the rest of us to pay the vig.

    Our business for now is doing great. If ever a market needed researching it’s this one. As for retirement my 90 year old neighbor says everybody he knew who retired died of boredom. A benefit we can all quality for.        

  6. what does the stock market mean? If you’re in it for the long haul then either nothing (because it’ll eventually go back up) or nothing (because it’ll crash so hard that everybody will be in the same boat so we won’t have stuff but we’ll have lots of friends to commiserate with).

    In this way 0=0.

    Those who are chuckling because they got out of the market before it really tanked are still at risk. Maybe (like us) they’ve put the money in the bank or a credit union. And if the bank/credit union goes under and there aren’t enough Chases to take them over, protecting the deposits? I don’t believe that any money, anywhere, is safe.

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