The Economist

The Economist is an incredibly conservative and conventional magazine about, Surprise!, Economics. If you are not familiar with it perhaps the best analogy is a glossy Wall Street Journal without Murdochs.

And it’s very British.

They are not sanguine.

A decline in GDP of 10% usually has professional Economists debating whether it is a Recession or a Depression.

Dismal Earnings, Bullish Stock Investors and the Fed’s Invisible Hand
By Matt Phillips, The New York Times
May 27, 2020

Wall Street analysts have grown increasingly pessimistic in recent weeks about the outlook for corporate profits, even as investors have pushed markets steadily higher, breaking the link between analyst forecasts and the direction of stock prices.

Most companies in the S&P 500 stock index have reported their first-quarter earnings, and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on profits is becoming clear, at least for January through March. On a per-share basis, profits of S&P 500 companies fell by 13 percent, making it the worst slump since 2009.

Analysts think things will get worse before they get better. At the end of March, the consensus among analysts was that profits at companies that make up the index would sink a modest 1.8 percent in 2020. But after digesting the financial reports of companies from Agilent Technologies to Zions Bancorp, they now think 2020 profits will tumble more than 20 percent.

Any finance textbook’s section on equity prices holds that the direction of the stock market is determined, to a large extent, by the profits and dividends that shareholders expect companies to produce in the future. And academic research has repeatedly shown that when Wall Street analysts revise their forecasts for a company’s profits, it can move share prices.

Traders and investors routinely take note of when analysts erase earlier expectations, using those revisions as a real-time gauge of how the fundamental business prospects of corporate America are looking.

Going by the conventional wisdom, the current collapse in profit expectations — and analysts’ woeful prognoses for future earnings — should be clobbering share prices. But investors don’t appear to be taking their cues from analysts. The S&P 500 has soared more than 30 percent over the last two months.

To be sure, investors priced in some downturn in profits when stocks suffered a 34 percent collapse in February and March. They were right, and the pain, reflected in earnings reports, was widespread.

Firms that rely on discretionary consumer spending were, unsurprisingly, hammered. The casino operator Las Vegas Sands posted a first-quarter loss of $51 million, compared with a profit of $744 million during the same period last year. Profits fell 92 percent for the hotel company Marriott International. The cruise line Carnival lost $781 million during the first quarter. Even Amazon.com, ideally positioned for a world reliant on home deliveries, saw profits fall 29 percent as the costs of keeping open during the crisis increased.

Over the last few weeks, disappointing earnings announcements sent share prices down 1 percent on average. (That’s far less than the nearly 3 percent drop stocks suffered on average after falling short of expectations in recent years, according to research from the data provider FactSet.)

Close observers of stocks won’t be surprised. After all, market sentiment has grown increasingly detached from the abysmal outlook for economic growth, another supposedly fundamental building block of market prices. Instead, stocks have climbed even as the consensus expectation among Wall Street economists forecasts a 30 percent annualized rate of decline for gross domestic product this quarter, according to FactSet.

Plenty of explanations have been offered to help explain the market’s blasé approach to a bleak reality facing corporate America. Some say the bad economic news was already priced in during the March collapse. Others argue that markets are simply “discounting” — that is basically betting — that the U.S. will enjoy a V-shaped, or robust, economic recovery. Another argument is that investors, who tend to be forward-looking, are simply setting their sights on a future where the pandemic is a distant memory.

The most powerful reason is simpler: It’s the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Since March 23 — the day the stock market rally began — the Fed has done its best to ensure that the returns on bonds are quite low by signaling its willingness to buy unlimited quantities of Treasury and government-backed mortgage bonds. It has also ventured into buying corporate bonds, which helped push yields on such bonds lower too. The goal, in part, is to push investors away from the safety of the bond markets and into riskier assets, like stocks.

In a recent note, analysts at JPMorgan argued that these programs by the Fed “likely has a bigger positive impact on equity valuation, compared with the negative impact of the temporary earnings loss.”

Translation: The Fed’s efforts to keep interest rates and bond yields low has more than offset the collapse in profits for S&P 500 companies, helping to keep the market aloft even though corporate profitability and the economy look like they will be gloomy for a while.

A similar thing happened during the last financial crisis. Interest rates and bond yields fell to low levels that would have been unthinkable previously, which many partly attributed to central bank actions. And for the years that followed prices of assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate all rallied to levels that looked high relative to the sluggish level of economic activity after the crisis.

So while corporate profits are supposed to be the fuel that revs the stock market’s engine, in the short term, Federal Reserve policy remains in the driver’s seat. That explains why investors are willing to ignore what analysts have to say, at least for the moment.

The Breakfast Club (Since Day One)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

This Day in History

Novelist Ian Fleming is born. Baseball’s National League approves moving the Brooklyn Dodgers to Los Angeles. Duke fo Windsor dies.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

The most important fact is that gays have been here since day one. To say otherwise is a gross denial and stupidity. We played an enormous part in the history of America.

Larry Kramer June 25, 1935 – May 27, 2020

Continue reading

100,000

The United States has surpassed the painful milestone of 100,000 deaths due to the coronavirus pandemic.

On Dec. 31, 2019, Iraqi protesters stormed the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, wildfires raged across Australia, the fugitive auto executive Carlos Ghosn took refuge in Lebanon, and President Donald Trump, facing the start of his impeachment trial, held court at an annual New Year’s Eve party at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

The same day, in a development that barely seemed to register in the United States, Chinese officials in Wuhan confirmed dozens of cases of what appeared to be pneumonia, origins unknown. But the cause soon became clear: an outbreak of a new coronavirus and the ruthless disease it causes, COVID-19.

The first recorded fatality from the coronavirus in the United States, that of a man in his 50s in Washington state whose death was confirmed on Feb. 29, intensified concerns about the outbreak. Inside the offices of NBC News, the coronavirus had all but announced itself as the defining storyline of the year, and I began overseeing our 24/7 liveblog of daily news updates.

