I tell you, I come from a long line of Circus folk.

Anderson Cooper of CNN, among others, doesn’t quite understand how Oil could suddenly (well, sort of) become worthless garbage you have to pay people to cart away.

Simple really.

Crude Oil. even the highest grades like Saudi Light and Sweet and Texas Intermediate and Brent, is a toxic and obnoxious substance. While with Soybeans and Milk you can just kind of plow them under to rot (not really a good idea because there are other Environmental concerns), dumping Crude Oil is going to get you a fine from the EPA (nah, who am I kidding?) and turn your Dump Site into a Superfund Project.

Trans Canada (now TC as if that fools anybody) refuses to die or give up on it’s Keystone XL dream but Tar Sands in Alberta are shutting down about as fast as possible. Likewise marginal U.S. Fracking Production. I would have wished it didn’t take a complete Economic collapse (which was totally possible) but the alternative was roasting in an oven, even now it is probably too late.

Oil is not valuable except for its utility, which is considerable, but you can’t eat it. This is why Bananas rule.

How bad is it?

Yesterday J.R. Ewing (who was only shot, not killed, though Larry Hagman is dead) paid $37+ for each Barrel the Department of Sanitation guys (who by the way deserve a round of applause in general) would cart away.

The overwhelming cause is Demand Drop. No Cruises, No Plane Trips, No Crossing State Borders (stupid and easy to beat, why bother?), you can see it at the Pump and the next time I stop for a Fill Up I’m going to ask the Manager how much they’ll pay me!

But there are other factors that deserve some consideration.

It’s the close of May Futures. Futures are not based on deliverable product, like everything else it’s a Casino. They will sell you as many Futures as you like so you have Chips to play with and if you don’t lose them all they’ll happily redeem them until they run out and then the Cashier’s Window is closed.

Sucks to be you, ask Unindicted Co-conspirator Bottomless Pinocchio about it.

Generally people roll over their positions into new investments so that ‘Fictional’ Oil in excess of what can be actually produced ‘Disappears’ in the same fashion as Destroyed Wealth. Somebody has money in their pocket, just not you.

But if somebody turned up on your doorstep with 10,000 Barrels of Crude Oil what the heck would you do with it? That’s 55,000 gallons or about as much as a standard 25 Yard Swimming Pool. And it stinks, did I mention it stinks?

And of course 10,000 Barrels is a miniscule fraction of the positions that were liquidated yesterday in ‘Fictional’ Oil and what those people basically did is pay so they didn’t have huge storage costs (since they would have had to accept delivery, it’s a contract) which has gone through the roof since we only have days of capacity at current rates of production and consumption.

This also means that the current situation is not going to end soon. At normal consumption we have 3 to 6 Months already pumped and floating around, now there’s really no telling how long it will take to work off the surplus.

Bad news for the Carbon Cartel but I can’t say I’m unhappy. While we may see some spot recovery this is basically the end of the Oil Business as we know it. By the time Demand for Energy rises again non-Carbon Renewables will clearly own the Market.

Too Much Oil: How a Barrel Came to Be Worth Less Than Nothing
By Stanley Reed and Clifford Krauss, The New York Times
April 20, 2020

Something bizarre happened in the oil markets on Monday: Prices fell so much that some traders paid buyers to take oil off their hands.

The price of the main U.S. oil benchmark fell more than $50 a barrel to end the day about $30 below zero, the first time oil prices have ever turned negative. Such an eye-popping slide is the result of a quirk in the oil market, but it underscores the industry’s disarray as the coronavirus pandemic decimates the world economy.

Demand for oil is collapsing, and despite a deal by Saudi Arabia, Russia and other nations to cut production, the world is running out of places to put all the oil the industry keeps pumping out — about 100 million barrels a day.
…
Prices went negative — meaning that anyone trying to sell a barrel would have to pay a buyer $30 — in part because of the way oil is traded. Futures contracts that require buyers to take possession of oil in May are expiring on Tuesday, and nobody wanted the oil because there was no place to store it. Contracts for June delivery were still trading for about $22 a barrel, down 16 percent for the day.

“If you are a producer, your market has disappeared and if you don’t have access to storage you are out of luck,” said Aaron Brady, vice president for energy oil market services at IHS Markit, a research and consulting firm. “The system is seizing up.”

Refineries are unwilling to turn oil into gasoline, diesel and other products because so few people are commuting or taking airplane flights, and international trade has slowed sharply. Oil is already being stored on barges and in any nook and cranny companies can find. One of the better parts of the oil business these days is owning storage tankers.

“Traders have sent prices up and down on speculation, hopes, tweets and wishful thinking,” said Louise Dickson, an oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, a research and consulting firm. “But now reality is sinking in.”

