Feb 20 2008

Congressional races round 2: California

Here’s part three of the second round of congressional races.

California has 53 representatives: 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans

Filing deadline March 7; primary June 3

District: CA-01

Location Northern coast of CA, bordering OR, and going inland to include suburbs of Sacramento

Representative Mike Thompson (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 66-29

2004 margin 67-28 (remainder Green)

Bush margin 2004 38-60

Notes on opponents Neither was well funded

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 47th lowest percentage Black of any district (1.9% Black)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-02

Location The 2nd roughly parallels the first, but is inland, but not on the NV border, includes Yreka and Chico

Representative Wally Herger (R)

First elected 1986

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents In 2006, Sekhon raised $150K to Herger’s $711K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 42nd lowest percentage Black (1.2%); 48th most veterans (15.7%)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-03

Location One of the many oddly shaped CA districts, this one loops around Sacramento, and then runs west to the NV border

Representative Dan Lungren (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Durston raised $300K to Lungren’s $600K

Current opponents Bill Durston and a Libertarian

Demographics 49th most veterans (15.7%);

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-04

Location North western CA, bordering OR and (mostly) NV

Representative  John Doolittle (R) retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 49-46

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Charlie Brown raised $1.6 million (against Doolittle’s $2.4 million)

Current opponents Charlie Brown

Demographics 27th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment Ordinarily, an open seat is easier than running against a Republican. This may be an exception – Doolittle was just so bad.  OTOH, the high number of veterans may make this a better year than most for Democrats in this district, and Brown now has name recognition….. Possible

District: CA-05

Location Sacramento and some suburbs

Representative Doris Matsui (D)

First elected 2005

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Notes on opponents Neither opponent raised money

Current opponents Paul Smith

Demographics One of the few district that has high number of Blacks (14.4%, 106th place), Latinos (20.8%, 75th place), and non-white, non-Black, non-Latinos (21.4%, 13th place).  Only 13 districts have more than 10% of each of these groups (the district that is the ‘most’ this way is TX09).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-06

Location Coastal CA north of San Francisco

Representative Lynn Woolsey (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 28-70

Notes on opponents Neither raised money.  Never had a close race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $59K, 43rd place) and very Democratic (Cook PVI D+21, 45th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-07

Location Starting NE of San Francisco and continuing NE to Vacaville and east to Pittsburg (no, not the one in PA!) also including El Cerrito and San Pablo

Representative  George Miller (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 84-16 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 76-24

Bush margin 2004 32-67

Notes on opponents the 2004 opponent had no money.  No close race since 1974

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 70th fewest Whites (43.2%), with large numbers of Latinos (21.4%, rank = 69), Blacks (16.8%, rank = 95), and others (18.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-08

Location San Francisco

Representative Nancy Pelosi (D)

First elected   1987

2006 margin 80-11

2004 margin 83-12

Bush margin 2004 14-85

Notes on opponents Amazingly, the 2006 opponent raised $150K and got only 19,000 votes. Pelosi hasn’t been under 75% since her first race

Current opponents Dana Walsh

Demographics Fewer veterans than all but 24 districts (6.8%), and more people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White than all but 14 districts. Also the 18th most Democratic district per Cook PVI

Assessment  Vulnerable.  Ha!  Just seeing if you were paying attention.  Safe.

District: CA-09

Location Oakland and Berkeley and some eastern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative Barbara Lee (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 86-11

2004 margin 85-12

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bermudez raised almost $500K.  She got 31,000 votes.  

Current opponents John den Dulk

Demographics Like the 5th, but more so.  35% White (57th lowest), 26% Black (rank = 61), 19% Latino (83rd place), also 15.4% Asian (rank NA). Only 5 districts are more Democratic – and 4 of those are in NY.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-10

Location Eastern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative Ellen Tauscher (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent raised $150K; the 2006 opponent raised $7K. They got the same votes

Current opponents Nicholas Gerber

Demographics The 23rd wealthiest district (median income = $65K), it also has a large number of minorities.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-11

Location Central Valley, east of San Francisco

Representative Jerry McNerney

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, McNerney ousted the odious Richard Pombo; Jerry spent $2.4 million, Pombo spent $4.6 million

Current opponents Dean Andal has declared, others are considering it

Demographics Quite similar to the 10th, with a lot of wealth (median income = $62K) and a lot of Latinos (19.7%, rank = 80).  

Assessment One of the few competitive districts in CA. McNerney will probably have a challenge.  His website is here .

District: CA-12

Location Southern suburbs of San Francisco

Representative currently vacant following death of Tom Lantos.  I don’t know when the special election will be.

First elected  NA

2006 margin Lantos won 76-24

2004 margin Lantos won 68-21

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None announced, nor any Democrats yet

Demographics 14th wealthiest CD (median income = $70K) with 33.6% people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White (rank = 13); 28.5% Asian.

Assessment Probably safe for Democrats.

District: CA-13

Location The eastern shore of San Francisco Bay

Representative Pete Stark (D)

First elected  1972

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 72-24

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Quite similar to the 12th

Assessment Safe.  Stark is one of the most outspoken liberals in the House.  Go Pete! Tell it like it is. Someone has to!

District: CA-14

Location Coastal CA south of San Francisco, including Menlo Park and Palo Alto

Representative Anna Eshoo (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin 70-27

Bush margin 2004 33-68

Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Third wealthiest district (only NJ11 and VA11 are higher median income), also 17th highest percentage of non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-15

Location A long, narrow district running north-south, from Santa Clara to Gilroy

Representative Mike Honda (D)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Each recent one raised about $50K.  

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another wealthy (median income = $75K) district with lots of minorities (29.2% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-16

Location San Jose and south of San Jose to San Martin

Representative Zoe Lofgren (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Neither recent one raised any money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Very similar to th 15th.  The 8th most non-Latino, non-Black, non-Whites of any district; 6th most outside Hawaii.  

Assessment Safe

District: CA-17

Location Coastal California from Santa Cruz south to Monterrey and beyond

Representative Sam Farr (D)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 67-29

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent, Mark Risley, raised over $100K, Farr raised about $600K and won easily

Current opponents  Jeff Taylor

Demographics The 31st most Latinos of any district (42.9%)

Assessment Safe.  Farr has quietly worked on district issues, while being solidly liberal on national ones

District: CA-18

Location Central Valley

Representative Dennis Cardoza (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 68-33

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent raised over $100K, but it did him little good.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the above districts, the 18th has a lot of Latinos (41.9%, 33rd). Unlike them, it is quite poor (median income = $34K, 84th lowest).

Assessment Safe.  Cardoza is relatively centrist, and wins easily in this swing district.

