Pony Party, feels like Monday

This is what we do when Tuesday masquerades as a Monday…..

please enjoy some random video nonsense…

~73v

Docudharma Times Tuesday January 23

This is an Open Thread: Phones Lines are now available.

Tuesday’s Headlines: Crossing Mayor Giuliani Often Had a Price: Clinton, Obama reach new level of rancor: Looking Beyond Feudal Politics in Pakistan: Humiliation for Ahmadinejad as veto is overruled: Just the ticket! Painter finds his perfect ‘canvas’ on Paris Métro

In Asia, Global Market Decline Accelerates

Amid fears that the United States may be in a recession, the decline in stock markets accelerated Tuesday morning as exchanges opened across Asia.

Markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney all fell farther in the opening hours of trading Tuesday than they had all day on Monday. The Hong Kong market plunged another 8 percent by early afternoon after tumbling 5.49 percent on Monday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei dropped 5 percent, hitting a low not seen since September 2005 and facing its worst two-day drop in 17 years on concern global growth is faltering.

Crossing Mayor Giuliani Often Had a Price

Rudolph W. Giuliani likens himself to a boxer who never takes a punch without swinging back. As mayor, he made the vengeful roundhouse an instrument of government, clipping anyone who crossed him.

In August 1997, James Schillaci, a rough-hewn chauffeur from the Bronx, dialed Mayor Giuliani’s radio program on WABC-AM to complain about a red-light sting run by the police near the Bronx Zoo. When the call yielded no results, Mr. Schillaci turned to The Daily News, which then ran a photo of the red light and this front page headline: “GOTCHA!”

Clinton, Obama reach new level of rancor

In S.C. debate, they attack one another’s credibility as Edwards struggles to get a few words in.

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. — Their debate truce obliterated in a blizzard of recriminations, Democratic candidates for president on Monday questioned each other’s honesty and fitness for the White House in a televised confrontation notable for its nasty tone.

The harshness of their exchanges was an odd coda to a day in which the Democrats paid tribute to the nonviolent movement propelled by the late Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., whose birthday was celebrated Monday and in whose honor the Congressional Black Caucus Institute and CNN sponsored the two-hour session.

Asia

Looking Beyond Feudal Politics in Pakistan

Ahead of Feb. 18 Vote, Many Denounce Country’s Feeble Democratic Tradition

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — For Ishaq Khan Khakwani, a member of Pakistan’s National Assembly, the sooner people like him are out of a job, the better.

Khakwani, 58, calls himself and other lawmakers “brokers” between the people and “the oppressive arms” of the state, such as police officers and tax collectors. It is a system held over from British rule, he explained, in which politicians from powerful families act as intermediaries, often using methods such as extortion and false arrests to extract bribes for their services.

China’s celebrities ‘buy’ extra children

· Anger over wealthy breaking one-child rule

· Beijing to impose higher penalties to enforce law


Tania Branigan in Beijing

Tuesday January 22, 2008

The Guardian

Their wealth and fame buy apparently endless privilege. But celebrities’ perks do not extend to larger families, Chinese authorities have warned.

Sports people and pop stars who violate the one-child policy will face harsher fines and tarnished credit records, according to a senior family planning official.

The authorities believe the rich and famous are setting a bad example to ordinary couples – yet barely notice the financial penalties because of their wealth.

“Celebrities and wealthy people would be more heavily fined for giving birth to more than one child. The commission is still deliberating on the amount,” said the head of the municipal family planning commission, Deng Xingzhou.

Middle East

Humiliation for Ahmadinejad as veto is overruled

Robert Tait

Tuesday January 22, 2008

The Guardian

The political authority of the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, suffered a serious blow yesterday after the country’s most powerful figure, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sided with MPs by ordering him to supply cheap gas to villages suffering power cuts in an unexpectedly harsh winter.

In a humiliating rebuff, Iran’s supreme leader, who has the final say over all state matters, ordered the enactment of a law requiring the government to provide £500m-worth of gas supplies from emergency reserve funds.

Israel blames Gaza for power crisis but agrees to allow one delivery of fuel

Israel agreed under intense international pressure last night to allow a one-off delivery of fuel and medicines to Gaza to avert a humanitarian crisis.

