Bush Impeachment Polls

(9:30PM EST – promoted by Nightprowlkitty)

Thanks to Dennis Kucinich and his submission of 35 Articles of Impeachment against George W. Bush, impeachment talk is once again in the air!

Although, there are not many polling companies who have asked the question, “Should George W. Bush be impeached?”, there have been a few. And, it’s time to catalog those in one place and take a close look at what they tell us.

With impeachment diaries once again popping up and heated discussions on whether or not impeachment is warranted, popular or stands a chance of succeeding, are regular topics again. And many in the blogisphere seem to have some misconceptions. I’m going to focus on public perception here.

Here’s what we know…

June 30, 2005 Zogby International

To my knowledge this is the first poll that ever asked the question on impeachment. From Zogby:

In a sign of the continuing partisan division of the nation, more than two-in-five (42%) voters say that, if it is found that President Bush did not tell the truth about his reasons for going to war with Iraq, Congress should hold him accountable through impeachment. While half (50%) of respondents do not hold this view, supporters of impeachment outweigh opponents in some parts of the country.

The question asked in this poll was:

9. Do you agree or disagree that if President Bush did not tell the truth about his reasons for going to war with Iraq, Congress should consider holding him accountable through impeachment?

The internals of this poll(pdf) shows 59.4% of Democrats, 24.7% of Republicans, 42.7% of Independents and 35.8% of Libertarians supported impeachment. It should be noted that the overall approval rating of George W. Bush in this same poll had slipped to 43%.

October 11, 2005 – Ipsos Public Affairs commissioned by AfterDowningStreet.org

The poll found that 50% agreed with the statement:

“If President Bush did not tell the truth about his reasons for going to war with Iraq, Congress should consider holding him accountable by impeaching him.”

44% disagreed, and 6% said they didn’t know or declined to answer. The poll has a +/- 3.1% margin of error.

Among those who felt strongly either way, 39% strongly agreed, while 30% strongly disagreed.

“The results of this poll are truly astonishing,” said AfterDowningStreet.org co-founder Bob Fertik. “Bush’s record-low approval ratings tell just half of the story, which is how much Americans oppose Bush’s policies on Iraq and other issues. But this poll tells the other half of the story – that a solid plurality of Americans want Congress to consider removing Bush from the White House.”

The methodology of this poll was different from Zogby in that it offered four possible answers, Strongly Agree, Somewhat Agree, Somewhat Disagree and Strongly Disagree. The

internals of this poll(pdf) shows support by 72% of Democrats with 59% strongly agreeing, 20% of Republicans with 11% strongly agreeing and 56% of Independents with 46% strongly agreeing. Presidential approval at this time was somewhere around 36% according to PollingReport.com.

In discussions I’ve read here recently, these polls get discredited by some who insist that it is nearly impossible to prove that George Bush intentionally lied about the reasons for going to war with Iraq, when in fact, the question asked was based on him telling the truth.

I submit this is a false argument, because I do not believe you have to prove a person intentionally lied, to prove they did not tell the truth. If I was asked, “What is the air we breath made of?” and I respond, “Nitrogen”, I have not lied because the air we breath is made of nitrogen. But I also didn’t tell you the truth, because I know full well that the air we breath is approximately 80% Nitrogen, 20% Oxygen and some trace elements. Proving that Bush did not “tell the truth” only requires that we prove he was aware of other information that he did not disclose.

November 11, 2007 American Research Group, Inc. From ARG:

A total of 64% of American voters say that President George W. Bush has abused his powers as president. Of the 64%, 14% (9% of all voters) say the abuses are not serious enough to warrant impeachment, 33% (21% of all voters) say the abuses rise to the level of impeachable offenses, but he should not be impeached, and 53% (34% of all voters) say the abuses rise to the level of impeachable offenses and Mr. Bush should be impeached and removed from office.

This poll actually contains polling information from March 15, 2006, July 7, 2007 and November 11, 2007. The internals, shown in the link above also contains questions regarding the impeachment of Cheney and Bush’s commuting of Scotter Libby’s prison sentence. Again the methodology of these polls were different.

In the March 15, 2006  and July 7, 2007 polling, the question asked was:

Do you favor or oppose the US House of Representatives beginning impeachment proceedings against President George W. Bush?

The March 15, 2006 results did not show the breakout by political affiliation, but 42% were in favor, 49% opposed, with 9% undecided.

The July 7, 2007 results, again asking the same question, were broken out by “All Adults” and “Voters” with All Adults responding 45% favor, 46% opposed. Amongst Voters the results were 46% favor, 44% opposed. The breakout by party affiliation shows Democrats favoring 69%, Republicans 13% and Independents 50%.

With the November 11, 2007 results, the polling metodology was again changed asking the question differently:

Which one of these four statements do you agree with about President Bush:

1. President Bush has not abused his powers as president.

2. President Bush has abused his powers as president, but the abuses are not serious enough to warrant impeachment under the Constitution.

3. President Bush has abused his powers as president which rise to the level of impeachable offenses under the Constitution, but he should not be impeached.

4. President Bush has abused his powers as president which rise to the level of impeachable offenses under the Constitution and he should be impeached and removed from office.

This poll seems to be trying to ask 2 questions at the same time. One part of the question is, “Has President Bush abused his powers as president that rise to the level of impeachable offenses”, the other asks “should he be impeached and removed from office”. Comparing these results with the results of the other polls. Question #3 is what makes it difficult. Let’s see what we can make of this one.

If we look at the first part of this question, “Has President Bush abused his powers as president that rise to the level of impeachable offenses”.  The results show All Voters agreeing 55%, with Democrats agreeing 75%, Republicans 30% and Independents 60%. Yes! That is correct! 30% of Republicans believe that Bush has committed impeachable offenses!

The second part of the question, “should he be impeached and removed from office”, shows 34% of All Voters agreeing, 50% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans and 34% percent of Independents. Let me repeat that, On November 11, 2007, 18% of Republicans believe President Bush should be impeached and removed from office and 30% believe he has committed impeachable offenses!”

It’s impossible to really discern why someone would choose selection #3 in this poll. Possibilities include, Cheney becoming president, not worth the effort at this point or the possibility that it would fail. I’ll let you fight that out!

Looking at the overall results, it’s clear that there is strong support for impeachment among the American Public. As recently as November of 2007, more than half the population believes President George W. Bush has committed impeachable offenses and 34% believe he should be impeached and removed from office. And that’s before the first day of testimony!

Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders believe that impeaching President Bush would harm our chances in November. These polls tend to disprove that theory when 60% of the coveted Independents, so important to victory in November, believe the president has committed impeachable offenses. The Democrats won control of Congress in 2006, in part, because the American public wanted to stop the abuses of the Bush Administration. That seems to be something Nancy Pelosi has forgotten!

I did not not include online polls such as the one done by MSNBC with over 705,000 responses in this analysis because of their unscientific method and possibility of being hacked. If you are aware of any other scientific polls regarding impeachment, post a link and I’ll update accordingly!

The next time someone tells you there is no support for impeachment or that impeachment will hurt our chances in November… Well… You know what to tell them!!

And a tip of the hat to the RadicalGardener who pointed me to the American Reasearch Group poll!

Update:

Another tip of the hat to RadicalGardener! She pointed me to 2 current online polls from AOL and USA Today Both are receiving strong support! Click the links and register your opinion on the national stage!

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