Carnac the Magnificent Says:

Your humble blogger was going to write a post about ‘second choices’ in the Primary race and how perhaps Edwards isn’t out of the running quite yet given he is likely the second choice of many primary voters.

Looking for the truth from prior years’ election cycles, there was evidence supporting this theory from the Republican side in 1999, with George W. Bush being the second choice of most primary voters that time around (bastages).

But then, I found an article written by Anne Kornblut for the Globe last cycle and said ‘screw it’.

Really, there is no way to predict this thing.

The article was titled – Dean gains in poll of N.H. It was dated December 14, 2003.

Have a look at this:

Over the past month, Howard Dean has carefully refashioned himself as the ordained Democratic pick for president, using key endorsements to shed his insurgent image and to create an aura of inevitability around his campaign. And in New Hampshire, at least, the approach has worked: Less than two months before the state primary, Dean holds a stronger lead than ever before, and is overwhelmingly viewed as the strongest Democrat against President Bush. Dean is ahead by 23 percentage points, with 42 percent favoring the former Vermont governor and 19 percent supporting his closest rival, Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, said the survey, conducted by KRC Communications Research for The Boston Globe and WBZ-TV. The endorsement from former Vice President Al Gore apparently helped, with 20 percent of those surveyed — including 15 percent of undecided voters — saying they are more likely to vote for Dean as a result.

LOL.

More:

“The only ray of hope for Kerry is that he’s still in second place,” said Gerry Chervinsky, who conducted the poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters.

Now, to those who say going negative never works, here’s a bit of foreshadowing:

Kerry aides issue a “Daily Dean Report” chronicling the front-runner’s alleged flaws, and the senator himself has taken aim at Dean’s perceived strength, accusing him of being misleading and inconsistent in his views. Last week, Kerry even began challenging Dean on his signature issue — opposition to the war in Iraq — saying that Dean had actually favored an amendment offered before the war began that would have allowed Bush to use military force. Gephardt picked up that attack, accusing Dean on Friday of being “all over the lot on this issue.”

The other contenders have made similar charges, pouncing on Dean’s refusal to open sealed records from his time as governor as evidence he has something to hide. Senator John Edwards of North Carolina accused Dean last week of being too “angry” to win the presidency, while Gephardt has been bashing the front-runner for flip-flopping on Medicare. And the Rev. Al Sharpton is also training his sights on Dean, last week issuing a statement demanding, “Will the real Howard Dean please stand up?”

It wasn’t just the media that turned on Dean. They all went after him. And it worked.

Also, there was this little tidbit on Kerry:

Kerry’s popularity has dropped, with 53 percent saying they think of him favorably — compared with 65 percent who felt that way in a similar poll in October. Another 20 percent now say they view Kerry unfavorably, a rise since the last poll, when 12 percent viewed him in a negative light.

Of those who do not support Kerry, the reasons ranged from preferring their own candidate (34 percent) to thinking Kerry is indecisive (14 percent) to simply not liking him as a person (18 percent) — figures that hardly pointed the way toward a Kerry comeback.

By contrast, Dean has a 70 percent favorability rating, with just 12 percent saying they view him unfavorably.

“As sad as it is to say, the more Kerry attacks Dean, the more Clark is going to benefit,” Chervinsky said. “Dean has this sort of teflon thing going on, as much as they want to hurt him.”

And we all know what happened from there. Remember, this was 3-weeks later in the primary season than we find ourselves today. Given early voting this time around, we appear to be at roughly the same spot in the cycle.

So, some simple lessons learned:

– Going negative doesn’t really ruin your chances.

– Primary Voters, much like the general voting population, are a fickle lot.

– Anything can happen.

So it’s back to talking about issues for me.

Our nominee will be our nominee. We need to focus on progress on the issues of the day vis-à-vis whichever one the fates decree.

Progress on our issues – it’s all that matters.