District: CA-19

Location If there is a middle of CA, this is it

Representative George Radonovich (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 66-27

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents The 2006 opponent, TJ Cox, raised almost $900K to Radonovich’s $1.1 million.  

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with lots of Latinos (28.2%, rank = 55)

Assessment It looks like a long shot, but Radanovich has played fast and loose with some rules.  In 2004, he may have violated campaign finance laws, and he is increasing violation of his pledge to serve only 10 years.  If we can get a strong Latino candidate, it may get interesting.

District: CA-20

Location More of the Central Valley

Representative Jim Costa (D)

First elected 2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 53-47

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents His 2004 opponent raised about $1 million.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 25th fewest Whites of any district (21.4%), and 13th most Latinos (63.1%)

Assessment A moderate Democrat in a swing district, Costa seems relatively safe, but this is one of the few California districts that might get competitive

District: CA-21

Location Porterville and north of Porterville in the Central Valley

Representative Devin Nunes (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents Steven Haze, in 2006, raised over $100K to Nunes’ $1 million

Current opponents None declared; Haze has withdrawn.

Demographics Similar to the other Central Valley districts

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-22

Location Runs east-west, the southern edge of the Central Valley

Representative Kevin McCarthy (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Notes on opponents Beery, in 2006, raised no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on variables I track

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-23

Location A weird, long, skinny strip along the coast from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, not really contiguous, plus a couple islands.

Representative Lois Capps (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 40-58

Notes on opponents each recent opponent raised about $100K

Current opponents Don Regan

Demographics Another district with a lot of Latinos (41.7%, rank = 34)

Assessment Safe.  Don Regan lost to Capps in 2004

District: CA-24

Location Just interior to most of CA-23

Representative Elton Gallegly (R)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 63-34

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Martinez raised $131K and in 2004 Wagmer raosed $207K

Current opponents

1. Jill Martinez

2. Chip Fraser

3. Elliot Maggin

and some Republicans

Demographics The 35th wealthiest district (median income = $68K).

Assessment Gallegly has had a couple close races (in 2000 and in 1992) and, if this is a big Democratic year, this could be competitive

District: CA-25

Location

Representative Buck McKeon

First elected 1992

2006 margin 60-36

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Rodriguez raised $230K to McKeon’s $1.4 million

Current opponents Jacquese Conaway

Demographics 56th most Latinos (27.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-26

Location Northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles, east to Upland and Rancho Cucamunga

Representative David Dreier

First elected  1980

2006 margin 57-38

2004 margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Neither of his recent opponents raised more than about $25K

Current opponents Russ Warner

Demographics A fairly wealthy district (median income = 59K, rank = 44) with a lot of Asians (15.2%)

Assessment Dreier is vulnerable.  His recent opponents raised no money and still held him under 60%.  The DCCC is targeting him, and this is one of the few California Republican districts that has a good chance to go blue.  Warner looks like a good guy, too.

District: CA-27

Location Shaped like an upside-down U, the middle of the U is CA-28.  This is north of Beverly Hills, and includes Northridge and Reseda

Representative Brad Sherman (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Notes on opponents neither raised much money.  Sherman’s first elections were close, but that was a decade ago.

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with a lot of Asians (10.5%) and Latinos (36.5%, rank = 38).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-28

Location San Fernando valley, including Van Nuys. The 28th is shaped like an upside-down T

Representative Howard Berman (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 74-19

2004 margin 71-23

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents neither raised money.  Berman has been over 66% in every election since 1996

Current opponents No declared Republicans, one Green

Demographics Fewer veterans (5.9%) than all but 13 districts.  Fewer Whites (31.4%) than all but 47 districts. More Latinos (55.6%) than all but 21.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-29

Location Another oddly shaped district, shaped sort of like a number 7, with two antennae coming out of the top.

Representative Adam Schiff (D)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 63-27

2004 margin 65-30

Bush margin 2004 37-61

Notes on opponents In 2004, Henry Scolinos raised $600K to Schiff’s $1.0 million.  Schiff has gotten nearly identical percentages in every race since his first

Current opponents Charles Hahn

Demographics More non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos than any but 5 districts (23.7% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-30

Location Coastal California, Beverly Hills to Malibu

Representative Henry Waxman

First elected  1974

2006 margin 71-26

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Notes on opponents In 2004, Victor Elizalde raised $262K to Waxman’s $455K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Wealthy (median income = 61K, rank = 44), lots of Asians (8.8%), few veterans (8.3%, rank = 41).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-31

Location Yet another oddly shaped district, something like a W on its side, centered on Hollywood

Representative Xavier Becerra (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 22-77

Notes on opponents Vega in 2004 did not raise much.  No close race since his first

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer veterans than any other district (3.7%), fewer Whites (9.8%) than any except NY16, more Latinos (70.2%) than any but 5 districts. More Democratic (per Cook PVI) than any but 32.

Assessment Safe.

District: CA-32

Location Yes, it’s another oddly shaped district, it’s shaped a little like NY State, in the northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles.  

Representative Hilda Solis (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 85-15 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents neither raised money. Never had a close race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the 31st, but not quite as extreme.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-33

Location This one is shaped sort of like a teakettle in Los Angeles.  This is one of the smallest districts in the US (just 48 square miles).

Representative Diane Watson

First elected  2001

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 89-11 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 16-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents David Crowley, and a primary opponent who lost to Watson in 2006 by 91%-9%

Demographics Relatively poor (median income = $32K, 46th lowest), with many minorities (29.9% Black, rank = 37; 34.6% Latino, rank = 33) and very Democratic (Cook PVI = D+36, rank = 7)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-34

Location Los Angeles, centering on Broadway

Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 74-26

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents neither raised money. Roybal-Allard has had no close races

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer Whites than any but 3 districts; more Latinos than any but 3 districts (TX15,16 and 28) and lower median income ($30K) than any but 24 districts.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-35

Location Los Angeles, including Gardena, South Central, and Inglewood

Representative Maxine Waters (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 84-8-8 (against two minor parties)

2004 margin 81-15

Bush margin 2004 20-79

Notes on opponents No money.  No close elections

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd fewest Whites (10.4%), 32nd most Blacks (34.1%) and 26 most Latinos (47.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-36

Location Los Angeles along Santa Monica Bay and the Pacific

Representative Jane Harman (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised much.  No close elections since 2000.  Harman was also in Congress from 1992-1998, with very close elections each time

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 27th most non-Blacks, non-Whites, non-Latinos

Assessment Safe

District: CA-37

Location Long Beach

Representative Laura Richardson (D)

First elected  2007

2006 margin NA (she won her 2007 race 67-25, with almost no one voting – a total of about 21,000 people)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Similar to the other Los Angeles districts

