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Secret Kurdish Report – US Wants to Topple al-Maliki

The New York Times, on 10 September, published this story about the Iraq Government canceling oil field development contracts with Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Total and BP.

While not particularly lucrative by industry standards, the contracts were valued for providing a foothold in Iraq at a time when oil companies are being shut out of energy-rich countries around the world.

“Not particularly lucrative” might well be interpreted to mean, they were not production sharing agreements in which the contractors, the oil companies, get ownership of a share of the oil. Rather than a share of the oil the agreements were technical service contracts in which the oil companies would be paid set fees for their services. This is the usual contractual format for services used in the other oil rich countries in the Persian Gulf Region.

The “Long War” Moves to Pakistan

The Long War, formerly known as The War on Terror, is moving on to Pakistan. The Bush Administration has been warned, apparently to little avail, as it appears Bush wants to ratchet up his war, perhaps for political reasons, as we move toward the presidential election.

Gareth Porter, writing in Asia Times Online, tells us that the Bush Administration has been warned by The National Intelligence Council (NIC), that the launching of commando raids by US troops into Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province region carries a high risk of further destabilizing the Pakistani military and government.

For those unfamiliar with the NIC, additional information is available on their website linked above:

The NIC is a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community.

Our work ranges from brief analyses of current issues to “over the horizon” estimates of broader trends at work in the world.

Centcom to Review Recent Bombing Incident in Afghanistan

On 8 September 2008 Human Rights Watch issued a 43 page report which shows that civilian deaths in Afghanistan from US and NATO air-strikes had nearly tripled from 2006 to 2007, and that recent deadly air-strikes are “exacerbating the problem and fueling a public backlash” and that they have dramatically decreased public support for the Afghan Government and for the presence of US and NATO troops.  

Back on 22 August of this year the United States military claimed that 30 to 35 “militants” (note that they don’t refer to them as “terrorists”) were killed in what was called a successful operation against the Taliban. They also admitted that 5 to 7 civilians, might have been killed. This was a Special Operations ground mission backed up by American air support.

Villagers in Azizabad, Shindand District in Herat Province in western Afghanistan claimed that more than 90 civilians were killed in the bombing raid, the majority being women and children.

The Long War

For those who have not noticed, the Global War on Terror has morphed into what is now being labeled as “The Long War”.

Soon after the neo-cons got their “Pearl Harbor”, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told Americans what to expect. “Forget about ‘exit strategies, we’re looking at a sustained engagement that carries no deadlines.”

Donald Rumsfeld is today a discredited and widely reviled figure. Robert Gates, Rumsfeld’s successor as Defense secretary, is generally admired for manifesting qualities that Rumsfeld lacked — a willingness to listen not least among them. Yet on one crucial point, the two see eye to eye: Both believe that the United States has no alternative but to wage a global war likely to last decades.

LA Times The ‘Long War’ Fallacy by Andrew J. Bacevich

Speaking at West Point in April of this year, Gates, echoed his predecessor’s assessment. “There are no exit strategies.” Gates described a “generational campaign” entailing “many years of persistent, engaged combat all around the world.”

The Long War

For those who have not noticed, the Global War on Terror has gradually morphed into what is now being labeled as “The Long War”.

Soon after the neo-cons got their “Pearl Harbor”, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told Americans what to expect. “Forget about ‘exit strategies, we’re looking at a sustained engagement that carries no deadlines.”

Donald Rumsfeld is today a discredited and widely reviled figure. Robert Gates, Rumsfeld’s successor as Defense secretary, is generally admired for manifesting qualities that Rumsfeld lacked — a willingness to listen not least among them. Yet on one crucial point, the two see eye to eye: Both believe that the United States has no alternative but to wage a global war likely to last decades.

LA Times The ‘Long War’ Fallacy by Andrew J. Bacevich

Speaking at West Point in April of this year, Gates, echoed his predecessor’s assessment. “There are no exit strategies.” Gates described a “generational campaign” entailing “many years of persistent, engaged combat all around the world.”

Afghanistan – A Different Type of Surge

The NGO network in Afghanistan (Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief – ACBAR) reports that the number of civilian casualties caused by all sides has “surged” and that insecurity has spread to previously stable areas.

The number of insurgent attacks for each of the months of May (463), June (569) and July is greater than the number of such attacks in any other months since the end of major hostilities following the international intervention in 2001…

July was reportedly the worst month for Afghan civilians in the past six years, with 260 civilian casualties recorded…

Now, due primarily to a stepped up air operations, Afghanistan, “the good war” is turning bad.

