I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos and SwingStateProject

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, and MD; today, MS where filing closed on 1/11, WV, where it closed on 1/26 and KY, where it closed on 1/29

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Mississippi has 4 congressional districts

2 are held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

West Virginia has 3 seats; 2 held by Democrats and 1 by a Republican

Kentucky has 6 seats; 2 held by Democrats and 4 by Republicans

The 6 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?       rating

KY-03     D+2     .30      Yarmuth           Yes             Vulnerable

KY-06     R+7     .56      Chandler          No

MS-02     D+10    .14      Thompson          No

MS-04     R+16    .52      Taylor            No

WV-01     R+6     .67      Mollohan          No

WV-03     D+0     .71      Rahall            Yes             Mostly safe

OK, Taylor, Mollohand and Rahall are hardly my ideal Democrats; but they are running without serious Republican opposition in Republican districts.

The seats held by Republicans are

KY-01 R+10 .74

The 1stis mostly the southeastern corner of the state along the TN border, but it loops up around KY-02.

Whitfield, first elected in 1994, does not appear to have an opponent.

KY-02 R +13 .73

The 2nd is more or less the middle of the state.  

Lewis, also first elected in 1994, and also does not appear to have an opponent.

KY-04 R+12 .74

The 4th is the northern part of KY, bordering OH and IN

Davis, first elected in 2004, had a relatively close race in 2006, when he beat Ken Lucas 52-43, with the rest going to a libertarian.  Davis spent over $4 million (after spending $3 million in 2004) while Lucas spent about $1.5 million.

He’s being challenged again, this time by Michael Kelley (One heck of a nice website, if you ask me, with embedded video, and good links)

KY-05 R +8 .79

The 5th is the easternmost part of KY, bordering VA and WV.

Rogers, first elected in 1980, has won easily for years, sometimes unopposed.

This time, he does have an opponent, Kenneth Stepp, who has his own blog .

MS-01 R+10 .63

The first is the northeast portion of MS, along the border with TN.

Wicker, who was first elected in 1994, is leaving to be a Senator.  

I don’t really know what’s going on…it’s a very Republican district, but I don’t have any specific information; there is some info in this diary and comments

MS-03 R+14  .52

The 3rd cuts diagonally across MS from Natchez in the SW corner of the state (bordering LA) to Starkville and the AL border.

Pickering, first elected in 1996, is also retiring.

Another seat where I don’t have good info.

WV-02 R +5 .74

The 2nd cuts across the middle of WV from east to west, and borders on both OH and MD (and almost PA).

Capito, first elected in 2000, has had some significant challenges.  In 2006, she spent over $2 million to get 57% of the vote against Mike Callaghan, who had about $600,000.

At least two Democrats are running: John Unger and Thornton Cooper .  Unger seems to have raised quite a lot of money – I didn’t total it, but it looks like about $100,000 already.  

Summary:

In KY, Yarmuth seems vulnerable; Chandler might be, as well, but no one is running.  Among the Repubs, only Davis seems vulnerable.

In MS, both Democrats are unopposed.  The Republican situation has me flummoxed.

In WV, we are safe, and Capito might be vulnerable.

Muse in the Morning

The muses are ancient.  The inspirations for our stories were said to be born from them.  Muses of song and dance, or poetry and prose, of comedy and tragedy, of the inward and the outward.  In one version they are Calliope, Euterpe and Terpsichore, Erato and Clio, Thalia and Melpomene, Polyhymnia and Urania.

It has also been traditional to name a tenth muse.  Plato declared Sappho to be the tenth muse, the muse of women poets.  Others have been suggested throughout the centuries.  I don’t have a name for one, but I do think there should be a muse for the graphical arts.  And maybe there should be many more.

Please join us inside to celebrate our various muses…

An Opened Mind XXXVIII:

When I was winnowing my poems down to six for submission to Calyx, I added the last two I have written to this series, at least temporarily.  Here’s my most current piece, wish some very small edits.  There is no link to a bigger version yet since I haven’t gotten around to creating and uploading the web page.

Film at 11 Froth Deep down below past even the words are ideas and concepts normally unthought except by the weird unkempt minds of those who dare to be different Whipped creaminess of dangerous notions, syllables expressed too rarely and more seldom heard, whizzes by faster than can normally be sensed Grabbing on to a possibility I was taken downward further than imagination could conceive There is truth here There is more wherever I look And who wanted to be normal anyway –Robyn Elaine Serven –December 28, 2007

I know you have talent.  What sometimes is forgotten is that being practical is a talent.  I have a paucity for that sort of talent in many situations, though it turns out that I’m a pretty darn good cook.  🙂  

Let your talent bloom.  You can share it here.  Encourage others to let it bloom inside them as well.

Won’t you share your words or art, your sounds or visions, your thoughts scientific or philosophic, the comedy or tragedy of your days, the stories of doing and making?  And be excellent to one another!