This is already a Bear Market.

Just in case you’ve missed it we’re (well, not me personally since I only invest in Banana Futures and Off Off Off Broadway Plays) over 30% below our Record Highs of a mere Month ago and pushing the January 20th, 2017 Valuations (only a 4% gain over 3 Years).

And we are Limit Down today before the Open (at least in Futures, 6.5% at the Bell which is just below the initial actual threshhold for a Trading Halt).

Greed still rules, witness yesterday’s Dead Cat but I think it’s damn silly, 19K if it holds and my estimation of actual value (if you consider Market Cap in any way related to Revenue which evidently most people don’t) only 10K so we have 50% more to go before bottom.

Oh, and 20% Unemployment and you can’t go anywhere and there’s nothing on TV and no end in sight. Tell me how you feel about it in a month.

Good Times. Proud to be ‘Murikan. Best Health System and strongest Economy in the World.

Stock futures drop, hit ‘limit down’ halt, amid unprecedented volatility from coronavirus crisis
by Fred Imbert and Yun Li, CNBC
Tue, Mar 17 2020

Stock futures pointed to big losses on Wednesday as the markets remained highly volatile with the government response to the coronavirus fallout still unfolding.

A violent reversal in Treasury yields in response to a potential $1 trillion stimulus package helped to unnerve investors.

Around 6:42 a.m. ET, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicated a more than 1,000-point loss at Wednesday’s open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were also down. Futures contracts for the indices were in “limit down” territory, a situation where trading is halted after futures have hit a 5% loss and can go no lower. The S&P 500 gained 6% on Tuesday.

Exchange-traded funds that track the indexes are not subject to limit-down restrictions, however, and suggested what the open would look like.

On Tuesday, CNBC learned the White House is weighing a fiscal package of more than $1 trillion that includes direct payments to Americans and financial relief to small businesses and the airline industry. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also said separately at a press conference that corporations will be able to defer tax payments of up to $10 million while individuals could defer up to $1 million in payments to the Internal Revenue Service.

“When you decimate the restaurant industry, the travel industry, the hotel industry, the airline industry .. the cruise line industry, obviously you’re going to take a huge divot out of economic activity,” DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said on a webcast Tuesday after the bell. Gundlach put the odds of a recession at 90% and said it was “ludicrous” to think otherwise. He added he believes the stimulus will end up being even bigger than $1 trillion

Gundlach also commented on the reversal higher in Treasury yields, noting it could put the U.S. in the uncomfortable position of having both a weak economy and rising rates, as new debt issuance to pay for the stimulus floods the bond market.

2020 Presidential Primaries: 4 States Minus One – 441 Delegates

There were four states scheduled to vote today, Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio. On Monday, Ohio has “postponed” its primary citing the outbreak of the highly contagious coronavirus.

There are 441 delegates at stake in the three remaining states that were all won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Washington state’s primary was called for Vice President Joe Biden and California was called for Senator Sanders.

  • Arizona primaries – 67 delegates. Polls close at 9 PM ET.
  • Florida primaries – 219 delegates. Polls close at 7 PM ET.
  • Illiois primaries – 155 delegates. Polls close at 8 PM ET.

The Wearing Of The Green

 

O Paddy dear, and did ye hear the news that’s goin’ round?
The shamrock is by law forbid to grow on Irish ground!
No more Saint Patrick’s Day we’ll keep, his color can’t be seen
For there’s a cruel law ag’in the Wearin’ o’ the Green.
I met with Napper Tandy, and he took me by the hand
And he said, “How’s poor old Ireland, and how does she stand?”
“She’s the most distressful country that ever yet was seen
For they’re hanging men and women there for the Wearin’ o’ the Green.”
So if the color we must wear be England’s cruel red
Let it remind us of the blood that Irishmen have shed
And pull the shamrock from your hat, and throw it on the sod
But never fear, ’twill take root there, though underfoot ’tis trod.
When laws can stop the blades of grass from growin’ as they grow
And when the leaves in summer-time their color dare not show
Then I will change the color too I wear in my caubeen
But till that day, please God, I’ll stick to the Wearin’ o’ the Green.

