Author's posts
Jan 04 2008
2008 Temperature Prediction
Cross-posted from THE ENVIRONMENTALIST
The University of East Anglia (UK), working with the British Met Office, has made its annual temperature prediction for 2008:
2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and University of East Anglia climate scientists, but is still forecast to be one of the top-ten warmest years.
Each January, the climate scientists at the university work with the British Met Office to forecast the expected temperature, taking into account conditions such as El Niño and La Niña, greenhouse gases, industrial aerosols, particulates, ocean trends and solar impact.
The assessment for 2008 is that there will be a “strong La Niña” event in the Pacific, which will limit the warming trend for the year (whilst still being one of the warmest years):
During La Niña, cold waters upwell to cool large areas of the ocean and land surface temperatures. The forecast includes for the first time a new decadal forecast using a climate model. This indicates that the current La Niña event will weaken only slowly through 2008, disappearing by the end of the year.
More below the jump…
Jan 01 2008
NYT gets it right: Looking at America
The New York Times published an editorial today entitled Looking at America that says very clearly what is at stake with the next election and how far we have to go to get back to the America we once knew:
There are too many moments these days when we cannot recognize our country. Sunday was one of them, as we read the account in The Times of how men in some of the most trusted posts in the nation plotted to cover up the torture of prisoners by Central Intelligence Agency interrogators by destroying videotapes of their sickening behavior. It was impossible to see the founding principles of the greatest democracy in the contempt these men and their bosses showed for the Constitution, the rule of law and human decency.
–snip
The country and much of the world was rightly and profoundly frightened by the single-minded hatred and ingenuity displayed by this new enemy. But there is no excuse for how President Bush and his advisers panicked – how they forgot that it is their responsibility to protect American lives and American ideals, that there really is no safety for Americans or their country when those ideals are sacrificed.
The editorial is the question many people in Europe are asking as they consider whether the “American Century” is over because of the mistakes of George W. Bush and company. Whether they will have to look to the EU as the new world leader or whether Putin has positioned Russia to take that role, as concerning as that idea may be.
Whether those in America realise the precarious nature of their world position and their own position at home is yet to be seen and will require much reflection by the American people themselves. But, as the NYT editorial says so well and considering all that’s at stake, it may have become a prerequisite to good citizenship.
More below the jump…
Dec 27 2007
Benazir Bhutto Assassinated in Pakistan (Update – Eye Witness Rpt – Video Link)
This just in from NBC news. Benazir Bhutto has been killed in a suicide bombing in Pakistan:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22…
VIDEO LINK: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21…
Here’s the BBC Report
[UPDATE] Eye witness report from the assassination:
Sardar Qamar Hayyat, a leader from Bhutto’s party, said at the time of the attack he was standing about 10 yards away from her vehicle _ a white, bulletproof SUV with a sunroof.
“She was inside the vehicle and was coming out from the gate after addressing the rally when some of the youths started chanting slogans in her favor. Then I saw a smiling Bhutto emerging from the vehicle’s roof and responding to their slogans,” he said.
“Then I saw a thin, young man jumping toward her vehicle from the back and opening fire. Moments later, I saw her speeding vehicle going away,” he added.
Mangled bodies lay in a pool of blood and pieces of clothing and shoes were scattered on the road. The clothing of some victims was shredded and people covered their bodies with party flags. There was an acrid smell of explosive fumes in the air [following the bomb detonation].
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan – Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto died shortly after being seriously wounded in an attack after a rally in the city of Rawalpindi, news agencies reported on Wednesday.
This is both horrible and dangerous.
More news will follow on the above link. This is breaking now. If you have access to MSNBC, they have brought on Madeline Albright to comment.
She referred to this as a “coup against the rule of law.”
Bhutto’s husband has reported that his wife was shot in the neck during the suicide bombing.
To say that this is a potential disaster for so many is an understatement. This will put the West in the position to have to strengthen their ties with Mussharaf and cause further destabilisation in what is a nuclear power under pressure from both Al Quaeda and the Taliban.
Madeline Albright: “This has made things even worse in the most tragic way.”
The gunman shot at her as she stood in her vehicle, exposing herself through the sunroof and then detonated his bomb. It was thought that a bullet severed her spine at her neck and came out through her cheek, but after surgery, reports are emerging that is was the force of the blast that caused her death.
This was a true assassination. The rally was supposed to be secured by the government security forces with metal detectors and body searches. That the bomber blew himself up after shooting at her raises the question: Was it to inflict chaos, maximum damage, kill her supporters or to hide his own identity (or all of the above)?
[UPDATE] VIDEO LINK
The question becomes how both the bomber gained access and who he was that it was important he blow himself up beyond recognition.
Another point of interest: She met with Karzai of Afghanistan just before the rally.
[UPDATE] The BBC has just filed their report with Mussharaf’s response.
The funeral will be very telling in terms of where the Pakistani people stand and how much further they and the stability of the region are at risk.
[UPDATE] al Qaeda has claimed responsibility and the Pakistani authorities said they intercepted a phone call from an al Qaeda suspect congratulating someone for the assassination.
Dec 26 2007
Three Years Ago Today
Cross-posted from THE ENVIRONMENTALIST
Three years ago today, in what scientists refer to as the Great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the resultant tsunami caused more than 225,000 deaths in eleven countries along the shores of the Indian Ocean.
The 2004 tsunami has since been estimated as the ninth worst natural disaster in modern history, which deserves (at least) 225,000 moments of silence and reflection.