Assessment Maybe a primary, but safe for Democrats

District: CA-38

Location Another weirdly shaped district, shaped sort of like a 7 on it’s side, with the middle of the 7 in East Los Angeles, then extending south about 8 miles to Norwalk, and east about 20 miles to Pomona

Representative  Grace Napolitano (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Notes on opponents No money.  Never had a close race

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Again, similar to those above

Assessment Safe

District: CA-39

Location Horseshoe shaped district including Whittier, Cerritos and Lynwood

Representative Linda Sanchez (D)

First elected   2002

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 61=39

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents Tim Escobar, in 2004, raised $750 K, almost identical to what Sanchez raised

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st fewest Whites (21%), 18th most Latinos (61.2%), modest income (median = $45K, 153rd place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-40

Location An inverted horseshoe, it caps CA47 and includes Cypress, Fullerton and Orange

Representative Ed Royce (R)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hoffman raised $140K, Royce got 10 times that

Current opponents :

1. Florice Hoffman, the 2006 opponent (although her website is down)

2. Christina Avalos (note to the web savvy – she looks like a good candidate, but her website could use some help)

Demographics Demographically, hard to distinguish from the Democratic districts in the area

Assessment A long shot, but Avalos might bring in more of the many Latinos in the district

District: CA-41

Location A wedge shaped district, running east-west. In the west, it includes Redlands, Highland and Yucalpa (the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin) and runs west through desert to the border of AZ and NV

Representative Jerry Lewis (R)

First elected 1978

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents :

1. Rita Ramirez-Dean

2. Tim Prince

3. Louis Contreras

4. Patrick Meagher

Demographics Lots of veterans (16.1%, 39th place)

Assessment There were rumors Lewis would retire, but he is apparently running.  This is a Republican district, but Lewis is a crook, connected with Duke Cunningham and other crooks.  Who knows?

District: CA-42

Location A funnel shaped district, with the top running from La Habita to Chino, and the point in Mission Viejo

Representative Gary Miller (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents Recent opponent had no money; Miller’s winning margins have been growing

Current opponents :

1. Ron Shepston who blogs at Daily Kos under the name CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream.  YES WE CAN (where have I heard that?)

2. Ed Chau

Demographics 13th wealthiest district (median income = $70K), with a large Asian population (15.9%)

Assessment Another Republican district, but Miller may also be a crook: He seems fond of claiming that his land was taken under eminent domain, and thus dodging taxes, and is under FBI investigation. He also uses his staff to run his personal errands…..uh oh.

District: CA-43

Location Runs east-west from Ontario to San Bernadino

Representative Joe Baca (D)

First elected  1999

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money

Current opponents Scott Folkens (a Republican) and possibly a couple Democrats in a primary (see the Wiki)

Demographics Similar to many of the California districts: Lots of Latinos, few veterans, few Whites.

Assessment Safe for Democrats; Baca is fairly centrist, so the primaries might be worth looking at

District: CA-44

Location runs NE to SW, with the northeasternmost city being Riverside, and the southwesternmost being San Clemente

Representative Ken Calvert (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Notes on opponents Louis Vandenberg ran both times, neither time did he raise money

Current opponents :

1. Louis Vandeberg

2. Bill Hedrick

3. Regilio Morales

Demographics Another district with many Latinos (35.0%)

Assessment A Southern California Republican.  Ethical and legal troubles.  Calvert also has ties to Duke Cunningham. He was also found in a car with a prostitute, with her head in his lap, and both of them partially unclad.  He said they were just talking.  hmmmm. Where are his ears?  

District: CA-45

Location A long narrow district running east west near the southern end of CA, from Moreno Valley in the west to the AZ border

Representative Mary Bono (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Notes on opponents David Roth, in 2006, raised $722K, Bono raised about double that

Current opponents :

1. Paul Clay (another website that could use some help)

2.  David Hunsicker (no site)

Demographics Also heavily Latino (38.0%, rank = 35)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-46

Location Coastal CA including Long Beach and Costa Mesa, and some islands

Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-33

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents Jim Brandt ran twice and neither time did he raise $100K

Current opponents Debbie Cook

Demographics Another wealthy district (median income = $62K, rank = 34) with a lot of Asians (15.4%)

Assessment Another Southern California Republican with ethics problems – he’s tied to Abramoff.  Still, this is a Republican district.  

District: CA-47

Location East of the 46th and south of the 40th (both Republican) is the 48th (which is Democratic). It runs north-south, including Anaheim and Santa Ana

Representative Loretta Sanchez (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents Both Nguyen (2006) and Coronado (2004) were relatively well funded. In 1996, Sanchez pulled off a great upset, beating Robert Dornan by 984 votes

Current opponents Dina Biederman  

Demographics More Latinos (65.3%) than all but 11 districts, also 13.9% Asian.  Fewer Whites (17.3%) than all but 10 districts, fewer veterans (5.2%) than all but 9.

Assessment  Should be safe

District: CA-48

Location Coastal California from Newport Beach south to Laguna Niguel.

Representative John Campbell (R)

First elected  2005

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 58-40

Notes on opponents In 2006, Steve Young raised $400 K, Campbell 5 times that

Current opponents Steve Young again.

Demographics The 15th wealthiest district (median income = $70K)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-49

Location A V shaped district, running from Oceanside (on the coast) to Parris and into San Diego county

Representative Darrell Issa

First elected  2000

2006 margin 63-33

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised more than $100K

Current opponents Robert Hamilton

Demographics Another heavily Latino district (29.5%, 52nd place)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-50

Location Coastal California from Carlsbad south to Solana Beach and a little beyond, and inland to Escondido, surrounding San Diego.

Representative Brian Billbray (R)

First elected  2006, but was in House 1994-2000

2006 margin 53-43

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents In 2006, this must have been one of the most expensive races (I haven’t recorded these data).  Billbray spent $2.6 million, his challenger Francine Busby, spent almost a million more than that

Current opponents Nick Leibham

Demographics Relative wealthy (median income = $59K, 40th place).

Assessment A long shot.  

District: CA-51

Location The southwest corner of CA, bordering Mexico and AZ

Representative Bob Filner (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 62-35

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents Each raised about $100 K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd most Latinos (53.2%), 23rd fewest Whites (21.3%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: CA-52

Location An L shaped district, running from the San Diego suburbs east and then north through mountains and desert

Representative Duncan Hunter (R) retiring

First elected  1980

2006 margin 65-32

2004 margin 69-28

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised $100K

Current opponents

1. Mike Lumpkin

2. Jim Hester

3. Vicki Butcher

and a bunch of Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment It’s a fairly Republican district, but in a Democratic year, who knows?

District: CA-53

Location Central San Diego, and some suburbs

Representative Susan Davis (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 66-29

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised a bit under $100K

Current opponents Delicia Holt

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

Feb 20 2008

Guerrilla Media Warfare.

