Crossposted from The Stars Hollow Gazette

By now of course you have heard the story of Obama for America’s New Mexico State Director Ray Sandoval sending an official email-

Please take 5 minutes to read this, Please.

I know many of you have raised frustrations, but please, I implore you, please take 5 minutes and read the article below. It does a great job of explaining the Debt Ceiling deal.

Mr. Sandoval then links to a blog post on an obscure blog called The People’s View by a blogger named Spandan Chakrabarti who’s chief claim to fame seems to be he has “been participating in online and offline liberal activism since 2003, when Gov. Howard Dean ran for president.”

In his post Mr. Chakrabarti calls Paul Krugman “a political rookie” and says, “The more than half-a-trillion in defense and security spending cut “trigger” for the Republicans will hardly earn a mention on the Firebagger Lefty blogosphere.”

I’m not exactly sure whom this is supposed to impress.

To say that Mr. Chakrabarti’s resume doesn’t compare to a Nobel Prize in Economics is a trifle harsh because after all, who’s does?  I’ll say instead his online impact doesn’t begin to compare to mine let alone Jane Hamsher’s outside of this “happy” accident of getting singled out for attention as a particularly groveling toady by a low level apparatchik.

That low level apparatchik, Mr. Sandoval, is even more puzzling.  I can sort of sympathize with a pallid, Cheeto stained wretch desperate for sunlight and some sort of human attention outside of his mom yelling at him down the basement stairs, but an oh so savvy political operative?

As Jane points out in her response–

(I)f this is a brilliant political strategy on the part of OFA, someone is going to have to explain it to me.  I know the goal is to attract the much-prized Independent for 2012.  But who do they think is keeping Obama’s poll numbers afloat?

As I’ve often pointed out (most recently here), Obama is hemorrhaging Independent and, more recently, solidly Democratic votes.  At 52% disapproval, Obama is below Harry Truman levels-

Ten incumbent presidents have sought re-election since World War II, and none has won a second term with final pre-election job approval ratings below 48%.

My final point is this- sticks and stones can break my bones, but whips and chains excite me.  If you think you can insult me by calling me a “Firebagger” or any other name you are sadly mistaken.  I just don’t care about your opinion of me that much.

I freely admit to every vice unless you have something novel you’d care to share.

Frank Luntz is a whore and we even know the price- $1000.

I’m only half kidding.  Stephen is using his PAC money to educate us.  We should pay attention.

Where did he get those words that are going to be the basis for his transformative campaign?  I suspect most of you already know the answer-

You can’t wipe your ass with an iPad.

Crossposted from The Stars Hollow Gazette

Oh my yes.  You remember Silverstone don’t you?

Things are not happy in the Formula One Teams Association, there’s also the fact the Concorde Agreement has expired and is extended only through a letter, not a contract, through 2012 following a heated dispute that led many teams to threaten to go CART.  While nominally guided by Martin Whitmarsh of McLaren and Ross Brawn of Mercedes the FOTA is widely viewed as a tool of Bernie Ecclestone who has a distinct conflict of interest and a hazy history of influence on the FIA itself with his cozy relationship to Max Mosley the fifth columnist Nazi’s son who got the boot for his sexcapades. Interestingly enough this was the scoop of the recently deceased and unlamented News of the World who published sick Nazi Sex Orgy by Neville Thurlbeck so who knows what to think?

Well, Neville’s in trouble again-

Rupertgate Friday – “For Neville”

By Gordonskene, Crooks&Liars

July 22, 2011 03:58 PM

As was reported yesterday, there are now growing questions over the honesty of the testimony given by James Murdoch during the Inquiry hearings on Tuesday. One centers around Neville Thurlbeck, who was a registered unpaid Police informant and has been a key suspect in the phone hacking scandal and an e-mail and attached file that carefully listed transcribed hacked messages. Murdoch denies any knowledge of the e-mail, however former NoTW editor Colin Myler and former head of legal affairs for News Of The World Tom Crone claim the younger Murdoch had full knowledge of the “For Neville” e-mail and file and has been lying to the Commission. If this winds up being true, and Murdoch is found to be lying, it tosses an enormous question mark over the entire testimony on Tuesday and puts James Murdoch in the position of being arrested and held for further questioning.

Well today…

Former NOTW Employees: James Murdoch Knew Another Reporter Was Involved In Phone Hacking

Jillian Rayfield, TPMMuckraker

August 16, 2011, 12:56PM

The e-mail, from 2005, contained transcripts of 35 hacked phone messages from Taylor’s phone, and identified them as “the transcript for Neville.” The Guardian identified “Neville” as News Of The World reporter Neville Thurlbeck.

According to (James) Murdoch’s testimony to Parliament, he gave the go-ahead for the settlement without knowing about the “for Neville” e-mail, and believed the phone hacking to be limited to “rogue reporter” Clive Goodman and private investigator Glenn Mulcaire, who had both already been convicted.

