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“Five Minutes to Midnight” in Athens

  Events are rapidly coming to a head in Greece, and the consequences could ripple through all of Europe.

 Leading Greek economists and bankers yesterday warned George Papandreou, prime minister, that he had to announce bold initiatives to rescue the country’s collapsing bond market and avert the possibility of defaulting on a rising public debt.



 Yannis Stournaras, an Athens University economics professor and former chief adviser at the finance ministry, said: “Other countries in trouble have already taken measures. If we don’t quickly follow suit the adjustment will be imposed by markets and it will be violent.”

 How violent? Maybe not as violent as the protests in the streets of Athens. Already there are student, pensioner, and public worker protests and strikes. Remember that the current government is only two-months old, after the old government nearly collapsed under the pressure from street riots.

  This puts the current government in an extremely difficult situation. The public debt is set to rise next year to 124 per cent of GDP, with a fiscal deficit of over 12%. Meanwhile, the public pension fund is expected to go into the red as early as 2011. The fiscal squeeze requires draconian cuts, but the public workers of Greece are not a wealthy group. They will have no choice but to turn out into the streets en mass.

  Premier George Papandreou recognizes that.

 “Salaried workers will not pay for this situation: we will not proceed with wage freezes or cuts. We did not come to power to tear down the social state,” he said.

Banking system hooked on drug money

  The mayor of Kabul was back at his desk the day after was sentenced to four years for corruption. Afghanistan is awash in only one kind of money these days – drug money.

  One of the poorest nations on Earth exports $10 million every day in drug money, most of it right out of Kabul airport, and the world’s bankers are hooked on it like junkies. In fact, this drug money probably did more to save the world’s banking system than all the government bailouts.

 Drugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations’ drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.

  Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were “the only liquid investment capital” available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.

House flipping making a comeback

It’s hard to believe it, but the housing bubble has not finished bursting.

 Four years after the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, flipping homes is back in fashion.



 The minimum bid, as set by a unit of Citigroup Inc., which had a $1.3 million mortgage on the home, was $379,900. After several minutes of bidding among investors and their representatives, some wearing shorts and flip-flops, Mr. Mirmelli won the home for $486,300. A week later, he agreed to sell it for $690,000 to a woman who moved in this month.

After all these years, and all that heartbreak, people are still trying to get back to 2006.

     Just witness the failure of the HAMP program and Fannie Mae’s desperation. Everyone is trying to return to a past that was unsustainable.

Bonddad versus Bonddad

  Last week Bonddad posted a diatribe against the entire economic blogosphere.

 Reading blogs that in any way write about economics has generally become an exercise in utter futility. According to most good news is either propagated by corporate whores who are blind to the realities around them or presented without considering “all” the facts. All government statistics and all economists are wrong — unless they support or present a bearish viewpoint.

 Normally I wouldn’t notice, but someone pointed it out to me and it got me thinking. How did we arrive at this point, where the bullish and bearish are drawn up against one another in much the same way that Democrats and Republicans in Congress are?

  It occurred to me that perspective has everything to do with it.

Homeowners getting hit a second time

 You’re in debt up to your eyeballs. You can’t keep up with the mortgage and you are going to lose your home. It doesn’t get any worse than that, right? Wrong.

 Lawyers for troubled Staten Island homeowners say they are beginning to see examples of clients who go to the bank to take out money and find that their accounts have been frozen or wiped out by other banks or debt collectors — the entities holding second mortgages on houses already in default on the first and primary mortgage. Some are learning the lender or debt collector has already gone to court and secured a judgment to garnish paychecks.

   It’s a move more in line with the traditional debt collection industry, which typically targets credit card debt, and it’s dragging the house and what little cash reserves people often have into the foreclosure battleground. Experts say it’s an end-run by second lien holders around the traditional foreclosure process, which involves only the first mortgage holder and provides important legal protections for the homeowner.

 

Presto! Unemployed people vanish before your very eyes

  The big economic news today is the unemployment rate dropped slightly.

 The rate unexpectedly fell to 10 percent, from 10.2 percent in October, as employers cut the fewest number of jobs since the recession began. The government also said 159,000 fewer jobs were lost in September and October than first reported.

  If part-time workers who want full time jobs and laid-off workers who have given up looking for jobs are included, the so-called underemployment rate also fell, to 17.2 percent from 17.5 percent in October.

 Understand that I’m suspicious of any government numbers, especially positive economic numbers, because politicians have a long tradition of lying with them. So when these numbers came out so much better than everyone expected, I decided to look at the raw numbers.

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No HOPE for HAMP

  The Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program has been touted as a savor of distressed homeowners across America. The problem is that the numbers show an entirely different story.

 More than 650,994 loan revisions had been started through the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program as of last month, from about 487,081 as of September, according to the Treasury. None of the trial modifications through October had been converted to permanent repayment plans, the Treasury data showed.

None? NONE! Not a single one! WTF!

 Five months and 651,000 trial modifications and not one single borrower can get a permanent break? We throw hundreds of billions of dollars at these TARP banks and they can’t cut a single distressed homeowner some slack?

 These “trial” modifications only last 90 days, so its not like there hasn’t been thousands of mortgage holders who have tried to turn it around, and the banks then rejected.

Could Dubai be just the first?

  By now most people are aware of how Dubai got itself in over its head. What exactly is the perfect metaphor for Dubai’s excesses? The palm-tree shaped islands? The underwater hotel? The indoor ski resort? It all had the feel of Disneyland meeting the dot-com mania.

  In the end it was all about borrowed money. Lots of it. In that context Dubai is not alone.

 Dubai’s default has the world’s investors asking the question: Who’s next?

Happy UnThanksgiving

  40 years ago the first UnThanksgiving Day happened.

Oh, it wasn’t called that then. Nor was it called that the following year. You see, it wasn’t about Thanksgiving at all. It was about the Fort Laramie Treaty of 1868, and federal policy for native Americans.

Those unemployment numbers

  The weekly unemployment claims were very positive today.

 (Bloomberg) — The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since September 2008 as the economic recovery encourages companies to fire fewer workers.

  Initial jobless claims declined to 466,000 in the week ended Nov. 21 from 501,000 a week earlier, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments also declined.

Great news all around, right? Wrong.

 The non-seasonally adjusted numbers tell a far different story.

IMF: The cost of a second bailout may be democracy

  Wall Street CEO’s are deaf to Main Street while awarding themselves record bonuses from taxpayer bailout money.

  Democrats in Congress, in the White House, and regulators in the Federal Reserve who propose a permanent TARP bailout program are also deaf to Main Street.

Golden Myths

  I don’t believe there is any investment, outside of a mania, that elicits more emotion, both positive and negative, than gold. People love it or hate it, there isn’t much in between. It’s because of these strong emotions that there is so many misconceptions about the yellow metal. Emotions tend to cloud normally reasonable minds to the point that they miss either opportunities or dangers.

 Which brings us the current bull market in gold. What does gold hitting all-time record highs mean? To answer that you must brush away the myths and misunderstandings of what gold is and why someone would purchase it.

 I am going to attempt to do that.

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