1. The New York Times reports Democrats test messages in early nationwide ads.

   A coast-to-coast onslaught of presidential campaign advertisements began rolling out this week, with Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton already spending millions on commercials in Feb. 5 nominating states on a scale more reminiscent of a general election…

   By choosing to spend several million dollars each on commercials that will run simultaneously in more than a dozen states over the next 10 days – and, in Mr. Obama’s case, on CNN and MSNBC as well – Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are being driven by the tight nature of the race thus far and by the bunching of Democratic nominating contests in 22 states on Feb. 5…

   Even the cable networks said they were caught off guard by the decision of Mr. Obama’s campaign to take to the air nationally nearly 10 months before the November election, instead of just focusing on local advertising in states holding contests on Feb. 5.

   By comparison, Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee in 2004, did not buy advertising time on CNN until that spring, when his nomination was assured and he began focusing on November. He did not buy time on MSNBC until after the nominating convention that summer.

   And while Clinton and Obama commericials are reaching viewers, the NY Times reports that “John Edwards accused his Democratic rivals of bringing ‘New York and Chicago politics to South Carolina’ on Friday, and told voters on the day before the primary here that he is the only candidate who will represent their interests in the White House… The Edwards campaign released a new television ad on Friday, with the title ‘Grown Up’, using footage from the Democratic debate on Monday when Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama fired back at each other and Mr. Edwards intervened, calling it ‘squabbling’.”

2. The Washington Post reports Guam braces for peaceful military incursion. “The Pentagon has chosen Guam, a quirkily American place that marries the beauty of Bali with the banality of Kmart, as the prime location in the western Pacific for projecting U.S. military muscle… [and] set to become a rapid-response platform for problems ranging from pirates to terrorists to tsunamis, as well as a highly visible reminder to China that the United States is nearby and watching. To that end, U.S. Marines by the thousands and U.S. tax dollars by the billions ($13 billion at last count) are to be dispatched to Guam over the next six years, along with a major-league military kit that includes Trident submarines, a ballistic missile task force, Navy Special Operations forces and Air Force F-22 fighter jets. Nuclear-powered attack submarines and B-2 stealth bombers have already arrived, and preparations are being made to accommodate aircraft carriers.”

3. The Guardian reports that bad news that
   Amazon deforestation increases sharply. Amazon rainforest deforestation has “risen sharply. Government satellite images show that at least 1,280 sq miles (3,235 sq kilometers) of rainforest were lost between August and December last year, mainly because of soy planting and cattle ranching. Environment ministry officials believe the true figure could be as high as 2,700 sq miles (7,000 sq kilometers)… The Brazilian Amazon has been decimated by a combination of loggers, farmers and ranchers over the last 40 years. Environmentalists say as much as 20% of the rainforest has already been destroyed, mostly since the 70s. A further 40% could be lost by 2050 if that trend is not reversed, they estimate.”

   “Generous US subsidies for biofuel crops are a big factor behind the sudden deforestation. Thousands of US farmers have switched from soya to maize to produce ethanol, which has increased the world soya price and encouraged Brazilian farmers to clear forests for soya farms… 40% of the Amazon could be lost by 2050 if the trends continue.”

4. According to Spiegel, there is A new look into the center of the earth. “For years, scientists have known that continents float around on the Earth’s surface like ice bergs on the ocean. But what happens deep beneath our feet? A new theory envisions graveyards for continents and a life cycle not unlike the weather.”

   Maruyama Shigenori, a Japanese geophysicist, “is stirring things up with a new fascinating theory on the lifecycle of the Earth’s crust… Maruyama is convinced that he understands what happens deep below our feet… According to Maruyama, the key ingredient for the chemistry of the Earth’s interior is the same one that determines the weather on the surface: water. The sunken ocean plates have old seawater locked in their mineral structure — only a few parts per thousand, but enough to drastically change the characteristics of the rock.”

Behold the afternoon news and open thread.

The news below the fold:

1. The Bush administrations 935 lies that led to war.

2. Spineless Democrats on FISA (and impeachment).

3. Irony from Afghanistan.

4. Burma’s war on poetry.

Well I really tried to keep the start of Great Depression II out of Four at Four, but…

1. George Soros writing in the Financial Times states this is The worst market crisis in 60 years.

   Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared.

   The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility…

   Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.

   The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

   Worse could be depression or war… nuclear war.

2. The New York Times – Worries That the Good Times Were Mostly a Mirage.

   The recent financial turmoil has many causes, but they are tied to a basic fear that some of the economic successes of the last generation may yet turn out to be a mirage. That helps explain why problems in the American subprime mortgage market could have spread so quickly through the world’s financial system. On Tuesday, Mr. Bernanke, who is now the Fed chairman, presided over the steepest one-day interest rate cut in the central bank’s history.