You can listen to it here.

Irish Up

You know, it’s not that I actually want to get drunk, listen to violins, accordions, and bagpipes, and beat the crap out of someone.

First of all it’s only the ones that deserve it.

Dropkick Murphys

The Season’s Upon Us

Smash Shit Up

Going Out In Style

The State Of Massachusetts

You know, as much as I like them, they’re not the only Band.

The O’Reillys and the Paddyhats

Dogs on the Leash

Irish Way

Green Blood

Flogging Molly

Drunken Lullabies

Don’t Shut ‘Em Down

What’s Left Of The Flag

The Rumjacks

An Irish Pub Song

A Fistful O’ Roses

Blows & Unkind Words

Not a Rant

Because Lewis Black would never ever do that.

I’d warn that it’s not safe for work, except you’re not at work.

And no, I’m not obsessed with Toilet Paper, unless I run out.0

The Dead Cat 3/17/20

As of 9:43 this morning, 13 minutes after opening, the Market entered negative territory again.

Even Cramer is not calling to buy the dips, his advice is to dump the highs.

Dow 19K after half an hour!

The Breakfast Club (Shamrocks)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

This Day in History

St. Patrick dies; President George W. Bush gives Saddam Hussein 48 hour ultimatum; Franklin D. Roosevelt gets married; Baseball players including Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa testify to congress about steroid use.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

It’s not that the Irish are cynical. It’s rather that they have a wonderful lack of respect for everything and everybody.

Brendan Behan

Continue reading

Pondering the Pundits

Pondering the Pundits” is an Open Thread. It is a selection of editorials and opinions from around the news media and the internet blogs. The intent is to provide a forum for your reactions and opinions, not just to the opinions presented, but to what ever you find important.

Thanks to ek hornbeck, click on the link and you can access all the past “Pondering the Pundits”.

Follow us on Twitter @StarsHollowGzt

Charles M. Blow: A Deadly Lack of Leadership

The president congratulates himself.

This is what it looks like when a crisis of leadership makes its way into our health and our homes, when lack of prudence induces panic, when the president himself cannot be trusted.

The coronavirus pandemic changes the view of Donald Trump’s incompetence, because this time it is intimate. This time what’s at stake isn’t abstract in the mind of the average American, like constitutional law or international relations. It is not far away, like families at the border or Nazis in Charlottesville. It is not about carnal and craven acts that take place between two people or are committed by one against another, like assaulting women or paying them off.

No, this is about all of us and all the things closest to us: our health and safety, our children and parents, our ability to move freely and sleep soundly, our ability to go to work and send our children to school. This is about our ability to participate in America’s two great religious non-religions: politics and sports.

This crisis is transcendent, which makes Trump’s disastrous approach to dealing with it all the more transparent.

Robert Reich: America has no real public health system – coronavirus has a clear run

Trump’s response has been inadequate but the system is rigged anyway. As always, the poor will be hit hardest

Dr Anthony S Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and just about the only official in the Trump administration trusted to tell the truth about the coronavirus, said last Thursday: “The system does not, is not really geared to what we need right now … It is a failing, let’s admit it.”

While we’re at it, let’s admit something more basic. The system would be failing even under a halfway competent president. The dirty little secret, which will soon become apparent to all, is that there is no real public health system in the United States.

The ad hoc response fashioned late Friday by House Democrats and the White House may help a bit, although it’s skimpy, as I’ll explain.

As the coronavirus outbreak in the US follows the same grim exponential growth path first displayed in Wuhan, China, before herculean measures were put in place to slow its spread there, America is waking up to the fact that it has almost no public capacity to deal with it.

Richard Wolffe: Sanders and Biden were far apart on how to survive the disaster ahead

There is only one issue in front of American voters currently – how to survive the coronavirus crisis

This is no time for presidential debates and wild promises from the candidates. It’s also no time for presidential tweets and wild promises from the incumbent.

The split screen of Sunday’s debate was not between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders; it was between the cold hard reality of a global pandemic and the cold dead arguments about negative TV ads.