It soon became clear that COVID-19 would be an epochal chapter for the country. You could argue the realization dawned on March 11, with three developments: The World Health Organization declared that the coronavirus was now a pandemic; the NBA suspended its season after a player tested positive; and the American everyman Tom Hanks and his wife, actress Rita Wilson, announced that they, too, had COVID-19.

The coronavirus had now infected popular consciousness. It could not be ignored. [..]

It seems clear, by now, that the nation’s supply of masks, ventilators, hospital beds and other key tools was initially woefully inadequate. (NBC News has reported extensively on problems in the federal supply chain.) It is distressing but perhaps not altogether surprising that the ostensibly richest, most technologically advanced country on earth was caught flat-footed.

The deficiencies of America’s response to the crisis have put a spotlight on a wide array of structural inequalities and systemic issues, many of which predated Trump’s tenure in office. The coronavirus outbreak, not unlike the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, has exposed a sad and infuriating underside to the supposed progress of the 21st century.

African Americans have been disproportionately affected by the coronavirus, in part because of systematic disparities in access to health care and housing. Many parts of rural America face crumbling infrastructure and lack of local medical care. The already fragile American middle class, still reeling from the late-2000s housing crash and global financial crisis, seems to teeter on the brink of despair.

The country’s most vulnerable populations, especially impoverished people of color and the uninsured with serious pre-existing health conditions, oftentimes pay a grave cost because of the institutional status quo.

In truth, no country mustered a perfect response to the outbreak, to the extent perfection is even attainable for a virus so stubborn, relentless and deadly. But as we mourn the 100,000 Americans who have been taken from us, it may be worth considering all the ways we — our government and its citizens — might have acted sooner.

In the meantime — amid the memorials, the virtual funerals, the fond remembrances, the touching tributes, the millions rushing to do their part, the millions struggling to stay afloat, and the political chaos that seems to overshadow it all — a simple truth has emerged:

America now sees itself far more clearly, for better or worse, and that clarity will determine how it rebuilds its future.

Pondering the Pundits

Pondering the Pundits” is an Open Thread. It is a selection of editorials and opinions from around the news media and the internet blogs. The intent is to provide a forum for your reactions and opinions, not just to the opinions presented, but to what ever you find important.

Thanks to ek hornbeck, click on the link and you can access all the past “Pondering the Pundits”.

Follow us on Twitter @StarsHollowGzt

Eliza Orlins: I’m a public defender in Manhattan. The Central Park video is all too familiar.

Eliza Orlins is a public defender and Democratic candidate for Manhattan district attorney.

That viral video circulating of a white woman calling the police on a black man in New York’s Central Park on Monday was sadly all too familiar. The privilege that the woman in the video sought to weaponize with her 911 call is real — and the system that enables it is overdue for reform. [..]

Some might say the Central Park video is evidence of a criminal legal system that’s “broken.” But after years spent representing thousands of New Yorkers in court, I can attest that the reality is worse: The system is working the way it was designed to work — protecting the wealthy, connected, powerful and white, while disenfranchising already-marginalized communities of color.

What can be done? Certainly, end cash bail. We cannot allow people to sit in jail for months on end on the basis of an accusation — not when we can see with our own eyes how easy it is for this to happen.

But that only deals with one consequence of privilege. The privilege itself will be far harder to address.

Amanda Marcotte: With 100,000 dead and 39 million out of work, Trump trolls the libs — and his fanboys love it

The nation is in crisis. Our president is busy calling women “skanks” and floating false murder theories

Memorial Day weekend will likely be remembered by history as one marked by unimaginable tragedy. The official count of people dead from COVID-19 approached 100,000 — a milestone that will surely be passd on Tuesday or Wednesday — and the actual death toll is likely much higher. The weekend kicked off with new reports of soaring unemployment, putting the number of Americans who have filed benefit claims at 38.6 million, nearly one of every four workers in the United States.

Donald Trump, who currently occupies the White House despite losing the 2016 popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million, could not care less about all this suffering among the people he is purportedly there to serve. We know this, because he spent his weekend ranting on Twitter about pretty much anything — including obviously false conspiracy theories about MSNBC host Joe Scarborough — except the crisis he prefers to pretend isn’t happening at all. [..]

None of this appears to matter. All that matters to Trump voters is he triggers the liberals and upholds the racist values of their tribe. As long as he keeps that up, they will happily walk off a cliff with him. The rest of us aren’t numb. We’re just in a hellish holding pattern, waiting until November to see if our democracy is too broken to prevent this 41 to 43% of Americans from holding the rest of the country hostage to their evil man-child cult leader.

We’re a country that has cancer, and we’re just waiting to see if the chemo is going to work. It isn’t numbness. It’s depression.

Arwa Mahdawi: A US passport used to be an asset. Under Trump it has become a liability

The president has stopped pretending to do anything about coronavirus. Travellers from the US are about to become the pariahs of the world

Donald Trump’s favourite hobbies seem to consist of golf, Twitter and banning people from the US. Alas, he may no longer have the opportunity to do as much of the latter, because who would now want to come to the US anyway? The country is doing such a bad job of containing coronavirus that you are better off almost anywhere else. Indeed, last month, a number of American citizens in Lebanon declined a repatriation offer, saying they were safer in Beirut.

It’s not just a trip to the US that looks unappealing right now; it seems many countries aren’t exactly salivating at the prospect of hosting American visitors in the near future. The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, for example, called the border with the US a clear “vulnerability” for Canada in terms of infections; the US-Canada border has been closed since March, and will remain closed to nonessential travel until at least 21 June. [..]

An American passport used to be an asset, now it’s looking rather more like a liability. “Italy plans to reopen to travellers on June 3 –but not to Americans” ran a recent headline in the travel magazine Afar. This is somewhat misleading: Italy is opening its borders and removing quarantine restrictions only for people from other countries in Europe, it is not singling out Americans. However, Americans aren’t used to being told they can’t do things and a screenshot of the article quickly went viral.