( – promoted by buhdydharma )

I want to start off by stating something obvious.  The corporate media has a massive amount of power when it comes to information access.  Until the internet became popular, we had no effective alternative form of mass communication and information distribution.  But with widespread access to the internet (or at least widespread enough) came new tools for spreading information.  One of those tools is the blog, which has become one of the most popular methods of sharing information.

Unfortunately, the blog is a “pull” medium.  By that I mean the only people who read a blog are those who’ve heard about it elsewhere.  And even if you have heard about it, you have to go searching it out, which can be a chore for the less technically savvy.  The vast majority of blogs are small fish in an interstellar ocean.  Even the big blogs are not well known.  Furthermore, what you read (or hear or watch) on blogs (and other online news sources) often requires following links to further information sources to fully comprehend what was originally posted.  This requires the reader to be willing to take even more time, and so the original article must find a way to pique the interest of the reader.  In other words, the article has to “pull” the reader in and make them want to learn more.  No easy feat.

Traditional media is a “push” medium.  You sit and watch TV or listen to the radio.  The newspaper can be delivered direct to your doorstep.  And what you get is supposed to be trustworthy.  Unbiased.  Truthful.  So you shouldn’t have to think about it.  Just let them tell you what’s going on.  They push their memes into you.  Brainwashing.  (Don’t kid yourself thinking it’s not.)  Day after day after day.  Sometimes even hour after hour, if it’s cable news.  The only way to tune it out is to turn it all off.  But then you have no info at all.

A couple recent essays discuss the problem in more depth.  EENR for Progress: Corporate Media and the Progressive Movement and Wither the Fourth Estate?  I also wrote a diary along similar lines about a year ago.  (Not as well written, and rather rambling, but I think I still made the point.)  My original intent in this essay was to discuss these issues a little further before moving to the potential solution you’re about to read, but I think this is long enough as is.  So instead, I just recommend that you follow those links and read so that you have a clearer understanding of the issues I’m addressing here.  (See!  There’s that blog “pull” I was talking about.)

We cannot get anything changed until there are enough people pushing for it.  We are not enough.  We are too few with too little power compared to the entrenched interests.  But it doesn’t have to be that way.  We can get our message out to the public.  We have the technology.  (We can be better, faster, stronger.  Woops!  Wrong show.)  What we need are the people willing to make it happen.  Our goal should be to gather the public; rally them to our cause.

I mentioned this idea in a comment a week ago, but since it came at the tail end of an essay and toward the end of the day, it probably didn’t get a lot of views.  Despite that, it garnered a few ponies from people I respect here, so I decided to write this essay and expand upon the idea to see if there’s any real interest or if all you want to do is pat me on the head.  Don’t take what I’ve written as the definitive word on how it should be.  Rather, this is where I think it needs to start.

I’m willing to work on it.  Hell, I’m willing to lead the project if that’s what’s needed.  But I can’t do it all myself.  If this is going to work, I need help.  That means if you’re serious about getting our voices heard, it’s time to step up to the plate.  I’m just not going to bother if I can’t get that help.  I’ll try to find something else to focus on, instead.  But I think this is our best means given the situation we’re in right now.

The Basic Premise

Guerrilla news.  We’ll bypass the media and go directly to the people.  We do this by using email and having subscribers print off copies of our newsletter for local distribution.  Stories are short and to the point.  Opinion is fine — in fact, encouraged — so long as there’s fact to back it up.  We’re not going to do “we report and you decide.”  We’re going to tell them in simple terms what’s going on and why it’s wrong or right.  Advocacy.  Think KO’s Special Comments, only really short.  If it takes more than a couple minutes to read, it’s too long.

Specifics:

We’ll use pdf.  That will ensure consistency of layout, and there’s software to view it on the big three OS’s.  It will be four to six pages long.  More than that, and people might not be willing to print out every issue.  We are relying on them to print and distribute.  If we make it difficult or too expensive, our message doesn’t get out, and we fail.  Less than that, and we won’t have enough space to cover issues.  People are going to want more than just one story.  Otherwise, they won’t take us seriously.  It’s a very fine line we’re walking, but we can do it.

Each article should be about half a page in length.  Yes, when I said short, I meant short.  Punch it.  That’s a sentence or two of intro at most.  No long, drawn out analysis.  More like a summary.  You say this is what’s going on; this is how it affects you.  Make it emotional.  Make it personal.  If we don’t do that, we fail.  Get people angry.  Get people excited.  But stay positive.  Because that’s what gets people to act.  And then give them a way to focus that energy.  Give them something they can do to release it.  Make it easy.  Provide resources.  It’s going to take a while to build up.  There’s a lot of inertia to overcome.  But we can do it.

Writers will need to use good grammar (suitable for the style of writing) and no cursing or calling people names.  Bush is not “The Shrub.”  Republicans are not “Rethugs.”  And no acronyms unless you explain what they are.  Don’t assume anyone knows what you’re talking about.  The average person knows as much about politics as I know about sports (which is to say next to nothing).  If you’re having trouble with any of this, that’s fine.  You’re not in this alone.  We’ll be helping each other.  So don’t be intimidated.  If you’ve got something to say, say it as best you can.  We’ll let you know what needs cleaning up.  We can do this.

We’ll need at least one person to act as editor.  The more writers who can also do editing, the better, but the primary editor will have the responsibility of ensuring all writing meets the above requirements, as well as ensuring the entire newsletter is formatted correctly.  We absolutely must look like we’re at least trying to be professional if we’re going to be taken seriously.  If we work together, we can succeed.

We’ll need someone to do layout and design.  You may think it’s frills, but looks are important, and layout will determine ease of reading.  When people see this, they need to be instantly intrigued, and the layout needs to make it easy to just start reading right away.  We also need to place the name of our newsletter and put our website address on there somewhere.  And I’m sure there’s things I’m not familiar with or just forgetting.  I cannot emphasize enough how important this all is, so we need someone willing to work on it.  And whoever takes it up, don’t worry if you feel like you’re in over your head.  We all are.  But we’re going to be working together, so don’t hesitate to ask for help.  We can get this done.

At four to six pages, that’s eight to twelve stories.  How many can we write a day?  Enough to put out an issue?  That would be ideal.  The stories are short, and we need to keep pounding away.  That means we need a lot of writers, because we can’t expect each of us to write a story every day.  If you can, great!  Please do.  But let’s plan for the less than optimal.  So we need a place where writers (anyone) can submit their stories.  It’ll be up to the editor, designer, and whoever else is on the managing team to figure out which ones to use for the newsletter.  And doing this daily helps us stay current.  A week is a long time in politics, now.  We need to stay on top of things if we’re going to be relevant.  It’s not going to be easy, but if we’re willing to put in the effort, we can do this.