How Not to Fight Terrorism – The Rand Report

Rand Corporation has recently published a report which concludes that terrorist groups rarely cease to exist as a result of winning or losing a military campaign. To me it is mind-boggling that it took Rand, or anyone else, 8 years to come to this conclusion. Now the damage has been done. Hundreds of billions of dollars wasted, over a million lives lost, millions of people displaced, destruction of property and in the end we’ve only created more “terrorists” which in turn could be used as a pretext to continue the GWOT.

By analyzing a comprehensive roster of terrorist groups that existed worldwide between 1968 and 2006, the authors found that most groups ended because of operations carried out by local police or intelligence agencies or because they negotiated a settlement with their governments. Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended, and few groups within this time frame achieved victory.

These findings suggest that the U.S. approach to countering al Qa’ida has focused far too much on the use of military force. Instead, policing and intelligence should be the backbone of U.S. efforts.

Obama and the Shift to Afghanistan

Senator Obama, the presumed Democratic presidential candidate, has said that he wants to withdraw all US combat troops from Iraq within about 16 months. Now it appears that political differences are narrowing and that a possible consensus is building for just that.

The Wall Street Journal in an article on 23 July by By John D. McKinnon, Yochi J. Dreazen and Elizabeth Holmes noted that President Bush had announced a week earlier that he would agree to a “time horizon” for withdrawal. The Prime Minister of Iraq is also pleased.

In the days that followed, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki publicly endorsed a target date for withdrawal — the end of 2010, roughly in line with the mid-2010 time frame advocated by Sen. Barack Obama.

52 Dead in Afghanistan Wedding Procession – Bombed by US

Several days ago, on 6 July, an early morning wedding procession in eastern Afghanistan’s Nargarhar Region was crossing through a pass in a ridge separating two valleys when they were bombed by American planes. It was to have been a big double wedding between two families, with each family exchanging a bride and a groom. One family lived in the valley on one side of the mountain and the other family was from the valley on the opposite side.

What began as celebration ended with maybe 52 people dead, most of them women and children, and others badly injured.

BBC News

Iraqi Oil Contracts – It’s the Perception That Matters

Have you ever wondered why…

… it has been the practice of the major media to avoid mentioning oil in connection with military activity in Iraq; something also common in the Congress, all following the lead of the Bush administration.

UPI.com

Shouldn’t we all be shocked then? Shouldn’t we be shocked to learn, after the US – British led invasion of Iraq to save the world from the dangers of Saddam’s non-existant WMDs, struck Iraq with a shock and awe which was to have become the centerpiece for a GWOT, that as Reuters reported on Tuesday:

Iraq opened its giant oilfields to foreign firms on Monday, putting British and U.S. companies in pole position five years after U.S.-led troops invaded the country to oust Saddam Hussein.

The Truth About the Iranian Threat

There is another voice calling out the US establishment media on their less than truthful portrayal of a threat from Iran. While at it, Kaveh L Afrasiabi, writing for Asia Times Online cites UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon for having repeatedly condemned Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric against Israel, while remaining “ominously, and inexcusably, silent” about on Israeli threats of military attacks on Iran.

Unfortunately, compounding the UN’s shortcoming above-cited is a related failure of mainstream media in the US and Europe to criticize Ban’s flawed approach to the Iran crisis, or to address the systematic disinformation and planned paranoia about Iran’s nuclear program put forth by Israel and its allies.

Of particularly important significance in this affair is the fact that the head of the IAEA, (International Atomic Energy Agency) Mohammed ElBaradei, has stated that if a military attack is launched against Iran that he would resign immediately and that such an attack would inflict serious civilian casualties and “trigger the volatile region into a fireball.”

UXO – Still Killing After All These Years

A new cluster munitions treaty was adopted in Dublin, Ireland on May 30th. As per Human Rights Watch:

The treaty immediately bans all types of cluster munitions, rejecting initial attempts by some nations to negotiate exceptions for their own arsenals, as well as calls for a transition that would delay the ban for a decade or more.  

In addition to the prohibitions on use, production, stockpiling, and trade, the treaty also includes very strong provisions requiring states to provide assistance to victims and to clean up areas affected by cluster munitions.

Human Rights Watch urged governments supporting the treaty to make all necessary preparations to sign the treaty in Oslo in December 2008. The treaty will go into effect after 30 nations have signed and ratified it.  

The US and other countries which have used or stockpile cluster bombs were was absent from the negotiations. These include Russia, Israel, China, Brazil, India and Pakistan.

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