Jun 17 2009

Open Civil War Between Iranian Elite Factions?

( – promoted by buhdydharma )

Crossposted from Antemedius

Roving correspondent for Asia Times and analyst for The Real News Network Pepe Escobar explains how once again US Foreign Policy and meddling is backfiring and may lead to an US/Israeli attack on Iran, in Part 2 of a two part conversation with Real News CEO Paul Jay:

Real News Network – June 17, 2009

Struggle within Iranian elite,Pt.2

Pepe Escobar: Aggressive US and Israeli policy strengthens hand of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard

Part 1 is here.

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    • Edger on June 17, 2009 at 15:15
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  2. about the Revolutionary Guard.

    First, the leadership of the RG is not as monolithically supportive of Khameini as he suggests.  Case in point: reports that 16 members of the RG senior leadership (including a number of Iran-Iraq war heroes) were arrested Monday for trying to arm the protesters.

    Second, the Iranian Army and the RG are not the same thing.  While the RG does have a elite military capability, it should not be conflated with regular Army units whose leadership has already announced that they are not going to get involved in the internal unrest.

    Khameini appears to be relying on three main groups for his muscle:

    1. Loyal RG units

    As we have seen, the RG is already showing signs of discontent, and even if the dissenters have been squelched for the moment, we know that there are important elements inside the security apparatus who would welcome a new regime.

    2. Citizen militia

    If the RG flips, so will they.

    3. Foreign Arab mercenaries from Lebanon (Hezbollah).

    Arguably a counterproductive force, as their small numbers (about 5000) do not make up for the discontent bred by the appearance of non-Iranians clubbing Iranians.  The use of non-Iranian elements also helps discredit the regime’s claims that foreign infiltrators are the ones fomenting unrest.

    Simply put, securitywise, Khameini is on much shakier ground than Pablo suggests.  The Supreme Leader still appears to have a strong grip on the apparatuses of state control, but that grip could loosen very quickly if these protests continue for any length of time.

  3. Is Pepe Escobar on acid? Or am I?  Maybe it’s the camera man?  N’est pas?  

    I’ll have to watch listen (I’m afraid of getting another contact high) to this tomorrow.

    But, I will never join SA, Shape-shifters Anonymous, never.

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