Our primary distribution model is through email.  Preferably early in the morning so they have it before they go to work.  Those receiving the email then print off at least one copy and place it somewhere accessible for others to read.  Someplace like a work breakroom or public bulletin board.  This is why the stories need to be short.  Because we’re going to be catching people in the middle of doing other things.  Don’t waste their time.  If the stories are short, they’ll be more willing to pause for a moment to read.

We can set up a way for people to make donations to help with costs.  (I know I can’t afford to do this on my own, and I’m not sure if I can even help pay for anything.  I’m not exactly financially secure.)  However, the primary contribution we’re looking for is local distributors.  People willing to spread the news.  It’ll start slow, of that I have no doubt.  Don’t expect to see much uptake the first few months.  But if we are doing our part right to encourage subscribers to print and distribute, it’ll pick up.

It’s actually pretty simple.  The complexity comes with all the little details that need to be addressed.  I’m sure there are issues I’ve completely missed or just forgot.  I know I’ve left out any mention of a website, and that’s something that needs to be taken care of.  As much as I love DD, I don’t think we can work on this project here.  (Nor should we.  I think it would be a horrible imposition and would essentially be taking over the site.  That’s not cool.)

Recap:

The biggest problem we have with getting anything to change in this country is getting enough people to help support that change.  That requires that they know something needs to be changed in the first place, and then it requires that they be motivated enough to do something to bring about that change.  We have to provide that for them.  We have to tell them what needs fixing and give them the motivation to do their part to fix it.  We can make it easier for them.  This newsletter is how we start doing that.  It’s how we engage people who don’t normally pay attention to politics.  By getting our message out of cyberspace and into meat-space.  It has to be done if we’re to have a chance of success.  We lack the funds to get noticed in traditional media.  We cannot rely on politicians to fix things for us.  It’s up to us.  You and me.  Together.

We can do this.  I’m willing.  Are you?

Feb 20 2008

“…Like She was Raped without Penetration” (Updated)

(upheaval and horror here… – promoted by pfiore8)

The woman who was forcibly strip searched and thrown naked into a cell wanted this to be shown in order to prevent it from ever happening to anyone again. I am assuming that part of the justification for wanting it to be shown is to ask difficult questions; so, I’m thinking of the questions she might want asked as I watch this horrific violation of her rights again. I’m not looking forward to watching this again. In fact, I dread it.


The story may be hard to watch, but the victim and her husband want me to show you what happened – in hopes that you and those you love will never experience a night like this.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

[Update]:

Thanks webranding at Kos for a direct link to this story:

http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_…


She said she felt like she was raped without penetration.

Is this spillover from the Patriot Act? I came across a story where a woman was strip searched at an airport and wrote about it in Music Censorship: An Overview. I’m grasping at straws a little here, but trying to find the legal foundation for this atrocious behavior in this post 9 – 11 world.


Music Censorship: An Overview

What’s the difference between an “unpatriotic” poster and an “unpatriotic” song to the censors? Next, she might be strip-searched in full public view the next time she tried to fly, hypothetically speaking.

To view my justification for my “possible scenario”:

My questions about this continue.

How could this happen to someone who calls 911 for help?

Is accidentally giving the drivers license of one’s deceased sister an automatic cause of suspicion?

Why was she asked “Do you have any weapons or sharp objects?” And, why was she asked, “Have you ever thought of harming yourself?”

Why did the deputies assault her when she said “Now or ever?”

Why in the hell were men in the room forcibly removing her clothes?


She said she wrapped herself in toilet paper to keep warm and to prevent anyone else from seeing her nude. She also said she was denied access to a phone and medical assistance for injuries that included a cracked tooth, a bulging disk, and bruises.

The charges were “disorderly conduct and resisting arrest.”

Well, as Marcellus said,


Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

Let’s focus on the following questions, remembering that she had accidentally given her deceased sister’s license and begged to have it given back after making a 911 call for help: Why was she asked “Do you have any weapons or sharp objects?” And, why was she asked, “Have you ever thought of harming yourself?” Why did the deputies assault her when she said “Now or ever?”

Her saying “Now or ever?” to “Have you ever thought of harming yourself?”  triggered something I think; that was the point of transition.  Perhaps it was a sort of complex question(s) and her answer was taken as the answer to the first question, “Do you have any weapons or sharp objects?”

“Do you have any weapons or sharp objects?”  strikes me as an entrapping question. For example, every household contains kitchen knives; so, anyone could say “Yes” to that question. The question should be, “Do you have any weapons and
sharp objects that you intend to use as weapons?” That, any innocent person could answer with an affirmative “No.” Of course, that would make it more difficult to strip search an innocent woman and throw her unapologetically into a jail cell for all to see, wouldn’t it?

All I can think of to end this, is that if the path to hell is paved with good intentions, how much quicker that path to hell is being trodden after our elected leaders have encouraged torture.

Source

And evidence is mounting that they were. According to the Washington Post, since 2002 leading Democrats lawmakers received “about 30 private CIA briefings, some of which included descriptions of waterboarding, overseas rendition sites, “and other harsh interrogation methods.” Officials present at some of the meetings, told the Post that the reaction from legislators “was not just approval, but encouragement.”

See you in Gitmo.

Feb 20 2008

Pony Party: A Very Merry Unbirthday!

     To me! To me! Now that we all have the theme song from the Mad Hatter’s Unbirthday Party stuck in our heads, you’ll be happy to hear that there’s at least a good reason for it.  Because actually, today really is my birthday. Yes, it’s true — I’m 27 years old. Awww, quit yer snickerin’! Just because I was already 27 once before doesn’t mean I can’t do it again. It was a fun year, and if something is good the first time, what’s the harm in revisiting the good old (but not that old!) days? It’s like an instant replay in sports – only better, because there are no sports involved.  

Okay, now, you’re probably breaking out in a cold sweat just thinking – OMG, A GIFT, I DON’T HAVE A GIFT!!!! No worries!  Just put those platinum cards away! Really, there’s no need to get me a gift. I can’t even think of anything [Aston Martin] I want [Jimmy Choo] or need [Louis Vuitton].

Just kidding! Honestly, I don’t need a single thing. I’m allergic to jewelry (for real!). My car is paid for (and it’ll be celebrating its 21st birthday this summer, so you can buy it a drink then). All my clothes come from vintage stores – known elsewhere as “thrift” shops, but hey, it’s Hollywood – land of embellishment, what do you expect?) And I don’t smoke, drink or do drugs (just high on life!).