But Crone and Myler allege that in a June 2008 meeting, they told Murdoch of the e-mail. Crone, who wrote the letter to Parliament, said that he does not have any notes from his meeting with Murdoch at the time, but the “sole reason” for the meeting was to explain the reason for settling — which was the e-mail. “My invariable practice when seeking authority for settlements would be to take a file of the relevant documents with me to such meetings so that, if asked or if necessary, I could illustrate whatever I was saying by reference to something in writing,” Crone wrote.

Letter Suggests Hacking ‘Widely Discussed’ at News of the World

By PAUL SONNE, JEANNE WHALEN and BRUCE ORWALL, The Wall Street Journal

AUGUST 16, 2011, 12:41 P.M. ET

LONDON-News Corp. came under fresh attack Tuesday as new, written evidence submitted to a U.K. parliament committee suggested that voice-mail interception was “widely discussed” at its News of the World tabloid and showed several former executives bluntly contradicting recent testimony by Deputy Chief Operating Officer James Murdoch.

…

Mr. Murdoch said Messrs. Crone and Myler briefed him on the case during a meeting on June 10, 2008. He said he doesn’t recall receiving any briefing before this date, and doesn’t recall either Mr. Crone or Mr. Myler showing him any documents during the meeting. He said the executives recommended settling the case because “there was evidence” that Glenn Mulcaire, a private investigator, “had carried out this interception on behalf of the News of the World.”

“Let me reiterate that I have no recollection of any mention of ‘Thurlbeck’ or a ‘for Neville’ email. Neither Mr. Myler nor Mr. Crone told me that wrongdoing extended beyond Mr. Goodman or Mr. Mulcaire,” a private investigator on the tabloid’s payroll, Mr. Murdoch said.

…

The new evidence comes as the latest twist in a scandal over allegations that the News of the World tabloid paid bribes to police and intercepted the voice mails of celebrities, politicians and crime victims. News Corp. also owns The Wall Street Journal.

Crossposted from The Stars Hollow Gazette

I’ve had people opine that I’m overly pessimistic, that a walking talking jackass can’t possibly win.

Well on Wednesday I quoted Robert Reich–

I’m told White House political operatives are against a bold jobs plan. They believe the only jobs plan that could get through Congress would be so watered down as to have almost no impact by Election Day. They also worry the public wouldn’t understand how more government spending in the near term can be consistent with long-term deficit reduction. And they fear Republicans would use any such initiative to further bash Obama as a big spender.

So rather than fight for a bold jobs plan, the White House has apparently decided it’s politically wiser to continue fighting about the deficit. The idea is to keep the public focused on the deficit drama – to convince them their current economic woes have something to do with it, decry Washington’s paralysis over fixing it, and then claim victory over whatever outcome emerges from the process recently negotiated to fix it. They hope all this will distract the public’s attention from the President’s failure to do anything about continuing high unemployment and economic anemia.

Saturday’s New York Times–

Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, David Plouffe, and his chief of staff, William M. Daley, want him to maintain a pragmatic strategy of appealing to independent voters by advocating ideas that can pass Congress, even if they may not have much economic impact. These include free trade agreements and improved patent protections for inventors.

…

Administration officials, frustrated by the intransigence of House Republicans, have increasingly concluded that the best thing Mr. Obama can do for the economy may be winning a second term, with a mandate to advance his ideas on deficit reduction, entitlement changes, housing policy and other issues.

Yup, those same neoliberal ideas that lose jobs and weaken the economy and increase the deficit.

Barack Obama and his advisers are totally out of touch with economic reality-

The ailing economy, barely growing at the same pace as the population, has swept all other political issues to the sidelines. Twenty-five million Americans could not find full-time jobs last month. Millions of families cannot afford to live in their homes. And the contentious debate over raising the federal debt ceiling – which Mr. Obama achieved only after striking a compromise with Republicans that included a plan for at least $2.1 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years – has further shaken economic confidence.

A wide range of economists say the administration should call for a new round of stimulus spending, as prescribed by mainstream economic theory, to create jobs and promote growth.

And they are out of touch with the voters-

So far, most signs point to a continuation of the nonconfrontational approach – better to do something than nothing – that has defined this administration. Mr. Obama and his aides are skeptical that voters will reward bold proposals if those ideas do not pass Congress. It is their judgment that moderate voters want tangible results rather than speeches.

…

Mr. Plouffe and Mr. Daley share the view that a focus on deficit reduction is an economic and political imperative, according to people who have spoken with them. Voters believe that paying down the debt will help the economy, and the White House agrees, although it wants to avoid cutting too much spending while the economy remains weak.

As part of this appeal to centrist voters, the president intends to continue his push for a so-called grand bargain on deficit reduction – a deal with Republicans to make even larger spending cuts, including to the social safety net, in exchange for some revenue increases – despite the strong opposition of Congressional Democrats who want to use the issue to draw contrasts with Republicans.