Elizabeth Warren and Deb Haaland : The federal government fiddles as covid-19 ravages Native Americans

Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, represents Massachusetts in the Senate. Deb Haaland, a Democrat, represents New Mexico’s 1st District in the House.

For generations, the federal government has failed to honor its promises to Native American people. Now, covid-19 is ravaging Native communities, killing young people and elders alike, and devastating tribal economies. We are fighting in Congress to ensure that sovereign Native nations have the resources needed to protect the health and well-being of their citizens during this pandemic. The novel coronavirus’s terrible impact in Indian Country underscores that the federal government must live up to its unique legal and moral obligations to Native nations and act as a partner to help build security and resiliency for the future.

The coronavirus has taken a tragic toll on Indian Country. The Navajo Nation had infection rates higher than any state as of last week. In New Mexico, Native Americans make up just 11 percent of the population, but account for more than half of the covid-19 cases. Native nations’ economies have been devastated. And American Indians and Alaska Natives also disproportionately suffer from health conditions that make them especially susceptible to complications from covid-19, in part because of environmental injustices that have left their communities grappling with the health impacts of poisoned water and air. [..]

The federal response to covid-19 in Indian Country is unacceptable — and the American people strongly agree. New surveys from Data for Progress found a bipartisan majority of Americans support increasing funding for the Indian Health Service, holding the federal government legally responsible for upholding its treaty obligations, including health care, and allowing Native nations to interact directly with the federal government to receive aid instead of going through states. The same goes for prioritizing federal aid for hospitals and other essential services needed by communities of color and Native communities that are disproportionately exposed to air pollution and covid-19. There’s also broad support for letting tribes directly obtain resources from the Strategic National Stockpile without jumping through hoops at the state level — a proposal for which we introduced federal legislation.

Katrina vanden Heuvel: Lessons from Nebraska that show how progressive candidates can win

Two years ago I wrote about what Kara Eastman’s victory in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District meant for the party. Eastman’s narrow win, without the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was “stunning,” I said. “If there is to be a Democratic wave, it is outside insurgents such as Eastman who will drive it.”

This month, Eastman took 62 percent of the primary vote, about double the share of her next-closest competitor. Her landslide victory is a story of persistence. Eastman lost in the 2018 general election, but she rebounded from that and her DCCC snub. This time, with the help of the DCCC and the backing of Emily’s List and other groups, she has a real shot at winning in November — despite the pandemic, the economic crisis and the fact that Nebraska remains a deeply red state.

Progressives like Eastman are the future of the Democratic Party. Progressives like Eastman are teaching other candidates, up and down the ballot, how to win — no matter the geography or the catastrophe.

Here’s the first lesson: Don’t shy away from progressivism. Embrace it.

First Remote House Vote!

Also Democrats screwing up on privacy, again.

FISA renewal in jeopardy amid resistance from Republicans and progressives
By SARAH FERRIS, HEATHER CAYGLE, KYLE CHENEY and JOHN BRESNAHAN, Politico
05/27/2020

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and top Democrats are trying to salvage a contentious bill to renew expired surveillance tools Wednesday amid mounting opposition from Republicans and liberals in their own party.

Hours ahead of the scheduled floor vote, Pelosi and her top deputies were still whipping their members, with a growing number of progressives privately saying they would oppose the bill, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Pelosi told Democrats on a private caucus call Wednesday morning that they were still counting votes and hoped to have an update soon. But several senior Democratic aides were already predicting the bill would be yanked from the floor, given the lack of support in both parties.

Troubles with the bill emerged late Tuesday, with the threat of a veto from President Donald Trump that prompted House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to personally ask House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) to pull the bill.

Then there was a revolt from within the Democratic Party itself, with a key senator forcefully coming out against the legislation. The opposition of Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon — a fierce supporter of privacy rights on the internet — quickly fueled angst among the party’s liberal wing, which was already uneasy about the legislation.

And on Wednesday morning the Department of Justice formally came out against the legislation, a striking reversal given that Attorney General William Barr helped negotiate key privacy provisions in the bill, which passed the Senate earlier this month.

“At the end of the day, if we don’t have an agreement between the two parties, the two chambers and the president, I think this legislation is very unlikely to pass,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said during a hearing of the House Rules Committee on Wednesday. “There’s considerable divisions within both parties on this now, and it would be very difficult to muster a majority, in my view.”

But Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), who has helped shape the bill from the start, seemed to brush aside Barr’s objection on Wednesday morning, arguing that he has a “very expansive view of executive power.”

“He’s entitled to his view, but we’re the legislative branch,” Lofgren said during the Rules hearing. “We are the ones who decide what protections to put in place, and I think if we’re able to come together to accomplish that, it would be a service to the country.

Hoyer told Democrats on the caucus call Wednesday morning that leadership still wants to pass the surveillance bill this week, noting he, Pelosi and others were still working to find a path forward, according to aides familiar with the call.

Though the conflict over the so-called FISA reauthorization vote has stretched for months, the latest rupture began over a proposal by Wyden to block the FBI from collecting the web browsing data of Americans. Wyden’s plan failed by a single vote in the Senate, but Lofgren negotiated with House leaders to bring it up for a House vote when the chamber considered the broader bill.

But Lofgren also negotiated a deal with House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) to tweak the language to narrow the restrictions on the FBI, a deal that infuriated Wyden and left him and other progressives calling for the defeat of the measure.

Opposition from the left resulted in an unusual alliance, with Trump allies who oppose the FBI’s request for FISA reauthorization over claims it was abused to monitor figures on Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Some proponents of the current FISA bill — including conservative Republicans who have long sought to rein in government surveillance powers — said the fierce backlash demonstrated the potential power of the reforms.

“You can tell we’re getting to actual reform, not just by the allies, but by the opponents,” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) said during a remote hearing of the Rules Committee on Wednesday. Davidson co-sponsored an amendment on the bill with Lofgren. “I’d vote for it.”

The vote, if it takes place on Wednesday as planned, would also mark the first time that dozens of House lawmakers will vote by proxy on the floor amid the coronavirus pandemic.

