I’ll point out ceremonial burial is one of the critical must have skills to advance in Sid Meier’s Civilization.

Weird Sister

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

Martin Luther leads start of Protestant Reformation; President Lyndon B. Johnson halts U.S. bombing of North Vietnam; India’s Prime Minister Indira Gandhi assassinated; Magician Harry Houdini dies.

To light a candle is to cast a shadow.

Ursula K. Le Guin

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and Monster, Chiller, Horror Theater. Ooh, scary.

You remember Nouriel Roubini, the Economist who predicted the Great Recession (Krugman recognized it once it was here)? Well he was just at the Annual meeting of the IMF and he’s very pessimistic.

When recession comes, expect central banks to rewrite the rules
by Nouriel Roubini, The Guardian
Tue 29 Oct 2019

(F)inancial markets have been reacting positively to the reduction of global tail risks and a further easing of monetary policy by major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the People’s Bank of China. Yet it is still only a matter of time before some shock triggers a new recession, possibly followed by a financial crisis, owing to the large build-up of public and private debt globally.

What will policymakers do when that happens? One increasingly popular view is that they will find themselves low on ammunition. Budget deficits and public debts are already high around the world, and monetary policy is reaching its limits. Japan, the eurozone, and a few other smaller advanced economies already have negative policy rates, and are still conducting quantitative and credit easing. Even the Fed is cutting rates and implementing a backdoor QE programme, through its backstopping of repo (short-term borrowing) markets.

But it is naive to think that policymakers would simply allow a wave of “creative destruction” that liquidates every zombie firm, bank, and sovereign entity. They will be under intense political pressure to prevent a full-scale depression and the onset of deflation. If anything, then, another downturn will invite even more “crazy” and unconventional policies than what we’ve seen thus far.

In fact, views from across the ideological spectrum are converging on the notion that a semi-permanent monetisation of larger fiscal deficits will be unavoidable – and even desirable – in the next downturn. Left-wing proponents of so-called modern monetary theory argue that larger permanent fiscal deficits are sustainable when monetised during periods of economic slack, because there is no risk of runaway inflation.

Following this logic, in the UK, the Labour party has proposed a “People’s QE (Quantitative Easing, unconventiona liquidity generation),” whereby the central bank would print money to finance direct fiscal transfers to households rather than to bankers and investors. Others, including mainstream economists such as Adair Turner, the former chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority, have called for “helicopter drops”: direct cash transfers to consumers through central-bank-financed fiscal deficits. Still others, such as former Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer and his colleagues at BlackRock, have proposed a “standing emergency fiscal facility”, which would allow the central bank to finance large fiscal deficits in the event of a deep recession.

Despite differences in terminology, all of these proposals are variants of the same idea: large fiscal deficits monetised by central banks should be used to stimulate aggregate demand in the event of the next slump. To understand what this future might look like, we need only look to Japan, where the central bank is effectively financing the country’s large fiscal deficits and monetising its high debt-to-GDP ratio by maintaining a negative policy rate, conducing large-scale QE, and pursuing a 10-year government bond yield target of 0%.

Will such policies actually be effective in stopping and reversing the next slump? In the case of the 2008 financial crisis, which was triggered by a negative aggregate demand shock and a credit crunch on illiquid but solvent agents, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus and private-sector bailouts made sense. But what if the next recession is triggered by a permanent negative supply shock that produces stagflation (slower growth and rising inflation)? That, after all, is the risk posed by a decoupling of US-China trade, Brexit or persistent upward pressure on oil prices.

Fiscal and monetary loosening is not an appropriate response to a permanent supply shock. Policy easing in response to the oil shocks of the 1970s resulted in double-digit inflation and a sharp, risky increase in public debt. Moreover, if a downturn renders some corporations, banks, or sovereign entities insolvent – not just illiquid – it makes no sense to keep them alive. In these cases, a bail-in of creditors (debt restructuring and write-offs) is more appropriate than a “zombifying” bailout.

In short, a semi-permanent monetisation of fiscal deficits in the event of another downturn may or may not be the appropriate policy response. It all depends on the nature of the shock. But, because policymakers will be pressured to do something, “crazy” policy responses will become a foregone conclusion. The question is whether they will do more harm than good over the long term.

Ok, so I was wrong about Jenny Nicholson. I was right about traveling.

Spider Reviews

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

‘War of the Worlds’ spooks Americans on Halloween Eve; A deadly mudslide hits Nicaragua after Hurricane Mitch; Muhammad Ali beats George Foreman in the ‘Rumble in the Jungle’; Comedian Steve Allen dies.

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.

John Adams

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Among other negative auguries for Republican prospects in 2020 is the fact that the economy is slowing down in critical areas. Already twice as much has been spent on mitigating the effects of a foolishly belligerent Trade Policy as were spent to prop up the Automakers during the Great Recession. The signature stimulus program, the $ Trillion Billionaire’s Tax Cut has produced no stimulus and the Manufacturing sector is contracting. Inverted Yield Curves are making Capital Investment for anything but speculation uncertain.

Worst of all as far as they’re concerned is it shows up as Lunch Bucket Issues that impact in a negative fashion the very voters they wish to court. Paul Waldman documents 2 stories that illustrate the problem.

Can Democrats take advantage of Trump’s most vivid broken promise?
By Paul Waldman, Washington Post
October 29, 201

You’ll recall that during the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton caused a huge controversy when she said that “we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business,” despite the fact that she followed that by saying we “don’t want to forget” the people who “labored in those mines for generations, losing their health, often losing their lives to turn on our lights and power our factories.”

Trump, in contrast, put on a helmet, did his pursed lips thing (which is how he imitates a blue-collar person) while pantomiming digging coal, and said, “For those miners, get ready because you’re going to be working your asses off.”