        So … aside from being overqualified for the Most Boring Person Ever award, I’m also impossible to buy anything for. But since it’s the thought that counts (right, and this would be on what planet?) here’s a chance to think about giving a virtual gift that probably won’t be forgotten anytime soon. Just visit this week’s un-sponsor – Bad Gift Emporium (http://www.badgiftemporium.com/)- and go nuts! BGE is what I imagine eBay was like when it first started. A few crummy items that people hoped to unload for a couple of bucks. But like all good Pony Party sponsors, BGE doesn’t take itself too seriously. Some of the descriptions are pretty funny (and some are just weird – or both), like (ta da!)

                       Poker Memories Re-enacted By Frogs.

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“My best friend gave me this when I moved abroad as a memento of our weekly poker games. It is hideous but the gesture was so sweet, I have kept it for the past three years (hidden in the basement, away from public view).”

   

    Like so many other cherished gifts, this one is available, if the price is right. A word of warning: the BGE website is sluggish, so you might want to just go find a bad gift elsewhere. It’s not like they’re hard to come by!

     Okay, fun’s over (temporarily). Seriously, if anyone is feeling the least little bit generous, I highly recommend making a donation (no such thing as too small) by clicking on the “Rebuild NOLA” link on the right-hand side of the page . Plus, there’s great information on why and how you can do that in these diaries by kj (https://www.docudharma.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4154) and Nightprowlkitty (https://www.docudharma.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4138). (Apologies to any others I overlooked; please add them in the comments.)    

    If you’re not familiar with New Orleans, don’t understand what all the fuss is about or think Feds are doing an outstanding job on that rebuilding deal in the Gulf (that’s the Gulf in this country, not the other one we’re destroying), you might want to spend some time reading what Gentilly Girl (https://www.docudharma.com/userDiary.do?personId=1183) and Louisiana 1976 (https://www.docudharma.com/userDiary.do?personId=1099) have to say about that. (Full disclosure: Former NOLA resident here, best place in the world, imo.)

    Now back to our regularly scheduled nonsense.    

    Okay, the ball’s in your court. The ponies are pawing through six weeks of homework for tonight’s mid-term. Wish us luck, be excellent to each other and don’t forget – there’s the always informative Front Page and a whole bunch of remarkably coherent Recent and Recommended Diaries, where gifting is totally off the table. Enjoy it while you can because most likely I’m going to milk this birthday thing for all it’s worth!  

Feb 20 2008

Lamestream Media

WBZ TV Boston is now ending it’s “news” with a story about a record deal contest.  “An entertainment event is looming over our heads”.  Ya, I am trying to hold my supper in my stomach.  Surprised the news isn’t sponsored by the satellite emergency hard hat people.

http://people.csail.mit.edu/ra…

Not missed today was the “story” of the impending shoot down of the disabled satellite.  No mention is made as to the lie that the government is concerned about the “safety” of hydrazine, a substance which would never survive the re-entry temperatures this thing will reach as it is incinerated high up in the atmosphere.

The anti-Illuminati people postulate the real concern is about the plutonium reactor that really powers the device or it’s an excuse to test a new missle system’s intecept capacity.

I can add another possibility still.  The story is announced only because it occupies “news” bandwidth.  “News” is available 24/7 and as such there is always something in the store window so to speak.  The news of an ailing piece of space junk would trump/ ie push out of consideration another story about which Satanically inspired piece of “legislation” congress is contemplating.

The premier source of blacklisted American news is of course.

http://www.projectcensored.org/

These are mainstream type stories you might bring up to anyone as long as you don’t use the Illuminati or any number of other codewords designed to click the off switch in the minds of typical,,,well,,,we call them sheeple.

What could they be bandwith pre-empting?  The top two in my mind are.

http://www.afterdowningstreet….

This is the “You Are a Terrorist Bill”.

Or this one.

http://www.washingtonwatch.com…

Far more Satanic than even the last seven years of Bush and the PNAC crowd.  The shifting of memes radically and suddenly, from the radical right to the radical left.  That should most definitively create total havoc.  We can’t end torture, we can’t hold international criminals accountable yet we are going to feed the world?  Yes, let’s accellerate American bankruptcy.  Let’s ignore the loss of reason in every facet of law and focus on yet another thing to end America.

Feb 19 2008

Four at Four

  1. Stop the police state? Don’t look to the Supreme Court for help. The Los Angeles Times reports Supreme Court rejects wiretap suit.

    The Supreme Court today dismissed the first legal challenge to President Bush’s warrantless wiretapping order, but without ruling on any of the key issues…

    The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, a Cold War-era compromise, said the president could order secret wiretapping within the United States, but only with the specific approval of a special court.

    But after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, President Bush issued a secret order to the National Security Agency that authorized it to intercept phone calls or e-mails coming into or going out of this country if there was a “reasonable basis” to believe there was a link to Al Qaeda. More significantly, the NSA did not need the approval of the FISA court to conduct this spying, according to the order.

    When Bush’s order was revealed in 2005, the president defended his decision as necessary for protecting against another attack within the United States. He also argued that the president, as commander in chief of the armed services, had the constitutional authority to act in the national interest, even if a law stood in the way.

    I cannot believe some are still asking if the president above the law. The president is not above the law.

  2. According to the Washington Post, the Unilateral strike is called a model for U.S. operations in Pakistan. On January 29, a CIA Predator aircraft missile attack killed Abu Laith al-Libi, a al-Qaeda commander. “Having requested the Pakistani government’s official permission for such strikes on previous occasions, only to be put off or turned down, this time the U.S. spy agency did not seek approval.” Pakistan “was notified only as the operation was underway”. The U.S. has spent billions of dollars on surveillance equipment in South Asia, but still local, human intelligence leads to this “model” attack. However…

    Some officials also emphasized that such airstrikes have a marginal and temporary impact. And they do not yield the kind of intelligence dividends often associated with the live capture of terrorists — documents, computers, equipment and diaries that could lead to further unraveling the network.

    The officials stressed that despite the occasional tactical success against it, such as the Libi strike, the threat posed by al-Qaeda’s presence in Pakistan has been growing. As a senior U.S. official briefed on the strike said: “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. But overall, we’re in worse shape than we were 18 months ago.”

  3. The New York Times reports Midlife suicide rises, puzzling researchers. There has been “an unusually large increase in suicides among middle-aged Americans in recent years… For officials, it is a surprising and baffling public health mystery. A new five-year analysis of the nation’s death rates recently released by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the suicide rate among 45-to-54-year-olds increased nearly 20 percent from 1999 to 2004, the latest year studied, far outpacing changes in nearly every other age group. (All figures are adjusted for population.) For women 45 to 54, the rate leapt 31 percent… At the moment, the prime suspect is the skyrocketing use – and abuse – of prescription drugs.”