There is only one issue in front of American voters, and it is the reason they are emptying supermarket shelves and wondering how they will pay their bills this month and next.

That issue is not about past votes in the Senate, who supported the war in Iraq, or how to unite the Democratic party. It’s about how to survive the health and financial disaster that lies ahead.

On that issue, Biden and Sanders were even further apart than their socially-distanced podiums on CNN’s debate set.

Jamelle Bouie: Bernie Sanders and the Case of the Missing Youth Vote

Apathy is not the problem.

Young voters want Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee for president. But they don’t seem to want to turn out for him, or at least not in the numbers he needs to win. [..]

In state after state, the youngest voters have been staying home even as overall turnout skyrocketed. Youth voting was down 18 percent in New Hampshire, 9 percent in North Carolina and 20 percent in Texas. Obviously, this absence of young people has hindered Sanders’s campaign for the Democratic nomination, but it has also undermined his theory of electability and change, which depends on mobilizing huge numbers of people — young people in particular — to execute a “political revolution.”

So what happened here? If young voters like Sanders so much (and they do; 52 percent have a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view), why haven’t they turned out for him?

Amanda Marcotte: Republicans are learning that “rugged individualism” won’t stop the coronavirus

Trump’s incompetence is a real problem — but decades of right-wing ideology have also made this crisis worse

So far, most of the panic over the coronavirus outbreak has been driven by the undeniable incompetence of Donald Trump. At every turn, Trump has made this situation worse — even going so far as to try to discourage testing to bamboozle the public and, I suspect, tanking the markets by screwing up an Oval Office address because he’s too vain to wear glasses so he can see well enough to read a teleprompter.

That’s all true. But it’s also important to understand that the larger Republican Party, even without Trump, is also to blame for what looks to be a serious public health crisis. Right-wing ideology, often marketed as “rugged individualism” but perhaps better understood as an aversion to the very concept of a common good, is one major reason why the U.S. government, hamstrung for decades by Republican power, isn’t better equipped to handle a crisis.

This isn’t just a Trump problem. This is a widespread Republican problem. For decades, GOP strategy has been consistent: Whenever they get power, they slash regulations and gut spending, with the goal of making government less effective. This is a deliberate strategy to make the public broadly distrustful of government, and therefore increasingly open to shifting more and more power to the wealthy individuals who control the private sector.

Cartnoon

An ek hornbeck Production.

I have expressed before my preferences for regularity and order and my expectation my audience shares that, thus my disappointment at not actually being as punctual as I would desire. My Therapist thinks it a manifestation of my obsessive compulsive desire for control over my environment.

I have issues. This, what I’m doing in public right now, qualifies under most Court Rulings as “journaling”. It’s a sign of socialization and means you can expect I won’t behave like Dean Winters. Mostly. I don’t ‘technically’ have to check in with my PO anymore but there are people who still remember Billy, Micky, the Armadillo, and I and you haven’t even heard the good parts because the Statute of Limitations hasn’t expired yet.

Oh, don’t hoard Toilet Paper. Are you going to be adding fiber to your diet? This is not a Hurricane.

No, it’s not Duckberg either. Toilet Paper is good for about anything you need paper for except writing on and it can also wipe your ass. Paper Towels are about the same only they’re kind of scratchy.

The Breakfast Club (Liberty Endangered)

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

This Day in History

My Lai Massacre in Vietnam; Terry Anderson abducted; First successful liquid-fuel rocket launch; Jerry Lewis born.

Breakfast Tunes

Something to Think about over Coffee Prozac

Liberty may be endangered by the abuse of liberty, but also by the abuse of power.

James Madison

Continue reading

Limit Down

Again.

Frankly there’s not much reason to be Bullish. Almost every place you’d want to go is closed.

I don’t think that condition can persist indefinitely but the attitudinal effects are very real though I must say it’s a true thing that you’re more likely to die of Flu than Corona. Don’t get me wrong, Flu has a huge head start and sensible behavior (some people call it social distancing but personal space works for me and I keep my hands in my pockets) has always been recommended for at risk populations.