He wasn’t lying, not exactly. He really did want to revive coal. So when Robert Murray, the head of Murray Energy, literally walked into the Energy Department at the beginning of Trump’s tenure and gave them marching orders, an “action plan” to gut environmental regulations and prop up the coal industry, they dutifully followed it.

The problem was that Trump couldn’t stop the forces — primarily automation and competition from both renewables and natural gas — that have steadily eaten away at the coal industry. Today, there are only 53,000 coal miners left in America, or approximately the number of people who work for Texas Roadhouse restaurants.

So what will Trump leave America’s coal communities with? They won’t see the jobs come back, and there will be no plan to help those communities transition to a different kind of economy. But they will get dirtier land, air and water. Many now fear that as part of Murray Energy’s bankruptcy, the company will be looking to shed its pension and health care obligations to its retired workers.
…
Among the Trump administration’s aggressive deregulatory initiatives has been an attempt to destroy the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which has been led by Mick Mulvaney, just one of his many jobs. It was kind of like putting Al Capone in charge of the D.A.’s office; last year Mulvaney told a convention of bankers, “I won’t talk too much about regulation by enforcement, but the short version is we’re not doing it anymore.”

The CFPB is the bureau that regulates payday lenders, to make sure they aren’t exploiting people with few other options by charging them usurious interest rates and drowning them in loans they can’t repay. At least that used to be what the CFPB did.

If we step back and look at these two stories together, we see a picture of a president who made promises to struggling communities that he couldn’t possibly keep, then got into office and proceeded to screw over ordinary people by doing the bidding of corporations, particularly those that opened up their wallets for him.

That happens to be the critique at least some of the Democratic candidates for president are making of Trump, a critique that has the benefit of being true.

In 2016, Clinton told that kind of story only sporadically, in a campaign in which she seemed to never be sure just how to attack Trump. What she seemed not to realize is that as personally appalling as he is, this argument — that Trump is not just corrupt but corrupt in ways that advantage the wealthy and hurt everyone else — may be the most potent weapon against him.

And it’s one that works pretty much whenever Democrats use it. You don’t need to do a lot of explaining to convince voters that Republicans are the party of the wealthy and powerful, because that’s exactly what they are and have been for a long time. You just need to remind people. The Trump administration is only too happy to supply the evidence.

As usual the situation in Old Blighty is extremely confused but it it appears there are certain developments worthy of report.

First of all the EU has agreed to accept Johnson’s unsigned official request for an extension and ignore his passionately signed “I didn’t really mean it letter”, so England has until the end of January to get its act together. I don’t imagine we’ll actually be lucky enough for Boris to crawl off and die in a ditch.

What is that act? Funny you should ask.

The situation now conforms with the conditions Jeremy Corbin set in order for Labour to agree to Snap Elections which is to say that a crash ‘No Deal’ Brexit on Halloween is definitively ruled out. Negotiations are under way to set a date, but the calendar dictates that it must be sometime between Thanksgiving and ekstmas (Britain doesn’t celebrate Thanksgiving on the same schedule we do). Interestingly enough this is the same time frame the House Impeachment vote is planned to take place though with late breaking new crimes and all it might slip a bit.

Speculation is that Labour is reluctant to stand because they’re not polling very well at the moment. They are calling for a Parliamentary vote on a Second Brexit Referendum which is not at all the same thing as a Second Brexit Referendum which the Liberal Democrats (neither very liberal except Neo nor democratic except how they roll over for Conservatives) have made their signature issue in hopes of capturing the Remain vote. The existential worry of Labour is that the Lib Dems and Tory Brexit Rebels will form a coallation government behind which the Brexit Rebels will boot Johnson and his merry band of Brexiteers, re-organize the Conservatives, and persue the grinding austerity policies the very, very rich use to beat down the poor.

Scotland has always wanted to leave the UK (I mean Sacking of Berwick 1296 always) and are likely to attempt it, as are the re-organized Tories to offer it as a bribe both for Parliamentary support and because if successful it permanently rips out about a third of Labours heartland. The Democratic Unionists will not settle for any border between Northern Ireland and the UK and Ireland will not accept any border between itself and Norther Ireland. It’s a puzzle that hasn’t changed and won’t until the DUPs votes no longer become relevant at which point, “Hello border with Northern Ireland.”

Nobody else counts.

The date quibbling is because some dates (December 9th) make bringing back Johnson’s Plan impossible, oddly enough December 12th leaves an opening. Schools break for the Holidays on the 12th which makes hunting down Labour votes more difficult. None of the other Parties care so it looks like the 12th it is.

Jenny Nicholson- Top 10 HallowSCREAM BOOvies GHOSTalgic Watchlist

That does it for Jenny Nicholson for this season. Tomorrow is a travel day so posting might be light or non-existent.

Welcome to The Breakfast Club! We’re a disorganized group of rebel lefties who hang out and chat if and when we’re not too hungover we’ve been bailed out we’re not too exhausted from last night’s (CENSORED) the caffeine kicks in. Join us every weekday morning at 9am (ET) and weekend morning at 10:00am (ET) (or whenever we get around to it) to talk about current news and our boring lives and to make fun of LaEscapee! If we are ever running late, it’s PhilJD’s fault.

‘Black Tuesday’ on Wall St. as the Great Depression begins; Osama bin Laden admits ordering the Sept. 11th attacks; Suez crisis heats up Mideast; McKinley assassin executed; John Glenn returns to space.

Civility is not not saying negative or harsh things. It is not the absence of critical analysis. It is the manner in which we are sharing this territorial freedom of political discussion. If our discourse is yelled and screamed and interrupted and patronized, that’s uncivil.

Richard Dreyfuss

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