  4. The Oregonian reports a Pair of cannons found on Oregon Coast could be from 1846 ship. “The discovery of a pair of pre-Civil War era cannons on the Oregon Coast this week has caused a stir among archeologists, historians and coast residents who have flocked to Arch Cape to get a look. The cannons, which residents and a state park official speculate came from the USS Shark, a survey schooner that ran aground on the Columbia Bar in 1846, washed up this week… Gary McDaniel, a supervisor with the Oregon Parks and Recreation Department’s Nehalem Bay management unit, said the cannons appear to be two of three cannons that were mounted on the USS Shark. The first cannon washed up in 1898 and is the namesake of Cannon Beach, about four or five miles north of Arch Cape.”

Oh and Castro will step down from power this weekend.

Feb 19 2008

Plotting Technique and Working with the Opponent

As many of you know I’ve been working on “The Novel.”

I’ve gone back and forth with regards to what kind of story it’s going to turn out to be. There are elements of mystery…chick lit…adventure…pirate…faerie embedded within the story itself.

I have a protagonist, an antagonist, and a whole host of other characters. Some of them are friendly to the protagonist’s mission. Others? Not so much.

I have a John Doe who was killed early on in the novel. While my protagonist wants to know why, the antagonist really isn’t interested in explaining why he hired someone to kill the gentleman.

 

He had his reasons…and though they aren’t great…they are reasons.

But now that I’m trying to figure that out…and both of the characters seem to be having a kind of stand off over coffee/tea in one conversation…I’ve concluded that I need to throw more stuff into the beginning sections with regards to something John Truby (The Anatomy of Story) calls “The Iceberg Opponent”:

Making the opponent mysterious is extremely important, no matter what kind of story you are writing. Think of the opponent as an iceberg. Some of the iceberg is visible about the water. But most of it is hidden below the surface, and that is by far the more dangerous part. There are four techniques that can help you make this opposition in your story as dangerous as possible:

1. Create a hierarchy of opponents with a number of alliances;

2. Hide the hierarchy from the hero and the audience, and hide each opponent’s true agenda;

3. Reveal all this information in pieces and at an increasing pace over the course of the story;

4. Consider having your hero go up against an obvious opponent early in the story.

So now I’m wondering if the bad guy that I know about is the final bad guy…or if he’s just another minion for something…errr…someone much bigger and nastier.

Feb 19 2008

What Time Is It Kids?

It’s Beezlebufo Time!

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Yes, it’s true (via the Associated Press, via The Columbus Dispatch)…


WASHINGTON – A frog the size of a bowling ball, with heavy armor and teeth, lived among dinosaurs millions of years ago – intimidating enough that scientists who unearthed its fossils dubbed the beast Beelzebufo, or Devil Toad.


It seems to be a relative of South American horned frogs, known scientifically as Ceratophrys. Popular as pets, they’re sometimes called pacman frogs for their huge mouths.

Like those modern frogs, Beelzebufo had a wide mouth and powerful jaws, plus teeth. Skull bones were extremely thick, with ridges and grooves characteristic of some type of armor or protective shield.

…leap…

The name comes from the Greek word for devil, Beelzebub, and Latin for toad, bufo (pronounced boo-foe).


The family link raises a paleontology puzzle: Standard theory for how the continents drifted apart show what is now Madagascar would have been long separated by ocean from South America during Beelzebufo’s time. And frogs can’t survive long in salt water, Krause noted.

He contends the giant frog provides evidence for competing theories that some bridge still connected the land masses that late in time, perhaps via an Antarctica that was much warmer than today.

Linky:

http://dispatch.com/live/conte…

Well, wait until the Creationists get hold of this one!  Hopefully, Mike Huckabee will explain it on the campaign stump.

Feb 19 2008

IT Need a job?

I routinely have access to jobs for IT, Engineers and other professionals.

These jobs are full-time, permanent positions (not with a staffing company)

in MI.  There are no fees charged to the job applicant or employer for this

service.   Information and applications can be accessed on-line.

Apparently, the last professional did leave MI and forgot to

turn out the lights.  I would think the scarcity of high skilled labor

left in this state, combined with really affordable housing and a

lower cost of living, might be really attractive to someone out there.  

If anyone has any suggestions on where to post and recruit the many, many

jobs we keep getting and are expected to fill, please let me know.  We, of

course, have tried all of the traditional routes:  ads, colleges, training

schools, networking with everyone in the world, etc.  

Here is one of the jobs we are trying to fill:

Level 2 Technical Support Representative

http://www.michworks.org/mtb/u…

This website is also loaded with other MI jobs.  The data base

will do a keyword search.  

– – – –

We are also trying to fill the jobs listed below.

You can learn more about the company and the jobs by following

the link below and clicking on careers.

http://www.t-systemsus.com/tsi…

***Urgent Position***  Bellevue  WA  02/04/2008  

Manager – IP Design and Implementation  Trumbull  CT  12/20/2007  

Senior VoIP Test Engineer  Reston  VA  10/29/2007  

SI – SAP (Technical) Consultant  Rochester hills  MI  01/21/2008  

SI – SAP Lead (Functional) MM Consultant  Bowling Green  KY  02/04/2008  

SI – SAP Lead (Functional) PP Consultant  Bowling Green  KY  02/18/2008  

SI – Software Developer  Rochester Hills  MI  02/05/2008  

SI – Software Architect  Rochester Hills  MI  02/06/2008  

Software Support Engineer  Rochester Hills  MI  12/10/2007

– – – –

Buhdy:  If you mind me doing this, please let me know; and I will immediately delete.  

If not, I’ll keep trying to get out the word.  Please feel free to pass the word.

Thank you buhdy.

Feb 19 2008

The World As It Could Be

The only thing that never changes….is that everything always changes. However the rate of change undoubtedly fluctuates. If we look back at history we can see many periods and many points where the various conditions that normally cause slow and steady change suddenly converge and cause massive and rapid change, at least on the historical time scale. We seem to be in one of those periods right now.

But this time, unlike in the past, the change that is occurring as we speak is not limited to one culture or region. It is by its very nature, a planetwide phenomenon.

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There are two basic ways to deal with change, Nightprowlkitty (I believe?)recently referred to them as response vs. reaction. Here is a little fantasy of what we could become, as the Human Race, if we were to choose and be able to respond, rather than merely react. It is a fantasy because the very conditions that brought us to this time of change are what prevent us from doing anything but react, at least in the main.

So here are some quick thoughts and ideas, thrown out for discussion and expansion, on what we could do…if we could actually…well…do stuff. And not just sit here on our hands waiting for our leaders to wake up. I will try to expand on these thoughts in future, more detailed essays. Remember kids…these are concepts and ideals, undoubtedly utopian. I do NOT expect them to be implemented any time soon!

The elimination of war as a option.

The establishment of a true United Nations type of entity to deal…through diplomacy…with disputes between nations and facilitate the following:

Worldwide planning and cooperation on an Apollo type alternative energy program.

Worldwide planning and cooperation on the production and distribution of food.