As of Wednesday morning, 67 out of 233 Democrats — about 28 percent of the caucus — plan to vote by proxy from their districts.

See? Vote by Proxy.

And this Bill sucks and deserves to go down in flames Nancy, you Corporate Sellout.

Cartnoon

More places you don’t want to go.

Or at least you didn’t.

Good Indians

Comrade, I will make sure you receive the full extent of Revolutionary Justice.

Do you smoke?

Anti-Lockdown Protesters Now Calling for Dems to Die
by Will Sommer, Daily Beast
May. 27, 2020

As the head of Cowboys for Trump, Couy Griffin has led pro-Trump horse rides through Washington, D.C., and posed for a photo in the White House with Donald Trump. He’s a superfan of the president and on May 17, he made the case that Democrats should die.

“I’ve come to a place where I’ve come to a conclusion where the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat,” Griffin said to cheers at a rally at a New Mexico church. He was there to defy a public safety order pertaining to the coronavirus.

Griffin, a county commissioner in the state, hastily added that he only meant Democrats who were dead in “the political sense”—an effort at cleanup he repeated in an interview with The Daily Beast on Tuesday.

“I could’ve chosen a different verbiage, you know. I guess I need to be more careful when I choose the words that I speak,” Griffin said. “But you know, it’s just so hypocritical of the left how they’re blowing this up, like I’m some hate-speech murderer.”

But in the interview, Griffin also repeated his claim that “the only good Democrat is a dead one” and signaled that he still thinks some top Democrats—such as governors Ralph Northam (D-VA) and Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)—could be guilty of treason and the punishment that comes with it.

“You get to pick your poison: you either go before a firing squad, or you get the end of the rope,” Griffin said.

Asked by The Daily Beast about whether anti-lockdown protesters are increasingly considering violence, he didn’t hesitate in his reply.

“I’ll tell you what, partner, as far as I’m concerned, there’s not an option that’s not on the table,” Griffin said.

Envisioning a scenario in which one’s political opponents are hurt or dead is about as dark a turn as there can be for political discourse. And yet, Griffin has company. Anti-lockdown protesters across the country are ramping up their calls for violence against Democrats, even as states relax the coronavirus restrictions they’re protesting.

On Sunday, anti-lockdown protesters in Frankfort, Kentucky, hung an effigy of Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear from a tree outside the state capitol. The effigy bore Beshear’s face and a message: “Sic Semper Tyrannis.” The slogan, which means “thus always to tyrants,” is associated with the assassination of Julius Caesar and has become popular with anti-government groups.

In North Carolina, prominent anti-lockdown activist Adam Smith posted a Facebook Live video on Friday saying he and other activists were “willing to kill people” over coronavirus restrictions.

“But are we willing to kill people? Are we willing to lay down our lives?” Smith said in the video. “We have to say, ‘Yes.’ We have to say, ‘Yes.’ Is that violence? Is that terrorism? No, it’s not terrorism. I’m not trying to strike fear in people by saying, ‘I’m going to kill you.’ I’m gonna say, ‘If you bring guns, I’m gonna bring guns. If you’re armed with this, we’re going to be armed with this.’”

This isn’t the first time Smith has toyed with the idea of using violence to oppose coronavirus rules. He appeared at an armed “Big Igloo” protest in the state, in a reference to the “Boogaloo”— a movement of armed anti-government extremists eager for a second civil war that they’ve dubbed the “Boogaloo.” Other armed Boogaloo activists around the country have rallied to oppose coronavirus stay-at-home and public safety orders, with several showing up to “defend” businesses operating in defiance of them.

Smith has since tried to distance himself from his “willing to kill” video, claiming on Monday in a local television interview that he was just making a reference to the American Revolution.

“I’m just doing this in the mindset of 1776,” Smith said.

He didn’t respond to a request for comment. But the growing extremism from him and other anti-lockdown protesters and groups has created some fractures in the movement. Smith’s wife, Ashley Smith, is the co-founder of “Reopen NC,” a North Carolina Facebook group devoted to opposing pandemic-related restrictions. In April, Ashley Smith told The Daily Beast that she wasn’t concerned about catching COVID-19. “When it’s my time to go,” she explained. “God’s going to call me home.”

But Ashley Smith’s commitment to risking arrest over coronavirus restrictions has split her from at least one of her Facebook group’s founding members. In late April, ReOpen NC co-founder Kristen Cochran publicly broke with the group, saying she and Smith disagreed over “civil disobedience.”

“This movement has taken a turn that we were not in agreement with,” Cochran wrote on Facebook.

Of course anything in North Carolina is posturing to ensure they allow 50,000 Republicans to fly in and poison the State.

I’m telling you, these people don’t know the meaning of Sedition and Treason (or a lot of other complicated words) and they have Guns and I… don’t. Not that I miss one, they’re fun to play with if you take the proper precautions but I wouldn’t care to have one around because they’re really dangerous and most end up killing their owners or a close family member (which may be the point but I don’t hate my relatives that much).

However I do advocate the overthrow of the United States Government almost every day, sometimes more than once, in very public ephemeral photons. I mostly favor a Revolution at the Ballot Box but I must admit a certain sympathy for the Tree of Liberty which, as I once explained to a Republican couple who mistook my disdain for Obama with sympathy for them, “I’m pretty sure I don’t hate him for the same reasons you do.”

I must admit also that in the coming Kleptocrat/Bugaloo Race War I won’t be aiding Predatory Billionaires and their Mercenary (and utterly deluded) Millions of minions though I’m afraid more active measures than holding people’s coats and cheering from the sidelines is a bit beyond my advanced years.

The course I actually favor is the remaking of the Democratic Party as an effective champion of the people and bringing forward a Leftist agenda which is favored by a Super Majority of the Voters already.

Little things like Universal Health Care, not Billions for Parasitic Insurance Companies.

Ya know?

The Breakfast Club (Right To Be Heard)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

This Day in History

Golden Gate Bridge opens to the public; U.N. Tribunal indicts Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic; the British Navy sinks Nazi Germany’s battleship Bismarck; Actor Christopher Reeve is paralyzed.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously.