What will happen? Futures are limit down closed, have been since 6 pm yesterday (shortly after opening), so a quick halt.

After that? The Fed has announced target rate cuts. Meaningless, only thing propping them up was adherence to counter-factual faith-based dogma. Watch. Not only will they drop like a stone proving the only thing supporting them was the Fed, but it won’t make a scrap of difference because the effective rate was already zero!

What may be more meaningful are the Market actions called QE 4 which you may be forgiven mistaking for a Plague riddled Ship refused harbor, drifting aimlessly until all are dead.

It’s slightly less hopeless than that though still fundamentally misguided, the idea is to pour another Trillion or so into banks and hope that makes everyone feel happy. It may have some short term effects in terms of easing the rate of decline for certain assets. The real problem is the Economy was already crap and now nobody is working and buying stuff because they’re all afraid they’re going to die.

Which is entirely rational. Everybody does. Eventually. That 14 Billion Years to the Heat Death of the Universe is not a joke any more than Zombies are.

Anyway, I just want to reassure you that things are not radically worse today, they were always bad.

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program
by Steve Liesman, CNBC
Sun, Mar 15 2020

The Federal Reserve, saying “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States,” cut interest rates to essentially zero on Sunday and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program to shelter the economy from the effects of the virus.

The new fed funds rate, used as a benchmark both for short-term lending for financial institutions and as a peg to many consumer rates, will now be targeted at 0% to 0.25% down from a previous target range of 1% to 1.25%.

Facing highly disrupted financial markets, the Fed also slashed the rate of emergency lending at the discount window for banks by 125 basis points to 0.25%, and lengthened the term of loans to 90 days.

Despite the aggressive move, the market’s initial response was negative. Dow futures pointed to a decline of some 1,000 points at the Wall Street open Monday morning.

The discount window “plays an important role in supporting the liquidity and stability of the banking system and the effective implementation of monetary policy … [and] supports the smooth flow of credit to households and businesses,” a separate Fed note said.

The discount window is part of the Fed’s function as the “lender of last resort” to the banking industry. Institutions can use the window for liquidity needs, though some are reluctant to do as it can indicate they are experiencing financial issues and thus sends a bad message.

The Fed also cut reserve requirements for thousands of banks to zero. In addition, in a global coordinated move by centrals banks, the Fed said the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank took action to enhance dollar liquidity around the world through existing dollar swap arrangements.

The banks lowered the rate on these swap line loans and extended the period for such loans. The actions by the Fed appeared to be the largest single day set of moves the bank had ever taken, mirroring in many ways its efforts during the financial crisis that were rolled out over several months. Sunday’s move includes multiple programs, rate cuts and QE, but all in a single day.

At a press conference Sunday evening following the decision, Powell said the Fed would be patient before lifting rates again.

“We will maintain the rate at this level until we’re confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals,” Powell said.

“That’s the test … some things have to happen before we consider … we’re going to be watching, and willing to be patient, certainly,” he added.

The quantitative easing will take the form of $500 billion of Treasurys and $200 billion of agency-backed mortgage securities. The Fed said the purchases will begin Monday with a $40 billion installment.

The Fed added in its statement that it “is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

It appeared, though it was not entirely clear, that the meeting that took place will replace the regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The move follows several actions by the Fed over the past two weeks in which it enacted a 50 basis point emergency rate cut and expanded the overnight credit offering, or repo, for the financial system up to $1.5 trillion.

Democratic Presidential Debate 2020: Biden V. Sanders

The Democratic field for presidential candidates has been winnowed down to two: former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Tonightis the first Democratic debate that will be one on one with the two septuagenarian white men. The debate was moved from Phoenix, Arizona to Washington DC and there will be no audience due to an abundance of caution in the midst of a pandemic. The two candidates will stand six feet apart and will greet each other by tapping elbows.

No one is paying attention to Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-OH) who has won only two delegates from American Somoa. She will not be on the debate stage tonight.

The debate begins at 8 PM ET on CNN. There is no live video.

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