The Congressional Budget Office has completed their “public option” number crunching…
AP this afternoon via MSNBC, updated 12:15 p.m. PT, Sat., Oct . 31, 2009
WASHINGTON – What’s all the fuss about? After all the noise over Democrats’ push for a government insurance plan to compete with private carriers, coverage numbers are finally in: Two percent.
That’s the estimated share of Americans younger than 65 who’d sign up for the public option plan under the health care bill that Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is steering toward House approval.
The underwhelming statistic is raising questions about whether the government plan will be the iron-fisted competitor that private insurers warn will shut them down or a niche operator that becomes a haven for patients with health insurance horror stories.
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Congressional Budget Office weighs in
The latest look at the public option comes from the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan economic analysts for lawmakers.
It found that the scaled back government plan in the House bill wouldn’t overtake private health insurance. To the contrary, it might help the insurers a little.
The budget office estimated that about 6 million people would sign up for the public option in 2019, when the House bill is fully phased in. That represents about 2 percent of a total of 282 million Americans under age 65. (Older people are covered through Medicare.)
The overwhelming majority of the population would remain in private health insurance plans sponsored by employers. Others, mainly low-income people, would be covered through an expanded Medicaid program.
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“The concern was that the public option would destabilize the bulk of private insurance, but in fact what Congress has fashioned is very targeted,” said economist Karen Davis, president of the Commonwealth Fund. “It’s not going to be taking away the insurance industry’s core business.”
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The version that Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has offered would let states opt out, probably leaving a smaller plan than the House would want.
Insurers aren’t buying the budget office analysis. Asked if it might soften that opposition, industry spokesman Robert Zirkelbach of America’s Health Insurance Plans responded with a curt “No.”