For the people of Java, Indonesia, however, which has again been hit by rising waters, the monsoon rains that have impacted their region on the tsunami’s third anniversary don’t leave time for reflection as they run from landslides that are forcing thousands from their homes:
At least 80 people have been killed or are reported missing after floods triggered landslides in the central Java region of Indonesia. Local officials say they fear the death toll could rise. Thousands have been forced to seek shelter after their homes were buried or washed away. Landslides and floods are regular in Indonesia and many blame deforestation.
More below the jump…
Dec 24 2007
A Weary Year (with resolutions)
I was with a friend the other night, another writer on The Environmentalist with whom I’ve been visiting over the holidays. We were reflecting on 2007, which has been a far more difficult year for her than for me, and how long it’s taken the rest of the world to get how much trouble we’re in.
This came up during a viewing of François Truffaut and Nicolas Roag’s 1966 production of Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 451 with Oskar Werner and Julie Christie. If you haven’t seen it or read it, I recommend it; the story of a “fireman” living in a totalitarian society, whose job is to set books afire, not to question what might be inside them — which he eventually does. (Note: There’s a remake planned, but no guarantees it will retain the calm horror of the original).
There is the moment when Montag, the main character, settles down with his evening “newspaper” which is entirely in graphic novel format. They got their news that way and through large “wall sets”, where they were fed only what the state wants them to know, in between pills for either stimulation or sleep. Equally telling was the comment by a character about her husband being away. Montag challenges her. She doesn’t know that her husband has been called to some war that they know nothing about and asks him what it matters anyway, as it is always someone else’s husband that gets killed.
More below the jump…
Dec 20 2007
E.P.A. Denies California’s Emissions Waiver
Cross-posted from THE ENVIRONMENTALIST
(I’m having trouble figuring out if this latest Bush Administration move is cynical or arrogant or both…)
Just after the Bush Administration signed an auto fuel efficiency bill, they denied a request for a waiver by California to tighten their own emission standards.
The Bush administration said Wednesday night that it would deny California’s bid to set stricter vehicle emissions standards than federal law required as part of the state’s efforts to fight climate change.
The E.P.A’s decision was a victory for the American auto companies, and came just hours after President Bush signed legislation that will raise fuel economy standards by 40 percent to 35 miles a gallon in 2020.
More below the jump…
Dec 15 2007
Bali: “Lead, follow or get out of the way”
(Short) crosspost from THE ENVIRONMENTALIST
Following a speech by the representative of Papua New Guinea, where he called upon the United States to: “lead, follow or get out of the way:”
The United States made a dramatic reversal Saturday, first rejecting and then accepting a compromise to set the stage for intense negotiations in the next two years aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. The final result was a global warming pact that provides for negotiating rounds to conclude in 2009.
Here’s a link to the whole post.
Dec 14 2007
Bali Talks at Risk: Compromise Negotiations Underway (Update)
Crossposted from THE ENVIRONMENTALIST
A report from Bali by the editor of THE ENVIRONMENTALIST:
The same day that the University of East Anglia reports that 2007, despite the cooling effects of La Nina, has been the seventh warmest year on record, word came from the U.N. Climate Conference in Bali that the talks were in danger of breaking down:
European leaders and environmental campaigners reacted angrily yesterday after the United States rejected guidelines for reducing greenhouse gas emissions intended to check global warming. The proposal, supported by the members of the European Union as well as Brazil, would have set out in writing an ambition to cut greenhouse gases produced by industrialised countries by up to two fifths in the next 13 years.
-snip-
The row has undermined the hopes of environmentalists for a strong and detailed statement of agreement among the 190 governments attending the United Nations climate change conference on the Indonesian island of Bali. Link.
This has lead to a proposal for a compromise deal. If they cannot come to agreement, participants have threatened to to bypass next month’s Bush Administration’s climate meetings set for Hawaii.
Al Gore, speaking before the gathered representatives, acknowledged this.
More below the jump…
Nov 17 2007
U.N. Climate Panel Warns of ‘Abrupt’ Warming
Cross-posted from THE ENVIRONMENTALIST
Note: This report, a portion which is copied (text only) below, has important embedded links here.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will issue a report this weekend that warns of “abrupt and irreversible” impacts unless world leaders address climate change this year.
In its strongest statement to date, the panel warns of a potential temperature rise up to 6.4C, sea level rise up to 43cm, Arctic summer ice to disappear within the second half of this century, and an increase to the increase we’re already seeing in heat waves and tropical storm intensity.
More below the fold…
Nov 08 2007
Can’t make this stuff up: Chinese toys tainted w/date-rape drug (updated)
Canadian Press is reporting that the popular toy known as “Aqua Dots” in the U.S. and “Bindeez” in Australia has been pulled off the shelves because of a coating chemical, when ingested, metabolises into the “date-rape” drug: GHB (gamma hydroxy butyrate).
A popular Chinese-made children’s toy is being pulled from Canadian store shelves over worries that a similar toy sold in Australia contains a chemical that converts into a powerful “date rape” drug when swallowed.
[Update] The U.S. is recalling Aqua Dots, as well, after reports of 2 children in comas after ingesting the beads:
Two U.S. children went into comas after who swallowing Chinese-made Aqua Dots found to contain a chemical that converts into ‘date rape’ drug when ingested.
More below the jump.
Nov 03 2007
Mexico under water: “Katrina on a larger scale”
Eighty percent of the Mexican state of Tabasco is under water, as is a significant portion of Chiapas, and there’s more rain on the way.
President Calderon has compared the disaster to Katrina — but on a larger scale. With over one million displaced, his oil industry crippled, his entire air force sent to the region and disease soon to follow, his claim may be valid, even though, by all evidence, his response to the crisis has been the opposite of Washington’s Katrina debacle.
Here’s The Environmentalist’s post on the floods, which includes a video sent from the region and information provided by colleagues working to track the storms’ paths.
More below the jump…