With 97% reporting I finally have Iowa results that are pretty firm-
The remaining 3% is returns from “Remote Caucuses” for Iowa residents who couldn’t be present in person which were held Overseas and in some other areas of the United States. Sanders has been winning those with 75% to whatever margins.
What does this mean? Mayo Pete and Bernie get the same number of Iowa’s minuscule (41) pool of Convention Delegates.
I’ll point out that these are “State Delegate Equivalent Units” and someone will have to explain that to me because Sanders led the Popular Vote after both the First asnd Second Alignments.
Sanders 24.7 26.5
Buttigieg 21.3 25.0
Warren 18.6 20.3
Biden 14.9 13.7
Klobuchar 12.7 12.2
So, why aren’t we hearing about those results?
Well, because things don’t look so good for the Corporatist Establishment Democrats and especially their favorite son, Joe Biden.
I’ll give the man credit, he’s admitted he took a hit.
Tom Perez (Chairman of the Democratic National Committee) on the other hand is busily working to minimize Biden’s defeat, now calling for a re-canvas of the Caucus results.
Because he didn’t like them.
I feel, along with Rachel Bitecofer (you know, the one who called 2018) that there is no such thing as a “Swing Voter” (6 – 7 % at most), that elections are won on Turnout and Motivation. Her amazingly prescient models are based on the Demographics of the Electorate and how it and its priorities change over time.
She correctly identifies that there is a seething super-majority of resentment at the abject failure of Neo Liberal policies for the last 40 years. Her diagnosis is that Populism can not be stopped (well, not and maintain a small “d” democratic system) and can only be channeled Left or Right.
She’s a colorful speaker and a militant feminist.
In addition she points out that Establishment Politicians, regardless of Party, have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo that brought them to power in the first place. She doubts that will be enough to allow them to keep control.
You would be delusional to imagine that our site is in the tank for Bernie Sanders. Some people don’t like him at all, while either he or Liz Warren would be fine with me. It’s not that I think they’re particularly Left mind you (their signature policies are supported by vast super-majorities and are therefore more properly termed- “Moderate” or “Middle of the Road” or “Consensus”) just they’re to the Left of everyone else.
Bitecofer says the reason for 2016 was the visceral loathing (not undeserved mind you) of Villagers and Elitist Neo Libs. While all the elements are in place for a crushing Democratic victory in November there is something that could screw it up.
That rage is still out there. It is still motivating Voters either to come out or stay home. The “safe” choice is not an Insider preaching Centrism and a return to a flawed Past that benefited only them and left 99% of the people behind. Candidates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and especially Biden could easily give us 4 more years of hell.