For previous diaries in this series, see here .
I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to swingstateproject and dailyKos
I am going by filing deadline. These are all states with filing deadlines in April or beginning of May
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
VA has 11 congressional districts, 8 Republicans, 3 Democrats
ND has 1 district, with a Democrat
GA has 13 districts, 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
GA-02 D+2 .26 Bishop No Safe
GA-04 D+22 .11 Johnson No Safe
GA-05 D+25 .09 Lewis No Safe
GA-08 R+8 .46 Marshall Yes Vul.
GA-12 D+2 .34 Barrow Yes Vul.
GA-13 D+10 .20 Scott Yes Safe
ND-AL R+??? .61 Pomeroy No Unclear
VA-03 D+18 .08 Scott No Safe
VA-08 D+14 .25 Moran Yes Safe
VA-09 R+7 .77 Boucher Yes Safe
As for seats held by Republicans
GA-01 R+13 .49
GA-01 is the southeastern corner of GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic
Kingston, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he’s had any opposition at all
His opponent this time is Bill Gillespie .
GA-03 R+18 .70
GA-03 is the western part of central GA, bordering AL
Westmoreland, first elected in 2004, won easily both times. He may run for Governor in 2010.
There’s no confirmed challenger, but several Democrats are considering running
GA-06 R+18 .72
GA-06 is in north central GA
Price, first elected in 2004, won unopposed in ’04 and easily in ’06
Several Democrats are considering running: Steve Sinton , who lost in 2006 has an amazing website. Also, Charles Brewer, who could probably finance his own campaign (he started Mindspring, the ISP).
GA-07 R+18 .59
GA-07 is more or less in the middle of GA
Linder, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he has had any opposition at all
GA-09 R+23 .80
GA-09 is northern GA, bordering TN and NC.
Deal, first elected in 1992, has won easily since the mid-1990s, often with no opposition
Joe Inman is apparently a confirmed challenger, but his website has been hijacked by a furniture store, and a couple others are considering running.
GA-10 R+13 .59
GA-10 is the northeastern corner of GA, bordering NC and SC and including Athens and Augusta
Broun is new, elected in a special election in 2007
One confirmed opponent is Bobby Saxon who has a nice website (YouTube, lots of links) and seems to be raising money ($44,000 in a month).
Another is James Marlow . This is a Republican district, but who knows? There are Republican challengers, and some of them are downright cuckoo (Whitehead, who may run again, said “Iraq is not a big deal” and called for the U. of GA to be bombed).
GA-11 R+17 .63
GA-11 is the northern part of western GA, bordering AL.
Gingrey, first elected in 2002, had a tough battle that year, but not since.
There’s no confirmed opponent, but several Democrats seem to be considering running
VA-01 R+0 .65
VA-01 is the northeast part of VA, bordering the Chesapeake Bay and MD
Wittman is new, he won a special election to replace Jo Ann Davis
No Democratic challenger
VA-02 R+9 .29
VA-02 is in northeast VA, including Virginia Beach and the portion of VA that is on the eastern side of Chesapeake Bay.
Drake, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2004 and a tougher one in 2006, winning by 5,000 votes out of 170,000.
This time her opponent is Glenn Nye, who has filed with the FEC but has no website yet. Drake seems vulnerable, I don’t know anything about Nye.
VA-04 R+5 .44
VA-04 is the southeastern part of VA
Forbes, first elected in 2001, has won easily since then against underfunded opponents. Apparently, it isn’t clear if he is running.
There is no sign of a Democratic challenger
VA-05 R+6 .67
VA-05 runs north-south through the middle of VA, from the NC border to Charlottesville.
Goode, first elected in 1996, is the bozo who objected to Keith Ellison taking his oath of office on the Koran. He has won easily, even against decently funded opponents.
One confirmed challenger is Tom Perriello
VA-06 R+11 .60
VA-06 is the northwestern part of VA, bordering WV and including Roanoke
Goodlatte, first elected in 1992, has won easily when he has had any opponent at all (no Democrat has run against him since 1998)
He does have an opponent this year Sam Rasoul who has a nice website. This is a strongly Republican district, but no one should go unchallenged, certainly not for a decade!
VA-07 R+11 .64
VA-07 includes Richmond and extends northwest, almost to the WV border
Cantor, first elected in 2000, has won easily, raising huge sums.
There is no declared Democratic challenger
VA-10 R+5 .72
VA-10 is the northern part of VA, bordering MD and WV.
Wolf, first elected in 1980, has won reasonably easily despite drawing well-funded opponents. In 2006, he beat Judy Feder 57-41, although each spent about $1.5 million
In 2008, Feder is running again, as is Mike Turner . Wolf also has a primary opponent.
VA-11 R+1 .60
VA-11 is a u-shaped district in northeastern VA, near DC
Davis, first elected in 1994, is apparently going to retire.
One confirmed Democrat is Doug Denneny , there are other Democrats considering it, and a bunch of Republicans as well.
Summary:
GA is one of the few states with vulnerable Democrats. Neither Marshall nor Barrow is exactly a progressive (to put it mildly) but they are better than any Republican that would replace them. Nothing looks good on our side here.
ND depends on who (if anyone) decides to run against Pomeroy
In VA, our best pickup chance seems to be VA-11
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