   The great moderation now seems to have depended – in part – on a huge speculative bubble, first in stocks and then real estate, that hid the economy’s rough edges. Everyone from first-time home buyers to Wall Street chief executives made bets they did not fully understand, and then spent money as if those bets couldn’t go bad. For the past 16 years, American consumers have increased their overall spending every single quarter, which is almost twice as long as any previous streak.

   So if the past 16 years were a mirage, then Clintonomics were a lie too… Right Hillary?

3. And what will our glorious, clueless leaders in Washington do? Well the Washington Post reports Bush and lawmakers are close to deal on stimulus package. “Officials said they were close to the framework of a roughly $145 billion plan. About two-thirds of the money would go for tax breaks for individuals, plus extended unemployment and food stamp benefits, while the other third would be for business tax breaks. Individuals would get rebates of as much as $800, and married couples as much as $1,600… After a year of antagonism over issues including the Iraq war and children’s health care, the collaboration between Bush and the two Democratic leaders was intended to signal to a nervous country that Washington can put aside partisan bickering to bolster the economy.”

   We need investment in America, not more damned tax cuts. In my opinion, this is close to the worst possible thing they could do.

Finally for a change of pace, an interesting story about an ancient skull is below the fold…

Some news other than the markets collapsing.

1. According to The Great Beyond, a blog at Nature, there could be a Climate change trade war brewing.

   Europe and the US could be headed for a trade war over climate change.

   In a speech yesterday José Barroso, president of the European Commission, said he would be ready to force companies outside the EU to buy carbon allowances to ensure that companies inside were not disadvantaged by Europe’s tougher emissions targets (speech).

   While this apparently went down well with the audience (of European businessmen) it hasn’t gone down so well with America.

   Reuters highlights that US Trade Representative Susan Schwab said that an earlier version of the EU plans seemed to be an excuse to close the European market and amounted to something like protectionism. More worryingly, the notes for speech delivered by Schwab last week contains the statement, “The unilateral imposition of restrictions can lead to retaliation, and dramatically impact economic growth and markets worldwide – while accomplishing nothing or worse when it comes to advancing environmental objectives.”

2. The Christian Science Monitor reports Wind, solar tax credits to expire. “After years of start-and-stop growth, wind-and solar- power industries soared in 2007, thanks to three consecutive years of tax credits that provided a critical lift for both sectors. But whether the fledgling industries can fly without tax credits, due to expire at the end of this year, is a question being debated on Capitol Hill this week.”

   Nearly one-third of all US power capacity added last year – about 5,244 megawatts – was in wind. Overall wind-generating capacity soared 45 percent last year, adding the clean-energy equivalent of 10 large coal-fired power plants, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) reported last week.

   Wind power injected $9 billion into the US economy and now employs 20,000 people directly, the industry says. Plans for at least eight new US wind-power manufacturing plants employing 5,000 workers were announced last year, AWEA officials say…

   Together, today’s tax breaks for wind and solar cost taxpayers a little more than $1 billion annually.

   I think this has been a good investment for America and should be continued.

Four at Four continues below the fold with a story about the Canadian border and the death of thousands of Inuit sled dogs.

1. The New York Times reports Dr. King honored by Democratic presidential candidates. “The three rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination stood together on the steps of the state capitol here on Monday in a brief display of political unity as they remembered the life and legacy of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. With a bitter chill in the air, the candidates addressed a crowd that overflowed onto a sprawling downtown plaza, vowing to complete the unfinished business of the slain civil rights leader… As the candidates spoke, a Confederate flag whipped into the stiff wind, a poignant reminder of South Carolina’s historic racial divide that still hangs over politics here.” The Democrats are in S.C. for tonight’s Congressional Black Caucus debate on CNN at 8 p.m. Eastern.

2. AFP reports scientists have found evidence of a Massive volcano that exploded under Antarctic icesheet. “A powerful volcano erupted under the icesheet of West Antarctica around 2,000 years ago and it might still be active today, a finding that prompts questions about ice loss from the white continent… The explosive event — rated “severe” to “cataclysmic” on an international scale of volcanic force — punched a massive breach in the icesheet and spat out a plume some 12,000 metres (eight miles) into the sky”. The British scientists calculated the blast happened around 207 B.C, give or take 240 years, which is roughly during the lifetime of Alexander the Great. While volcanic heat may be the cause of some Antarctic ice melt, the scientists state warming ocean water is the primary factor.

3. The Guardian reports on the Drive to save weird and endangered amphibians. “British scientists have launched an ambitious conservation project to protect some of the weirdest and slimiest creatures on the planet from extinction. The Zoological Society of London’s Edge project has identified 100 species of amphibians that have the fewest living relatives, making them evolutionary rarities and precious examples of Earth’s biodiversity… Climate change, habitat loss and outbreaks of disease have taken their toll on amphibians around the world. Half of all amphibian species are in decline, while a third are threatened with extinction.” 2008 is the Year of the Frog.

4. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Local architects offer visions of SF in 2108. If the winning proposal of IwamotoScott Architecture vision of San Francisco’s future should come to pass, the city will “be a place where forests of towers grow algae as well as house people, and where geothermal steam baths sprout atop Twin Peaks.” The firm “said a city that produces its own energy – such as the hydrogen that would be generated by vast vertical fields of algae – and moves most travel underground shouldn’t be all that far-fetched.”

   “We were thinking of the city as an evolutionary beast,” said [Lisa] Iwamoto, a design lecturer at UC Berkeley as well as the operator, with [Craig] Scott, her husband, of a four-person firm based in the couple’s Mission District loft. “You create certain conditions, and that allows other things to happen.”

Some news and open thread.

Postcard from Nevada — Barack, Hillary, and John at the grown-up’s debate.

Inside today’s Four at Four:

1. Bush overrules federal court
2. White House email tapes erased
3. CIA torture tapes destroyed
4. A rat the size of a hippopotamus

Go on click below the fold and comment… I dare you!

Meet Mike Huckabee. He’s a Republican Party front runner for president of the United States of America.

I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution, but I believe it’s a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God, and that’s what we need to do is to amend the Constitution so it’s in God’s standards rather than try to change God’s standards.

Hat tip MercuryX23.

So Huckabee wants to change the U.S. Constitution to add a “human life amendment” and an amendment to define marriage as between a human male and a human female. Why? Why should America’s secular law be based on Southern Baptists’ interpretation of their translation of the Bible? How is this any, any different than Islamists who wish to install sharia law?  

1. The Washington Post reports the Pentagon now says Iranian boats may not have made radio threat after all. “The Pentagon said yesterday that the apparent radio threat to bomb U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf last weekend may not have come from the five Iranian Revolutionary Guard speedboats that approached them — and may not even have been intended against U.S. targets… Pentagon officials insist that they never claimed Iran made the threat.” Um… yes the anonymous Pentagon officials did.

2. Anthony D. Romero of Salon notes Our shameful Guantanamo anniversary.

   Today, America’s Guantánamo era enters its seventh shameful year. If we are ever to regain our standing as a nation committed to the rule of law and fundamental human rights, we must close the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay now, reaffirm our commitment to international treaties and our own Constitution, and either release or prosecute fairly the men who have been held so long in a legal and moral black hole…

   But the appalling fact that innocent men have been imprisoned and abused at Guantánamo is not the only reason why its closure is of such urgent importance. The most profound and enduring stain of Guantánamo is its corrosive effect on America’s reputation and standing, and on respect for the rule of law worldwide…

   In truth, Guantánamo has demolished America’s moral standing because the government chose to abandon our time-tested criminal justice system. In its place, they’ve erected a new regime of military commissions that permits — according to recent congressional testimony by the Pentagon general who oversees it — evidence obtained through torture, including the brutal practice of waterboarding.

3. The Sydney Morning Herald reports on the Political dilemma over Guantanamo.

   Now, after years of revelations of CIA ‘ghost’ prisons, controversial interrogation methods and the mess of Iraq, George Bush is widely disrespected and his nation’s reputation is tarnished. Guantanamo has been a disaster for the US and the very word is now shorthand for Bush’s mistakes. Even the US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, acknowledges that the facility needs to be closed to help restore America’s moral authority…

   Of the roughly 275 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo, only 10 have been charged and only three cases are pending trial. The earliest predicted trial date is May, but that may be derailed by legal action in the US civil courts…

   Robert Gates and the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, have advised the President to close Guantanamo. Bush himself admits he wants to. The problem is what to do with the prisoners. If they are moved to American jails, they will have to be charged and tried under US law. Evidence gathered through coercive interrogations will not be admissible in regular courts and so Bush would risk watching the likes of Mohammed and Hambali walk free. An easier option is to leave the Guantanamo problem – along with Iraq – for the next occupant of the Oval Office to solve.

4. Andrew Stroehlein, Director of Media and Information for the International Crisis Group, writes US warns citizens to keep clear of Guantanamo protests. “I received a fairly disturbing message from the US Embassy in Brussels yesterday, a high-importance mass email warning all American citizens in Belgium not to go near a small Amnesty International demonstration that is happening this afternoon. It’s so unbelievable, I produce it here:”

   [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
   Sent: 10 January 2008 11:43
   To: [email protected]
   Subject: Warden Message
   Importance: High

   Warden Message
   20080110 Warden Message – Demonstrations – January 10, 2008

   Spontaneous demonstrations take place in Belgium from time to time in response to world events or local developments. We remind American citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possible escalate into violence. American citizens are therefore urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of any demonstrations. American citizens should stay current with media coverage of local events and be aware of their surroundings at all times. Upcoming demonstration information follows: …

   While scarcely being covered in the news, there have been worldwide protests against the United States and Guantanamo today.