Morning Migraine: The 20% Solution

(4PM EST – promoted by Nightprowlkitty)

Just in time for your Memorial Day Viewing Pleasure

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

White House energy czar Carol Browner said in a news release Sunday that government scientists believe the oil gusher would increase as much as 20 percent from the time the pipe is cut to when a containment valve is in place.

Browner says the Gulf oil spill is probably the biggest environmental disaster the U.S. has ever faced.

HuffPo commenter:

According to wikipedia, Browner earned more than one million dollars as a lobbyist in 2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Browner

Browner is now married to former Congressman Thomas Downey. The marriage, his second, her third,31][32] took place on June 21, 2007 in Riverhead, New York.[29]Downey heads a lobbying firm that includes clients involved in energy policy.[4 In 2006 she and Downey collaborated on behalf of Dubai Ports World, but were unable to convince Senator Charles Schumer to their view during the Dubai Ports World controversy.[33]

Her 2008 income was between $1 million and $5 million from lobbying firm Downey McGrath Group, where her husband is a principal.[42] She also reported $450,000 in “member distribution” income, plus retirement and other benefits from The Albright Group.[42]

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

The husband of Carol Browner, President-elect Barack Obama’s presumed pick for a new White House energy adviser post, has lobbied on energy and environmental issues, with clients including Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Keyspan Energy.

In 2006, Ms. Browner and Mr. Downey collaborated on behalf of Dubai Ports World, which had arranged to buy a company that operated six major U.S. ports, including ports in New York and New Jersey. The company, owned by the United Arab Emirate of Dubai, drew congressional furor. In February of that year, the two paid a visit to New York Sen. Charles Schumer to discuss the issue; Mr. Schumer played a central role in killing the ports deal.

Thanks to the finest minds in the world, nearly 6 weeks in, we know exactly what they’re dealing with:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

BP spokesman John Curry says the company does not know how much oil is contained the vast reservoir nearly three miles beneath the seafloor.

Curry said Sunday that the company didn’t have time to properly analyze how much was in the discovery well. He says if the oil rig had not exploded, BP PLC ultimately would have drilled another well to complete that analysis.

Curry says the uncertainty over how much oil is in the reservoir does not change BP’s response.

HuffPo commenter:

Let me help you, BP. According to:

[Klump, Edward “Spill May Hit Anadarko Hardest as BP’s Silent Partner” Bloomberg 2010-05-13]

…the Macondo Prospect is thought to contain roughly 50 million barrels:

Or, if you prefer, 200 Exxon Valdez’s.

I do love me some Arianna’s commenters.  check this out:  http://www.beowulfe.com/oil/  map, webcam, and oil spill pedometer 3 in one.

I will try to be helpful, too.

So thats 20% of 50,000 barrels a day = 60,000 barrels a day.  833 days at that rate. 2 and a 1/4 years.

I want to BOP with you baby, all night long, let’s BOP the night away !  5/30/10  

And great news !

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

During a tour of a BP PLC staging area for cleanup workers, CEO Tony Hayward said the company’s sampling showed “no evidence” that oil was suspended in large masses beneath the surface. He didn’t elaborate on how the testing was done.

Hayward said that oil’s natural tendency is to rise to the surface, and any oil found underwater was in the process of working its way up.

“The oil is on the surface,” Hayward said. “There aren’t any plumes.”

bp Tony of Deepwater Spinmeister is ready, willing, and able to cut the riser off the BOP with his light saber.  Wot underwater plumes?  Wot 50 million barrels ?  We don’t have no stinkin’ plumes in this here Golf !

Don’t forget, Hurricane Season Begins this Tuesday !  Since bp Tony says it’s all on the surface, that will make it easier for Mother Nature to scoop it up for us and carry it inland !   Good thing.  Ships and floating rigs need to get out of the way first.

Experts are predicting a busy hurricane season with powerful storms. Bastardi predicts seven named storms, five hurricanes and two or three major hurricanes will have an effect on land this year. Colorado State University researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray predict a 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. and a 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 14 to 23 tropical storms this year, including up to seven major hurricanes. “This season could be one of the more active on record,” agency Administrator Jane Lubchenco said.  

Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November. Early season storms are uncommon; the busy part of the season is in August through October. Stronger storms typically form during this time, like Katrina did in August of 2005.

A hurricane like Katrina “would be a worst-case scenario” with oil pushed far ashore, said National Wildlife Federation scientist Doug Inkley.

“It would suffocate the vegetation. You’d get oiled birds and other animals,” Inkley said. “It’s virtually impossible to clean up oil.”

How much longer until the heaviest part of the oil spill reaches Florida and Cuba ?  And when will the next Hurricane hit ?  5/30/10, NASA photo

BP Senior Drilling engineer Mark E Hafle:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05…

” Nobody believed there was going to be a safety issue. ”

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In April of this year, BP engineers concluded that the casing was “unlikely to be a successful cement job,” according to a document, referring to how the casing would be sealed to prevent gases from escaping up the well.        

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On June 22, (2009)  for example, BP engineers expressed concerns that the metal casing the company wanted to use might collapse under high pressure.

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After informing regulators of their struggles, company officials asked for permission to delay their federally mandated test of the blowout preventer, which is supposed to occur every two weeks, until the problems were resolved, BP documents say.

 

5 months. 7 possible hurricanes, 14 to 23 tropical storms…..  a well with a rotten bore hole casing…..   Greater than 20% chance.

What will the black rain look like ?