The world has an estimated storage capacity for 6.8 billion barrels, and nearly 60 percent is filled, according to energy experts.

Some of the oil glut is evident in Cushing, Okla., a critical storage hub where the oil that trades on the U.S. futures market is delivered. With a capacity to hold 80 million barrels of oil, Cushing has only 21 million barrels of free storage left, according to Rystad Energy, or less than two days of American production. As recently as February, Cushing was not even up to 50 percent. Now, experts say it will be filled to the brim in May.

Storage is almost completely filled in the Caribbean and South Africa, and Angola, Brazil and Nigeria may run out of warehousing capacity within days.
…
The oil infrastructure is complicated and it’s not easy to turn off the taps. In addition, countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, whose economies are reliant on oil, only reluctantly cut production.

Shutting down oil wells and then restarting them when demand returns can require expensive manpower and equipment. Fields do not always recover their former production. In addition, some oil companies keep pumping, even if they are losing money, in order to pay interest on their debts and stay alive.

The huge drop in prices on Monday was exaggerated by the way oil prices are set.

When traders sell oil they guarantee delivery at a future time. Normally the price differences between oil for next month and the following one are relatively minor. But on Monday oil to be delivered next month, or May, was essentially deemed worthless. Oil set for delivery in June also fell but not nearly as much — more reflective of the market’s view on the current value of crude.
…
A little over a week ago, there was some optimism in the oil industry. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers said they would cut 9.7 million barrels a day of production, or about 10 percent of global oil output, the largest cut ever. It was a grim acknowledgment that global demand had collapsed.

But that record cut will not be nearly enough. Analysts expect daily oil consumption to fall by as much as 29 million barrels in April, about three times the cuts pledged by OPEC and its allies, and May isn’t expected to be much different.

“It’s relatively impressive in terms of the overall number, but it’s not enough to tighten the market between now and the fourth quarter of 2020,” David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, a commodities pricing firm, said about the cut by OPEC and its partners.

What? You didn’t notice that? How woke are you?

Not funny though entirely ironic in the ‘Don’t they realize he’s a Communist?’ sense. Our good friend dday has himself an interview in The Hill which is not exactly a hotbed of Lefty sentiment.

Yup, that’s what he really looks like (I disagree with the trendy Gen Z half Rayban Frames).

Four of them actually out of a family of Five. Right next door on Sores and Boils Lane here in Stars Hollow.

Does this bother me?

I must say the primary topic of conversations with my Therapist recently has been my Anxiety instead of my Depression (it hasn’t gone away, it’s just less dominant in comparison) but it’s centered around the fact I’m truly dependent on a steady supply chain of Cheetos and Beer here in Mom’s Basement.

Anxiety attacks mimic some of the symptoms which makes it much, much worse.

So I’m now in weekly with an option for more and an offer of ‘Medication’ which, unless it’s a steady diet of Happy Pills or total unconsciousness for the next 2 or 3 Months, is not going to help.

Not that this is going away in 2 or 3 Months, just that you might be able to get better care because you won’t be one of Thousands. You’ll probably qualify for a Vent (120+? It was a good Life. Yes, but I’m not done with it yet.).

Does this bother me? Or even that I have repeated myself? Repetition is a Rhetorical trick.

And, not proximately. I’ve actually been far closer.

My Activist Brother’s Boss was striken 2 or 3 weeks ago and is recently relieved of his Medically Induced Coma (they do that so you don’t rip the Vent out because they’re horrible). My Brother’s job, because he’s the lowest fish in the feeding chain, was to mask and glove up and bring him his Laptop after he’d already moped around the office for a Week or so.

The Boss, not my Brother, had attended a Funeral and several others were victims so probably that.

On the other hand there’s not much ‘Social Distance’ however hard you try.

Wash your hands! Don’t touch your face!

I also know ER Physicians who have definitely been in contact with positive cases and they’re ok so far because you spend 4 Years washing your hands and not touching your face just to be a Doctor at all. Sing ‘Row, Row, Row Your Boat’ twice or do the same with ‘Happy Birthday’, there’s your 20 Seconds of scrubbing. Don’t forget your nails and wrists.

So, next door.

Because we have no studies that show the extent of exposure in the General Population we actually have no idea how Communicable and Fatal this is. In the U.S. we’re only testing people sick enough to go to the Hospital which is… pretty sick. On several levels including the gross abdication of responsibility on the part of the Government.

I feel bad for them but I don’t imagine aerosols are wafting down the street.

And if they were what could you do? When I think of parallels I think of Gas Attacks in The Great War, Bhopal, Chernobyl. Of course I lived through the Spanish Flu, Tuberculosis, and Polio too, none an automatic death sentence.