How’s that plan working out for you Barack?  As I pointed out Friday the latest ABC News / Washington Post poll shows increasing disapproval of Barack Obama and his policies, not just among so-called Independent voters, but also a marked erosion of his Democatic support-

More than four in 10 Americans say they “definitely will not” support Obama in 2012, while fewer than half as many, just two in 10, are certain to back the president for reelection. The number of “definite” Obama voters marks a low in polls since November 2009 and has dropped four percentage points since a Post-ABC poll in June, and eight points since April.

…

Support for Obama has softened considerably on the left: In the new poll, 31 percent of liberals say they are certain to vote for Obama next year, down from 46 percent in June. One in five liberals says they “definitely will not” vote for him, while a 43 percent plurality says they’ll considering casting a ballot for Obama.

Obama’s 2008 election was fueled by winning majorities of key swing groups, including political independents, women and voters under age 50. But with 15 months left before Election Day, more than three times as many independents say they “definitely will not” vote for Obama in 2012 as say they “definitely will” – 45 percent versus 14 percent. And among women and those under 50, more say they’ll definitely oppose than definitely support Obama next year.

How’s that working out in the Electoral College for you Barack?  In the swing state of Pennsylvania–

Public Policy Polling as cited by John Aravosis and Taylor Marsh–

For the first time since last July Barack Obama does not lead Mitt Romney in PPP’s monthly national poll on the 2012 Presidential race. Romney has now pulled into a tie with the President at 45%. Obama’s approval rating this month is 46% with 48% of voters disapproving of him. There are 2 things particularly troubling in his numbers: independents split against him by a 44/49 margin, and 16% of Democrats are unhappy with the job he’s doing while only 10% of Republicans give him good marks. Republicans dislike him at this point to a greater extent than Democrats like him and that will be a problem for him moving forward if it persists. … Obama’s numbers are worse than they appear to be on the surface. The vast majority of the undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama’s doing but aren’t committing to a candidate yet while they wait to see how the Republican field shakes out.

How undecideds change the race if you allocate them based on their approval/disapproval of Obama-

Matchup	Approve	Disapprove	Winner/Margin
Obama/Romney	21%	61%	Romney 52-48
Obama/Pawlenty	9%	75%	Tied 50-50
Obama/Bachmann	10%	67%	Obama 51-49
Obama/Cain	8%	76%	Obama 51-49
Obama/Palin	5%	84%	Obama 54-46

Confirmed by the latest (August 2nd) result from Quinnipiac–

Pennsylvania voters say 52 – 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected. Matching the president against possible Republican challengers shows:

• Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 44 percent to Obama’s 42 percent;
• Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 43 percent to Obama’s 45 percent;
• Obama leads Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann 47 – 39 percent;
• Obama tops Texas Gov. Rick Perry 45 – 39 percent.

Do you think campaigning on a program of cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid is going to work any better in Florida when Obama is also losing Latino voters because of his harsh immigration policy?

But wait, ek you say, surely in a State as true Blue as New York, where the Republican Party hardly exists, surely Barack Obama can win there!

From Quinnipiac, also August 2nd-

New York State voters disapprove 49 – 45 percent of the job President Obama is doing, a huge drop from his 57 – 38 percent approval June 29 and the first time the president ever has had a negative score in New York, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Democrats approve 75 – 19 percent, down from 82 – 12 percent in June. Disapproval is 86 – 10 percent among Republicans, compared to a 74 – 23 percent disapproval in June, and 58 – 36 percent among independent voters, compared to a slightly positive 49 – 45 percent in June, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.

…

“The debt ceiling hullaballoo devastated President Barack Obama’s numbers even in true blue New York,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “He just misses that magic 50 percent mark against a no-name Republican challenger.”

Don’t bet on it.  And don’t call me Shirley.

As I pointed out on Tuesday Obama and his advisers have decided that their only hope is a slime campaign to try and drive up his opponent’s negatives faster than the economy tanks.

So that is hope, and you can’t expect things to change either.  Again-

Administration officials, frustrated by the intransigence of House Republicans, have increasingly concluded that the best thing Mr. Obama can do for the economy may be winning a second term, with a mandate to advance his ideas on deficit reduction, entitlement changes, housing policy and other issues.

Who’s the walking talking jackass?  Why vote Obama unless you think things are improving, which an overwhelming and increasing majority of Voters don’t?

The best thing Obama can do for the economy and the Democratic Party is fire his advisers and resign.  The second best thing Obama can do for the economy and the Democratic Party is fire his advisers and not seek a second term.

Electoral victory my ass.

August 30, 2003

Now with Part 2!

Roubini: "capitalism could self destruct"

by Chris in Paris, Americablog

on 8/13/2011 06:10:00 PM

If you have a spare 22 minutes it’s well worth it. Roubini believes that the chances for a double dip are above 50%.

August 30, 2003