Predicting the Weather

Meteorology is a science.

• If the rock is wet, it’s raining.
• If the rock is swinging, the wind is blowing.
• If the rock casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
• If the rock does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
• If the rock is not visible, it is foggy.
• If the rock is white, it is snowing.
• If the rock is coated with ice, there is a frost.
• If the ice is thick, it’s a heavy frost.
• If the rock is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
• If the rock is under water, there is a flood.
• If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
• If the rock is missing, there was a tornado.

Economics?  No so much.

Jobless Claims Remain Elevated

By LUCA DI LEO And JEFF BATER, The Wall Street Journal

AUGUST 4, 2011, 8:34 A.M. ET

New claims for unemployment insurance fell by just 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 400,000 in the week ended July 30, the Labor Department said Thursday. That followed a 21,000 decline the previous week, which was revised from an originally reported 24,000 drop.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast claims would rise by 7,000 in the latest week.

…

Fears are growing that a new recession may follow the severe downturn of 2008 and 2009. Three former top officials at the Federal Reserve put the odds between 20% and 40% in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. A Labor Department report out Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate remained at 9.2% last month, more than two years after the recession ended.

Thursday’s report showed the number of continuing unemployment benefit claims — those drawn by workers for more than a week — rose by 10,000 to 3,730,000 in the week ended July 23.

…

U.S. consumers cut spending in June at the fastest pace in nearly two years, raising concerns that the economy is stalling largely because of underlying weakness following the financial crisis and not just temporary factors seen in recent months, such as higher prices for food and gas.