‘Someone in our building has it’: Covid-19 fuels tensions at apartments and condos
By Michael E. Miller, Wsahington Post
April 20, 2020

Although most Americans have retreated to single-family homes, about a quarter cannot. For the nearly 70 million people in multifamily buildings, isolation is often impossible and tensions are unavoidable.

Shared spaces are suddenly sites of possible contagion. Each ride in the elevator could mean exposure. Each trip to the laundry room could bring contamination.

Some buildings have responded by restricting access, increasing cleaning, installing sanitizer dispensers and adding plexiglass at front desks.

But the new rules — or a lack of them — have left many residents angry or afraid.

“There is no quarantine if you live in public housing,” lamented one resident of Highland Terrace, located in the poorest part of the nation’s capital.

In New York, one co-op stirred controversy when it barred a doctor who was staying at his brother’s place while treating patients with covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

In Miami, condos that were slow to shut their swimming pools drew widespread ire.

And in one Washington condo, residents worried about catching the virus from a neighbor gave her pads for her dog to pee on so she wouldn’t go outside.

As the pandemic spreads, more buildings are informing residents when one of their own is infected. But the announcements often contain few details, sparking debates over whether privacy or public health should come first.

As the pandemic spreads, more buildings are informing residents when one of their own is infected. But the announcements often contain few details, sparking debates over whether privacy or public health should come first.

At the Watergate East, Peterson said she feared the meeting — at which residents would vote on a $3.5 million loan for a new heating system — would turn the wealthy co-op into a cluster of infection.

“This was too dangerous,” she told The Washington Post. “It was outrageous.”

Ok. In Wisconsin Democrats crawled over broken glass to vote on a State Supreme Court Justice. I find your lack of faith disturbing, you do not recognize the power of The Force. On the other hand, a Heating System? That’s what’s got you all worked up? At North Lake we get into petty disputes about when you can Water Ski (pretty much any time, but don’t crash into my Dock asshole or expect any sympathy if you do).

To continue-

Carole Buncher was on her daily walk in Northwest Washington when she asked her exercise partner the question that was increasingly on her mind.

“Do you even know someone who has the virus?”

“Someone in our building has it,” Susan Lesser replied.

The septuagenarian stroll came to a stop.

Buncher, who lives three blocks from Lesser, was outraged that her friend had not mentioned the case in her building before the walk.

“Who is it?” she recalled asking.

“I don’t know,” Lesser said.

“That’s crazy,” Buncher replied, putting several more feet between her and her friend.

Later that weekend, Buncher, a retired analyst at the Government Accountability Office, posted a message on the Cleveland Park neighborhood mailing list.

“The co-op building in the Van Ness complex has reported that a resident has tested positive for the coronavirus,” she wrote on March 28. “Management is not releasing the name nor location (i.e., floor) of this resident. They are citing privacy and guidance from their attorneys as the reasons for withholding this information. I question whether privacy, which may have applied during, for instance, HIV testing, is an appropriate reason to withhold this information.”

Buncher was expecting a flood of support. After all, information on who was sick could prompt others to get tested or go into quarantine.

Instead, she got “a small firestorm,” she recalled.

“Naming names is a hideous suggestion,” one person responded.

“Stop the ‘us versus them,’ ” wrote another. “For all you know you’re going to be the ‘them’ tomorrow morning. We all choose to live in [an] apartment/condos.”

In a city full of attorneys, lawyers soon chimed in on the email thread to warn that disclosing the name or apartment number of a covid-19 patient could put landlords, co-op boards or condo associations at legal risk.

Within the co-op, people began wondering who had leaked word of the infection.

Lesser emailed her neighbors to say she was the one.

“It was current information,” she told The Post when asked why she had mentioned the infection to her friend. “What the hell else are we talking about?”

Lesser, a retired clinical social worker whose nephew died of covid-19 days after the controversy, said she was proud of how her co-op had handled things.

At the Van Ness Apartments, a stone’s throw away in the same complex, Kara Harkins said she thought her building had handled things all wrong.

She had received an email from the property manager on March 27 saying that “a resident or employee” had contracted the virus and was in quarantine.

“Please be assured that we are taking the necessary preventive steps for containment,” the email said. “This includes intensive cleaning of common-area spaces of the property.”

Harkins, a programmer who is also on the tenants’ association, pushed for more details.

“Have you asked the person where they went?” she replied. “Are we safe doing our laundry?”

She got a curt response, she said.

“The safety and security of our residents is our primary concern,” Marty McKenna from Equity Residential, which owns the building, told The Post. Staff regularly cleaned “high touch” areas, including laundry rooms, which were safe to use, he said. But privacy issues prevented him from sharing details on the coronavirus case.