Worldwide planning and cooperation on the acquisition of water rights and the establishment of a water trust for the benefit of all humans.

Worldwide planning and cooperation on mitigating the effects of Climate Crisis, and dealing with Climate refugees.

Truly Universal Healthcare.

and

Truly Universal Human Rights accords, with practical and effective enforcements.

We CAN do this, the only obstacle is…..us.

Feb 19 2008

Anti-Torture Candidate for APA President

Steven Reisner is running for president of the American Psychological Association. He has been a central figure in the fight to break APA from their position that psychologists assist with national security interrogations, such as their work with the Behavioral Science Consultation Teams or BSCTs at Guantanamo and elsewhere. This collaboration by psychologists has not led to a lessening of brutality and psychological torture of detainees, but in fact has been implicated in its design and implementation.

Dr. Reisner’s campaign, as his election statement emphasizes, calls for “a clear departure from the complicity of psychologists in state-sponsored abuses of human rights, whether these take place at Guantánamo, CIA black sites, or domestic supermax prisons.”

I resigned from APA myself last month, in protest of the tight relationship that has grown between the APA ruling apparatus and the various governmental entities that define the national security state. The use of torture is only one of the ways psychologists have been utilized to promote the effectiveness of the U.S. war machine. While I came to the conclusion that APA cannot be reformed at this point, there is the possibility, of course, that I’m wrong. And if it turns out I am mistaken, it will be because the membership of APA will have chosen leaders like Dr. Reisner for their elected offices. If I were still in APA, I definitely would have cast my vote for Steven, and I recommend that any APA members reading this do the same.

Below is an email Dr. Reisner recently distributed, as posted at Psyche, Science, and Society:

Dear Colleagues,

Because of a printing error, the APA Presidential nomination ballots are in the mail again, and once again, I am asking for your support. Please put STEVEN J. REISNER on the first line when you receive the new ballot.

And, if it is possible, please spread the word to other psychologists, groups and listservs.

The issue remains the same: the APA must take a principled stance against our nation’s policy of using psychologists to oversee abusive and coercive interrogations of detainees and ‘enemy combatants’ at centers like Guantánamo and secret CIA black sites, that operate in violation of international law and the Geneva conventions.

For thousands of years, health professionals have been guided by the ethical precept, “Do no harm.” At the time the ethics code of the American Psychological Association was written, wise psychologists went even further, adding a further obligation: “to safeguard the welfare and rights of those with whom they interact professionally and other affected persons.”

Unfortunately, the recent record of the APA has been to undermine this fundamental principle. When the US government called for harsh interrogation strategies for detainees, psychologists answered the call. When psychologists’ roles in these abuses were exposed, the APA leadership first denied that these things actually took place. Even now, the APA defends its policy by claiming that APA should not interfere in the legitimate practice of other psychologists. While I agree wholeheartedly with this value, I do not believe it extends to a supposed ‘freedom’ for psychologists to participate in abusive detainee interrogations, or in any interrogations that take place in conditions where human rights and international law are being flagrantly violated

When, as recently as last week, the President of the United States re-asserted the right to continue to use waterboarding; when just this week, a sitting Supreme Court Justice publicly referred to such techniques as “so-called torture” (“It would be absurd to say you couldn’t…stick something under the fingernail, [or] smack him in the face.” – Antonin Scalia, BBC interview, 2/12/08), we, the health professionals dedicated to human health and welfare, must take a stand. Now is the time for us to reassert the humane standard that has guided health professionals in times of conflict: “Do no harm.”

But since 2002, our ethics code has permitted violations of those standards when they conflict with law or military regulation. In fact, guidelines drafted for Army psychologists providing psychological support for detainee interrogations reminds them: “The Ethics Code is always subordinate to the law and regulations.”

Right now, doing harm, violating the rights and welfare of others, abusing detainees are all legal (“We’ll make sure professionals have the tools necessary to do their job, within the law.” – President Bush, BBC News, Feb. 14, 2004). This is precisely the reason that a clear ethical standard is so important, so that psychologists may remind their superiors that they are required to adhere to the humane standard that has guided health professionals in times of conflict: “Do no harm.”

Many good psychologists have resigned or are withholding their dues because of this issue. Among them is Ken Pope, who wrote in his recent resignation letter from the APA: “APA’s creation of an enforceable standard allowing psychologists to violate these fundamental ethical responsibilities in favor of following a regulation, a law, or a governing legal authority clashes with its ethical foundation, historic traditions, and basic values…This new enforceable standard, in my opinion, contradicts one of the essential ethical values voiced in the Nuremberg trials. Even in light of the post-9-11 historical context and challenges, I believe we can never abandon the fundamental ethical value affirmed at Nuremberg.”

It is time for us to turn the APA around. It is time for the APA to join the other health professional organizations around the world, including the World Medical Association, the American Medical Association, the American Nurses Association, and the American Psychiatric Association, in upholding the United Nations Principles of Medical Ethics and in saying ‘no’ to participation in unethical interrogations and human rights violations.

I am asking for you to help me reverse the APA’s direction and restore our fundamental principles.

Please put STEVEN J. REISNER first when you receive the ballot in the mail. Please remember, these are substitute ballots, so even if you voted once, you must vote again!

And please, spread the word to other APA members, listservs, and groups.

My nomination statement can be read here or downloaded as a pdf here. It can also be read at http://www.ethicalapa.com/Reis… For a detailed history of the issue of psychologists, interrogations, and the APA, please see the ‘Commentary on the APA’s FAQ on Interrogations,’ prepared by the Coalition for an Ethical Psychology: http://tinyurl.com/ys3fjy

Thank you again for your time and your vote!

Steven Reisner, Ph.D.

Coalition for an Ethical Psychology

225 West 15th Street, Apt C

New York, NY 10011

phone 212-633-8391

email: [email protected]

Feb 19 2008

Pony Party, Whom to Quote???

According to Yahoo!Buzz and the study they did to find out which U.S. presidents’ quotes were most-searched, here are your top 10, and some words from each….

10. Franklin Delano Roosevelt

We must remember that any oppression, any injustice, any hatred, is a wedge designed to attack our civilization.

9. Calvin Coolidge

I have never been hurt by anything I didn’t say.

8. John Adams

“I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.”

7. John F. Kennedy

“I look forward to an America which will not be afraid of grace and beauty.”

6. George Bush

You know what’s interesting about Washington? It’s the kind of place where second-guessing has become second nature.

5. George Washington

A government is like fire, a handy servant, but a dangerous master.

4. Ronald Reagan

Politics is supposed to be the second oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.

3. Theodore Roosevelt

Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president.

2. Thomas Jefferson

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.

1. Abraham Lincoln

I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crises. The great point is to bring them the real facts.

~73v

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