Hubert H. Humphrey

Continue reading

Jerks

Yeah, it’s all about Broadway but the situations apply to a lot of “real life” choices people are going to be forced to make soon.

Oh, scare quotes around “real life”. Even though I live in Stars Hollow and as I say New York is right over there and Boston about the same in the other direction, my involvement with live Theater is limited to financing off, off, off, off, off Broadway productions. I’ve never been to a Broadway show and probably never will be. I dunno, I might like Cursed Child because Harry Potter but it’s easily $250 considering food and tickets and transportation so… I’ll wait until the Movie version comes out on video if it’s all the same to you.

Poll Shows One Hurdle to Reopening Broadway: Fear of Jerks
By Julia Jacobs, The New York Times
May 26, 2020

New Yorkers are decidedly reluctant to return to Broadway shows in September, according to a new poll, but they are significantly more willing to go by the end of the year — as long as certain safeguards are in place.

And for the hesitant, their single greatest concern is their fellow audience members, who they worry will show up without masks or ignore social distancing rules.

A New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll, administered to New York State voters between May 17 and May 21, sought to gauge how soon New Yorkers would be comfortable attending live performances like Broadway shows. It showed a wariness of attending live theater performances, and pop and classical music concerts if they were to resume around Sept. 1, as well as a high bar for social distancing at venues that some industry leaders say it would not be possible for them to meet.

Many of the nation’s biggest live performance producers and presenters have given up on the idea of fall shows, setting their sights instead on 2021, and the poll suggests that they have taken the right read on just how ready their audiences are to come back.

Charlotte St. Martin, the president of the Broadway League, a trade organization representing producers and theater owners, said she was not surprised that a core group of people were expressing an interest in returning by the fall.

“My inbox is full of people saying, ‘Hurry up, I’m ready,’” she said, then added, “But we won’t come back before it is safe.”

Creating that feeling of safety is the hurdle live performance producers must clear to get some people to return. And for many people, the main obstacles are their fellow audience members.

For Broadway attendees who say they aren’t likely to return any time soon, the reason, in large part, is a lack of trust that others in the audience will adhere to safety protocols: that a man in row M will refuse to cover his nose and mouth, that a woman standing in line at will-call would stand too close to the person in front of her.

According to the poll, 58 percent of New Yorkers who attended at least one Broadway show in 2019 but did not report that they were very likely to return this year said that they did not trust others to adhere to social distancing. Fifty-five percent gave as a reason that they did not trust others to wear masks. These concerns trumped two other concerns they were surveyed about: “getting there would not be safe for me” and “just being in the theater district is too much for me right now.”

Some 72 percent of those polled said that for them to attend a live performance this year it would be necessary for the venue to sell tickets so that audience members were separated by six feet. And the vast majority of people — 90 percent — would require professional cleaners to disinfect the theater or concert hall in between shows.

Arts organizations that are struggling financially because of the mass cancellation of programming will have to weigh whether these kinds of safeguards will make financial sense. For Broadway and opera, industry leaders have said that a socially distanced model would be untenable as it might require shows that are expensive to produce and often lose money in the best of times to sell only a fraction of their seats.

The challenge for theaters is, “How can they make those people feel safe and still be financially viable?” Dr. Levy said.

Ms. St. Martin said the Broadway League was exploring every safety protocol from temperature checks to drones that disperse disinfectant. Social distancing, however, “won’t work for Broadway,” she said.

The poll asked respondents to answer how often they attended a variety of live performance events in 2019 — with 55 percent reporting that they went to at least one or two pop concerts and 35 percent saying they went to classical music concerts, dance performances or operas that often. Some 43 percent said they went to see at least one or two Broadway shows last year.

Roughly 38 percent of New Yorkers who attended at least one live performance in 2019 said that they would be very likely or somewhat likely to return to those cultural events around Sept. 1. Fall was not as daunting a prospect for the sports fans who said that they went to at least one or two games last year. Some 48 percent of those fans said they would be likely to return around Sept. 1, perhaps because many of those venues are outdoors.

New Yorkers showed even more of a willingness to return to museums, which may have an easier time establishing a safe environment with timed ticketing and reduced capacity. Fifty-six percent of those polled said that they were very likely, or somewhat likely, to visit this year, assuming that museums were able to implement social distancing. Reopening dates for those institutions have been something of a moving target, but many upstate museums have been preparing themselves to welcome visitors as soon as the governor’s reopening plan allows.

It’s New York. If you live around there you kind of expect people to be assholes and are pleasantly surprised if they’re not.

Pondering the Pundits

Pondering the Pundits” is an Open Thread. It is a selection of editorials and opinions from around the news media and the internet blogs. The intent is to provide a forum for your reactions and opinions, not just to the opinions presented, but to what ever you find important.

Thanks to ek hornbeck, click on the link and you can access all the past “Pondering the Pundits”.

Follow us on Twitter @StarsHollowGzt

Paul Krugman: In Praise of Fallible Leaders

We need a president who can admit it when he’s wrong.

Last week Joe Biden made an off-the-cuff joke that could be interpreted as taking African-American votes for granted. It wasn’t a big deal — Biden, who loyally served Barack Obama, has long had a strong affinity with black voters, and he has made a point of issuing policy proposals aimed at narrowing racial health and wealth gaps. Still, Biden apologized.

And in so doing he made a powerful case for choosing him over Donald Trump in November. You see, Biden, unlike Trump, is capable of admitting error.

Everybody makes mistakes, and nobody likes admitting having been wrong. But facing up to past mistakes is a crucial aspect of leadership. [..]

Trump’s pathological inability to admit error — and yes, it really does rise to the level of pathology — has been obvious for years, and has had serious consequences. For example, it has made him an easy mark for foreign dictators like North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, who know they can safely renege on whatever promises Trump thought they made. After all, for him to condemn Kim’s actions would mean admitting he was wrong to claim he had achieved a diplomatic breakthrough.