And, rightly so. Name and shame someone who is merely sick through no fault of their own?

What kind of heartless bastard are you? Want to bring back Yellow Stars too?

Nonsense about how hard this has hit Upper West Siders like my Uncle the Vice President at Chase Manhattan Bank. Crap, everyone left for the Hamptons and you’re not quite rich enough for your own Dacha? Sucks to be you, my Uncle has one on Shelter Island (it’s a pain in the ass to get to).

Moving on-

Although the coronavirus has sown the same fear in all kinds of multifamily buildings, it has hit the poorest the hardest.

At the Park Morton public housing complex in Northwest Washington, the approximately 250 residents don’t have laundry machines in their buildings, according to Shonta’ High, resident council president. With some nearby laundromats shut down, High said, she has taken to washing her clothes in a bucket.

Residents have long complained of poor conditions, including the stench from a decomposing body in an apartment earlier this year, she said. The coronavirus has only made things worse.

A spokesman for the D.C. Housing Authority, which operates buildings where about 12,500 people live, said that it had increased cleanings of common areas to twice a day, plus deep cleans on weekends, and that maintenance staff continue to perform emergency work orders.

At Highland Terrace in Southeast Washington, Markina Hall’s refrigerator and toilet had recently broken, leaving her family of five with one toilet and no fresh food. Neither could be fixed during the pandemic, she said she was told.

“So I’m going to the store literally every other day,” she said.

She often comes home to dirty masks and gloves hanging on the railings, she said.

“There is dried blood on the walls,” she said.

Hall’s husband lost his job at a fast-food restaurant and her GED courses were canceled. The only member of the household who still has a job is her 21-year-old son, who washes dishes at a hospital.

“He’s hands-on,” she said. “I’m terrified.”

If any of this seems like acceptable behavior to you, I invite study of Camus’ La Peste. The Universe does not care. We owe it to ourselves (and others) to be compassionate.

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

Nazi Germany’s dictator Adolf Hitler born; Gunfire erupts at Columbine High; Cubans in the Mariel boatlift arrive in the U.S.; Ted Williams makes his baseball debut; Singer Luther Vandross born.

Happily, the days when overt racial discrimination and segregation were championed by social conservatives are long past.

George Takei

Continue reading

Marble League 2019

Competitive Marble Racing Finds Fans in a World Missing Sports
By Mariel Padilla, The New York Times
April 18, 2020

Videos of competitive marble racing have gained widespread attention as nearly every sporting event, major and minor, has been placed on hiatus because of the coronavirus pandemic.

“It sucks us into another world, another dimension without war, misery and negativity,” said Dion Bakker, a founder of the YouTube channel Jelle’s Marble Runs.

The world of marble racing recently got a boost from a tweet featuring a video of marbles rebounding along an outdoor sand track.
…
Greg Woods, 31, of Iowa, a commentator for Jelle’s Marble Runs, said the races provide the same emotional experience as sports with human players.

“There are still underdogs and upsets — something to cheer about,” he said.

The Bakkers’ YouTube channel, which gained more than 150,000 subscribers last month, has partnered with Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile and been featured on ESPN and NBC Sports. The videos draw about 10 million views per month, with nearly half coming from the United States, Dion Bakker said.

Jelle Bakker has been making marble runs since he was 4 because he liked the colors, movements and sounds of the marbles, his brother said.

Mr. Woods stumbled upon his first Jelle’s Marble Runs video in 2016 and was struck by the starting lineup and the marbles’ names. For example, Team Galactic are transparent spheres with brown and silver swirls and the O’rangers are solid orange.
…
“There’s really no handbook for how you call these races,” Mr. Woods said. “Certain things you can pull from auto racing and human sports, but there’s only so many ways to describe how marbles roll.”
…
Occasionally, Jelle Bakker orchestrates a moment that mimics human behavior, Mr. Woods said.

Once, a marble streaked across the track, delaying an event, before it was escorted off the premises. Another time, a fight broke out in the audience among rival fans.

The marbles’ teams have home tracks. There are referees and a stadium of fans — all marbles. When the races begin, gravity pulls each glass ball, 16 millimeters wide, down a winding track to the soundtrack of a cheering crowd.

Time Check, an all-male a cappella group at Marist College in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., has even recorded chants for each of the marble teams.

The team behind Jelle’s Marble Runs has since expanded to 15 people. In addition to the Bakker brothers in the Netherlands and Mr. Woods in the United States, there’s a composer in Greece, a graphic designer in Belgium, a manager in Germany and others in charge of frame-by-frame analyses.

“We had no expectations when we started filming marble runs,” Dion Bakker said. “We thought we would stop eventually, but it was a big success.”

Big fan of Pink Floyd.