Ehud Barak, the Defence Minister, said that he would allow the emergency shipment after the Gaza Strip’s sole remaining power plant shut down for lack of fuel and UN officials gave warning that they would be forced to stop food handouts to about a million Gazans if the total blockade, imposed last week, was not lifted.

President Mubarak of Egypt had called Mr Barak and Ehud Olmert, the Prime Minister of Israel, to urge them to end the blockade. Israel had hoped that it would force Gaza’s Islamist rulers to end the constant rocket attacks on Israeli towns close to the Palestinian territory.

Europe

Just the ticket! Painter finds his perfect ‘canvas’ on Paris Métro

By Emily Murphy in Paris

Published: 22 January 2008

You’ve heard of underground writers but Luc Grateau’s work gives the term underground artist a new meaning. Every day for three years, the artist has used old Métro tickets to create miniature portraits of fellow passengers in Paris.

Since he began the project in the autumn of 2004, Grateau, 47, a manager at a French government research organisation, has painted more than 1,000 portraits. Only once has someone got annoyed and asked him to stop. More often people are just curious.

“Every day in Paris, you see dozens of different faces but by the evening, you can’t remember any of them,” he said. “For me, it is important to try and remember.”

Grateau paints to record all those tiny moments, a look, a smile, that thousands of people fleetingly exchange every day while travelling on the Métro. “Frequently I am so absorbed in what I am doing I forget to get off,” he said.

Small traders meet force of Belarus law

Minsk Riot police barred the way to the presidential palace in Belarus, where 20 people were arrested after several thousand people marched in protest against new restrictive employment laws. Vladimir Naumov, the Interior Minister, personally grabbed some of the demonstrators.

Entrepreneurs are angry about a new law that stops small-business owners employing people who are not relatives. The law forces them to re-register as private companies which doubles their tax burden if they want to hire staff outside the family. It is the second big protest in the capital this month.

Latin America

‘Huge’ oil field found off Brazil

A huge natural gas field has been found a short distance off Rio de Janeiro’s coastline, Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, says.

The company believes the new field, Jupiter, could match the recently discovered Tupi oil field in size.

Tupi is thought to be one of the largest fields discovered in the past 20 years.

But Petrobras officials say further work needs to be done to establish Jupiter’s exact dimensions.

Paraguay’s ruling party confirms woman as candidate

Former Cabinet minister Blanca Ovelar faces a court challenge from a former vice president who says he was robbed of the nomination.

BUENOS AIRES — Paraguay’s long-dominant ruling party on Monday confirmed that a former Cabinet minister would be its candidate in the coming presidential election, though her nomination faced a court challenge.

If elected in the April balloting, Blanca Ovelar would become the country’s first female head of state and the third woman elected president in South America in recent years. Women now lead Argentina and Chile.

However, her chief rival for the nomination, former Vice President Luis Castiglioni, vowed to pursue his legal challenge. Their Colorado Party has dominated Paraguayan politics for six decades.

If her candidacy withstands the internal test, Ovelar will probably confront a pair of popular opposition leaders who have said they intend to challenge the Colorado Party’s hegemony in the general elections, scheduled for April 20.

Africa

Nationwide Outages Hit Zambia, Zimbabwe Almost Simultaneously

HARARE, Zimbabwe, Jan. 20 — Power outages shut down basic services across Zambia and Zimbabwe as anger mounted in South Africa over power cuts that have wreaked havoc in the continent’s economic hub.

There was no immediate explanation for the nationwide blackouts, which hit Zambia and neighboring Zimbabwe almost simultaneously early Saturday evening. It was unclear whether there was any connection.

Power was restored in Zambia about eight hours later, but long-suffering Zimbabweans remained without electricity, water, telephones and traffic signals for much of Sunday.

Muse in the Morning

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Muse in the Morning

The muses are ancient.  The inspirations for our stories were said to be born from them.  Muses of song and dance, or poetry and prose, of comedy and tragedy, of the inward and the outward.  In one version they are Calliope, Euterpe and Terpsichore, Erato and Clio, Thalia and Melpomene, Polyhymnia and Urania.

