So, Iran is having a ‘green’ revolution in response to the weekend’s election results.
First off, the people protesting against the results make those of us in the States look like slackers. Let’s face it: We had the 2000 elections stolen and we didn’t see the reaction we’re seeing in Iran. So, for being willing to face the government’s forceful reaction, the protesters deserve some respect.
Of course, we’re seeing what our media is willing to show us. We’re also hearing from the Iranian elite as far as what the revolution is about. So, we’re being spun. By saying spun, I’m not saying that Iranians don’t have a grievance. Far from it. The grievance, on the other hand, may not actually be about the election results. There were polls showing that Ahmadinejad had a rather sizable lead three weeks out that was actually larger than the announced results. Needless to say, we’re not hearing this point-of-view in the coverage of what’s going on in Iran.
Another point: Where are the workers? Where are the strikes which should be occurring? Where is a general strike? Ahmadinejad’s base is among the workers and the poor, not the elite. I would think that if the workers were against Ahmadinejad and the announced election results, seeing the protests, there would be various industrial actions. So far, from what I’ve been reading, this hasn’t been happening. So far this has been a bourgeois and elite revolution.
This all leads to the question as to what happens should the ‘green’ revolution succeed? Will Iran suddenly become a liberal Islamic paradise? Will the Supreme Leader change, or will the position be abandoned? More pointedly, will there be a new Shah? Will the status quo be maintained, but with different figureheads? Will it turn out that outside powers have been fomenting the revolution? Any of these results would be quite interesting, and each would probably have a different effect upon the world diplomatically.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next several days, weeks and months.