But it took a pandemic to show just how much damage a leader with an infallibility complex can inflict. It’s not an exaggeration to suggest that Trump’s inability to acknowledge error has killed thousands of Americans. And it looks likely to kill many more before this is over.

Eugene Robinson: An indelible image of this pandemic: Trump, without a mask, on a golf course

It was the murderous dictator Joseph Stalin who supposedly said that one death was a tragedy, one million deaths a mere statistic. One hundred thousand deaths are difficult to get one’s mind around. The toll in our nation from covid-19, as it reaches that horrific milestone, must be seen as a catastrophe — and an indictment.

The long Memorial Day weekend gave the pandemic an indelible visual image: President Trump, wearing a ball cap but no mask, enjoying himself on his Northern Virginia golf course. Last week, you will recall, Trump declared it was “essential” that Americans be able to spend Sunday at church services. He chose to head for the links instead. [..]

But the election is coming, Trump is in campaign mode, and the only political technique he has mastered is the driving of wedges. He has made it a political statement not to wear a mask or respect social distancing. According to polls, most Americans are willing to follow the advice of medical professionals. Enough may follow Trump’s lead, however, to guarantee that the rate of infection and death remains higher than it has to be.

The offense is not just that many of the 100,000 lost American lives might have been saved; it is also that more needless death is surely to come. Donald Trump stands indicted.

Greg Sargent: Trump’s war on reality just got a lot more dangerous

Coronavirus deaths in the United States are rapidly closing in on 100,000. The economic depression is stretching out ahead of us as far as the eye can see. Joe Biden is holding a steady lead in polls.

So President Trump has decided he has only one real chance at reelection: to bet mostly on his magical ability to create the illusion that we’re rapidly returning to normalcy, rather than taking the difficult concrete steps that would make that more likely to happen.

The signs of this are everywhere: in a new federal testing blueprint that largely casts responsibility on the states. In Trump’s new rage-tweets at the North Carolina governor over whether a full convention will be held under coronavirus conditions. And in demands for liability protections for companies so sickened workers can’t sue.

All these things, in one way or another, show that Trump’s war on reality has veered into a new place. Trump is responding to our most dire public health and economic crises in modern times with a concerted, far-reaching effort to concoct the mirage that we’re racing past both.

Paul Waldman: The GOP plan would increase coronavirus spread and slow economic recovery

“Our human capital stock is ready to get back to work,” said White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Sunday. Republicans, particularly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have a plan.

It’s not a plan to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus, or a plan to give direct assistance to struggling Americans, or a plan to ensure that state budgets don’t collapse.

Instead, it’s a plan to make sure no one is allowed to sue businesses for what they did or didn’t do during the pandemic.

It’s called “liability protection,” the new incarnation of the old conservative goal of “tort reform,” the euphemism for chaining the courthouse door to prevent people from suing when they get harmed. Not only is it morally indefensible, right now it’s also the worst possible way to help the American economy get back on its feet. [..]

In the world Republicans want to create, most of us will be more reluctant to go out, because a situation where businesses have blanket protection and also aren’t being constrained by regulation is more dangerous for everyone.

Where’s the Beef?

I don’t often shop for Beef since I prefer Pork or Seafood and I don’t think a chunk of meat is a necessary part of a meal.

But I do notice things when I go to the Market and up until now the chief symptons of Coronavirus in the Meat Department is that prices have risen (though not as much as you might think) and there are spot shortages of certain items and purchase limits.

Your experience may be different, Stars Hollow is not exactly at the end of a precarious supply chain because New York City is right over there. If you can’t find it in the Heart of Acela it probably doesn’t exist.

Things could get worse though and very quickly.

‘Something isn’t right’: U.S. probes soaring beef prices
By LEAH NYLEN and LIZ CRAMPTON, Politico
05/25/2020

Supermarket customers are paying more for beef than they have in decades during the coronavirus pandemic. But at the same time, the companies that process the meat for sale are paying farmers and ranchers staggeringly low prices for cattle.

Now, the Agriculture Department and prosecutors are investigating whether the meatpacking industry is fixing or manipulating prices.

The Department of Justice is looking at the four largest U.S. meatpackers — Tyson Foods, JBS, National Beef and Cargill — which collectively control about 85 percent of the U.S. market for the slaughter and packaging of beef, according to a person with knowledge of the probe. The USDA is also investigating the beef price fluctuations, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has confirmed.

Ok, I’ll stop right there so I don’t step on the laugh. You and I both know there is exactly ZERO chance that any Corporation or individual is going to suffer a meaningful sanction even if found amazingly guilty.

To continue-

Meatpackers say beef prices have spiked during the pandemic because plants are running at lower capacity as workers fall ill, so less meat is making its way to shelves. The four companies didn’t respond to requests for comment about the probes.

But the coronavirus crisis is highlighting how the American system of getting meat to the table favors a handful of giant companies despite a century of government efforts to decentralize it. And it’s sparking new calls for changes in meatpacking.

“It’s evidence that something isn’t right in the industry,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican who has spoken out against mergers in the agriculture industry. In April, Grassley requested federal investigations into market manipulation and unfair practices within the cattle industry. So have 19 other senators and 11 state attorneys general.

The average retail price for fresh beef in April was $6.22 per pound — 26 cents higher per pound than it was the month before, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, at the end of April, the average price for a steer was below $100 per hundred pounds; the five-year average for that same week was about $135 per hundred pounds, according to USDA’s weekly summary.

Ed Greiman, general manager of Upper Iowa Beef who formerly headed the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association, attributed the consumer price increase to plants running at lower capacity. At the same time, farmers and ranchers desperate to offload their cattle as they reach optimal weight for slaughter are cutting prices so they won’t have to kill the animals without selling them.

“I’m running at half speed,” Greiman said at an event hosted by the Nebraska Cattlemen’s Association. “Cattle are backing up because we can’t run our plants fast enough. Nothing is functioning properly. We need to be careful not to put blame on any one thing or part of the industry because we can’t get these plants going.”

