What is the next move in the chess match? First Georgia launches an overnight blitzkrieg into South Ossetia. Next the Russians respond with overwhelming force to push out Georgian forces from South Ossetia and Abkhazia and then advance to occupy the east-west highway at Gori and the military and commercial port facilities at Poti. Then the U.S. and Poland sign an agreement for basing U.S. radars and antimissile systems in Poland.
So what is likely to happen next?
It’s about the rockets, stupid.
Expect early sales of Russian anti-ship missiles and anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran and Syria.
The Sunburn (Moskit) anti-ship missile can be launched from a variety of platforms, and it is lethal at ranges of up to 250 kilometers, especially when fired in salvos.
The Iranians already have the Russian Tor 1 anti-aircraft system in their arsenal. It seems likely that the Russians would now move swiftly to provide them also with the longer range (up to 90 kilometers) A-300 system.