Exactly 100 years ago, after years of litigation, the five biggest U.S. meatpackers — which were responsible for 82 percent of the beef market — agreed to an antitrust settlement with the Justice Department that helped break their control over the industry.

The Justice Department’s efforts to reduce concentration in meatpacking led to decades of competition. By 1980, the top four firms controlled only 36 percent of cattle slaughters in the U.S., according to a report by the Government Accountability Office.

But during the next 10 years, meatpacking experienced a huge wave of deals, enough that the USDA dubbed the time “merger mania.” By 1988, the new four biggest companies again controlled 70 percent of the beef meatpacking market.

“There’s greater concentration in meatpacking now” than in 1921, said Thomas Horton, an antitrust professor at the University of South Dakota, who previously worked at the Justice Department. The first antitrust laws were “passed to take care of the Big Five. Now we have the Big Four. We’re going backwards.”

“You’ve got at most four bidders, but the reality is there are often fewer,” said Carstensen, noting that in some states, there are only one or two meatpackers with plants.

While the structure of the industry has remained stable since 2009, changes in how the meatpackers buy cattle have also had an impact. Before 2015, about half of all cattle was purchased via direct negotiation between a rancher and meatpacker, known as the negotiated cash market. Today, about 70 percent are purchased through contracts where farmers agree to deliver cattle once they reach a certain weight with the price to be determined later — usually a formula that takes into account how much cattle sell for in the cash market.

The increase in these contracts has some advantages for ranchers, because they know they have a buyer and don’t have to spend time on negotiations, said Ted Schroeder, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University. But fewer cash trades have made it harder to figure out the right price for cattle, he said.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, more than 14,271 meatpacking workers have been sick as of May 15, according to the nonprofit Food and Environment Reporting Network. Worker illnesses and temporary plant closures have led plants to operate at about 50 percent capacity, said Schroeder.

Schroeder, who has focused on cattle prices for more than three decades, said the rising consumer prices and falling cattle prices are consistent with normal supply and demand.

“It’s economics 101. There’s less meat around, but demand is still pretty strong,” he said. “We’ve got plenty of cattle but can’t get it through the system. We are pretty close to what I would expect to happen to wholesale and farm prices given the bottleneck.”

Not everyone is persuaded. Last year, ranchers filed an antitrust suit against the four meatpackers for colluding to depress cattle prices. The suit, pending in Minneapolis federal court, alleges that Tyson, JBS, Cargill and National Beef began coordinating in 2015 to reduce the number of cattle slaughtered while also limiting how many they bought in the cash market. Ranchers with excess animals on their hands were forced to sell for less or enter into long-term contracts beneficial to meatpackers.

“The Big Four simultaneously withdrew from the cash market with intent to reduce prices across the board,” said Bill Bullard, CEO of Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund, one of the lead plaintiffs in the suit, in an interview.

The companies were able to coordinate by communicating through trade associations, said Bullard. The lawsuit is based in part on information provided by a confidential witness who worked for one of the meatpackers for a decade. The conspiracy drove prices down at least 8 percent, said Bullard.

If the meatpackers were communicating about prices, that would clearly violate criminal antitrust laws, said Carstensen. But if a company observes what a rival does and matches that behavior — sometimes called “tacit collusion”— that may not violate the law, he said.

“Coordination is not the same thing as collusion,” said Carstensen.

The Justice Department could, however, try to make a case that the meatpackers have monopolized the beef market. They could argue that the companies have engaged in “an anticompetitive set of industry practices, which taken together, violate antitrust law and require a broader restructuring,” he said.

The anti-monopoly Open Markets Institute has outlined a similar theory and pushed for breaking up the Big Four so no company controls more than 10 percent of the market. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also advocated for breaking up meatpackers as part of her presidential campaign.

Grassley, meanwhile, said he’s not ready to call for the breakup of major meatpackers, but he has “a great deal of questions about whether they’re operating within the law.”

Some other angles-

The meat industry is trying to get back to normal. But workers are still getting sick — and shortages may get worse.
By Taylor Telford, Washington Post
May 25, 2020

Tyson Foods, the largest meat processor in the United States, has transformed its facilities across the country since legions of its workers started getting sick from the novel coronavirus. It has set up on-site medical clinics, screened employees for fevers at the beginning of their shifts, required the use of face coverings, installed plastic dividers between stations and taken a host of other steps to slow the spread.

Despite those efforts, the number of Tyson employees with the coronavirus has exploded from less than 1,600 a month ago to more than 7,000 today, according to a Washington Post analysis of news reports and public records.

What has happened at Tyson — and in the meat industry overall — shows how difficult it is to get the nation back to normal, even in essential fields such as food processing. Meat companies have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on measures such as protective gear, paid leave and ventilation systems since they were forced to shut dozens of plants that were among the top coronavirus hot spots outside urban areas.

But the industry has still experienced a surge in cases, and some companies say they are limited in just how much they can keep workers separated from one another. Only a portion of the labor force has gone back to work — some workers kept away on purpose — and the nation’s meat supply remains deeply strained as barbecue season gets underway.

A May report from CoBank, which specializes in serving rural America, warns that meat supplies in grocery stores could shrink as much as 35 percent, prices could spike 20 percent and the impact could become even “more acute later this year” as the knock-on effects on the U.S. agriculture supply chain are felt.

What’s clear is that the industry’s efforts so far, though they may have lessened the virus’s spread, have not come close to stopping it. Over the past month, the number of infections tied to three of the country’s biggest meat processors — Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods and JBS — has gone from just over 3,000 to more than 11,000, according to the Post analysis.

Throughout the industry, worker deaths have tripled, surging from 17 to at least 63, according to the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting, which is tracking outbreaks through local news reports.

Four of the plants that reopened saw outbreaks, with more than 700 positive cases, according to the center: Tyson Foods operations in Logansport, Ind., Perry, Iowa, and Waterloo, Iowa; and a Smithfield plant in Sioux Falls, S.D.

In Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota, coronavirus cases linked to meat workers represent 18, 20 and 29 percent of the states’ total cases, respectively, according to the Environmental Working Group, a nonprofit advocacy organization.

Many plants that have reopened are operating at reduced capacity, either because of widespread absences or to reduce the number of workers on a shift to allow for social distancing. Closures have affected 45,000 workers, according to the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, the largest organization representing meatpacking workers.

Tyson’s biggest pork plant, in Waterloo, reopened May 7 with new safety precautions and social distancing policies. “Our top priority is the health and safety of our team members, their loved ones and our communities,” Tom Hart, the plant’s manager, said in a news release.

Tyson had just finished running a national ad campaign warning, “The food supply chain is breaking.”

But the Waterloo plant reopened the same day that health officials in Black Hawk County, where it is located, reported that more than 1,000 employees out of 2,700 there had tested positive for the coronavirus.

“Tyson did not go above and beyond,” said state Rep. Ras Smith (D), who represents Waterloo. “They did what they already should have done.” He called Tyson’s handling of the outbreak “appalling.”

Smith and fellow state Rep. Timi Brown-Powers (D) said they suspect that President Trump’s executive order encouraged Tyson to reopen faster, a point the company disputes. The plant shuttered April 22 after weeks of resisting calls from local officials. The lawmakers said they met with the plant’s human resources director on May 1 and were told that the facility was weeks away from reopening.

Four days later, they said, they were told that production would resume May 7. They said there was no explanation for the new timeline.

“It really doesn’t feel like our local Tyson was in this big of a hurry to reopen,” Brown-Powers said. “It became a hurry for them because of the pressure they’re getting from above.”

“Now that Trump issued that executive order, it gives plants this insurmountable feeling that they are invincible,” said Kim Cordova, a local union president in Greeley, Colo., where a JBS beef plant was shuttered in April amid a coronavirus outbreak that has killed at least seven workers.

In practice, the order was more narrow, legal experts said. It designated meat producers as critical infrastructure and ordered them to follow federal guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. It also enabled Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue to take steps to get meat companies federal contracts and access to protective gear.

OSHA — the federal agency in charge of worker safety — has not issued enforceable guidelines for protecting employees from the coronavirus, as it did during the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, instead opting for voluntary guidance. The agency has said it plans no enforcement action so as not to overly burden companies during the pandemic.

Smithfield cited the Trump executive order in federal court in Missouri, arguing that it meant local and state authorities no longer had authority over meat processors. It was part of the company’s defense in a lawsuit filed by an unnamed employee alleging that Smithfield failed to protect workers by not accommodating social distancing and by discouraging sick employees from staying home.

“The president has identified state interference with meat and poultry processors as ‘undermining critical infrastructure during the national emergency,’ ” Smithfield’s attorneys said in court documents. “State law, whether statutory or through private lawsuits, cannot be used to regulate the subject matter covered by the EO. This task belongs exclusively to the federal government.”

U.S. District Judge David Gregory Kays dismissed the case 12 days later, citing the “significant steps” Smithfield had taken to reduce the risk of coronavirus infection at its plant in Milan, Mo.

In a news release, the company praised the outcome of the case, which it said was “frivolous, full of specious allegations that were without factual or legal merit.”

Less than two weeks after the case was dismissed, voluntary testing at the Milan plant revealed an outbreak at the facility, according to local news reports and the worker behind the lawsuit. She told The Post that fearful employees have been staying home, and those who do show up for shifts are working overtime to keep up production.

On April 16, the JBS beef plant in Greeley was forced to shut down after roughly 100 workers contracted the virus and three died. Another worker died during the closure, and four others since the facility reopened April 24.

Coronavirus cases at the plant now exceed 300, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment records show.

“We are raising hell because the numbers continue to rise,” said Cordova, the local union president. “People are scared to go to work because people keep getting sick. There are hundreds of workers who have not come back. We don’t know if they have moved on, if they are on ventilators. We can’t find them.”

Deny and pretend.

As Meatpacking Plants Reopen, Data About Worker Illness Remains Elusive
By Michael Corkery, David Yaffe-Bellany, and Derek Kravitz, The New York Times
May 25, 2020

The Smithfield Foods plant in Tar Heel, N.C., is one of the world’s largest pork processing facilities, employing about 4,500 people and slaughtering roughly 30,000 pigs a day at its peak.

And like more than 100 other meat plants across the United States, the facility has seen a substantial number of coronavirus cases. But the exact number of workers in Tar Heel who have tested positive is anyone’s guess.

Smithfield would not provide any data when asked about the number of illnesses at the plant. Neither would state or local health officials.

“There has been a stigma associated with the virus,” said Teresa Duncan, the director of the health department in Bladen County, where the plant is located. “So we’re trying to protect privacy.”

Along with nursing homes and prisons, meatpacking facilities have proven to be places where the virus spreads rapidly. But as dozens of plants that closed because of outbreaks begin reopening, meat companies’ reluctance to disclose detailed case counts makes it difficult to tell whether the contagion is contained or new cases are emerging even with new safety measures in place. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there were nearly 5,000 meatpacking workers infected with the virus as of the end of last month. But the nonprofit group Food & Environment Reporting Network estimated last week that the number has climbed to more than 17,000. There have been 66 meatpacking deaths, the group said.

And the outbreaks may be even more extensive.

For weeks, local officials received conflicting signals from state leaders and meatpacking companies about how much information to release, according to internal emails from government health agencies obtained through public records requests by Columbia University’s Brown Institute for Media Innovation and provided to The New York Times. The mixed messages left many workers and their communities in the dark about the extent of the spread in parts of Iowa, Nebraska and Colorado.

The emails also reveal the deference some county officials have shown toward the giant meatpacking companies and how little power they have in pushing the companies to stem outbreaks.

There’s more like that but I commend your patience for reading this far.

This is a big deal and it’s not going to get fixed soon.

Cartnoon

I’m not sure if I’ve highlighted this before. I don’t remember it and I can’t find it in my archives but I might have missed it.

Anyway you can’t deny it’s on topic so watch it again.

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