It has also been traditional to name a tenth muse.  Plato declared Sappho to be the tenth muse, the muse of women poets.  Others have been suggested throughout the centuries.  I don’t have a name for one, but I do think there should be a muse for the graphical arts.  And maybe there should be many more.

Please join us inside to celebrate our various muses…

An Opened Mind XXXII:

This is the third in the subseries of six poems about Daily Kos.  The color schemes of the art work will probably give that away.  Last summer the poem and art appeared in Art in a Liberal Frame.

Art Link

The Road

To some of us

To some of us

it doesn’t matter

what you think

started us

on this journey

To some of us

it doesn’t matter

what you believe

even if

what you

believe

is that

what someone else

believes

is wrong

To some of us

it may be

an interesting way

to share our stories

…or not

But the fact is

that we are all

on this journey

together

And to some of us

the question is

“What do we do now?”

To some of us

the question is

“Where do we go from here?”

And we wonder if

you intend

to stand there and argue

or if you want

to come along

–Robyn Elaine Serven

–February 3, 2007

I know you have talent.  What sometimes is forgotten is that being practical is a talent.  I have a paucity for that sort of talent in many situations, though it turns out that I’m a pretty darn good cook.  🙂  

Let your talent bloom.  You can share it here.  Encourage others to let it bloom inside them as well.

Won’t you share your words or art, your sounds or visions, your thoughts scientific or philosophic, the comedy or tragedy of your days, the stories of doing and making?  And be excellent to one another!

Wavering over the kingmaking

I get the sense that a lot of people out there — not necessarily a plurality, but enough to justify having a public conversation with them — share roughly my preference order with respect to the remaining non-Gravel Democratic Presidential candidates.  In terms of what I’d like to see in a nominee, I’d give Edwards a 90, Obama an 84, Clinton a 72, and I’ll explain where Kucinich fits in later.  So here’s where I stand after today’s debate, and y’all can hash it out in comments if you want.  There’s no special reason that you should be that interested in what I think, so there’s no particular reason that you should be abusive in comments.  I’m mostly setting this down as my own diary for the record, so I can refer to it years down the line.  (Thanks again, buhdy, for providing this service.)

I was ready to bolt from Edwards to Obama after Nevada.  I remember a year ago how well Edwards looked like he’d be doing in Nevada, and falling to 4% — even though it’s a caucus — is deadly, almost no matter what happens in South Carolina.  But the debate tonight slowed what I expect will be my inevitable conversion.  I liked Obama tonight, but Edwards just hit all the right notes again, as usual.  I do want to support someone who will beat Hillary, in any event, although more because of my doubts about her electability than disagreements over the policies she’s now presenting.

Policywise, Hillary has tacked well to the left by now and, as I’ve argued before, if she gets elected I think the times will call for her to govern as a progressive.  Presidents and their policies are largely determined by circumstances — ask poor Jimmy Carter, plagued by Ruhollah Khomeini and Paul Volcker, about that one — as well as by their intent.  (Bush the Lesser is an exception, but his policies are not intended to be constructive.  It’s easy to destroy.)  I don’t care much about the specifics of health care plans, etc., because I think that the brunt of the work will be done in Congress and whatever their personal preferences none of them will stand in the way of a good plan.  (They should just enroll everyone regardless of ability to pay, counteracting it with progressive taxation, but whether they will or not has little to do with what they say now.)  The problem with Hillary is that so many people other than committed, and usually older, Democrats dislike her so intensely.  Yes, everyone has high negatives, but there are gradations among those negatives that a simple binary “like or don’t like” question will miss.  Lots of people really don’t like her — including the press, which will be a serious problem if the GOP nominates McCain (less so if it’s Romney, none at all if it’s Giuliani) — and I am not willing to be Starbuck to her Ahab.  The sort of caucus shenanigans that thereisnospoon is writing about, if proven, won’t help lower her negatives, of course, though I’d certainly support her in a general election.

The one statistic about Obama that strikes me most is how he keeps winning the independents and Republicans in every race, including Nevada.  I love that sort of prospect, because I really want to win this election.  I don’t feel the toe-tingling magic when he speaks as intensely as many other people do, but I can read poll numbers and election returns.  Normally, if you see results like those separating Hillary and Obama, it’s because the one winning over the Democrats is much more liberal than the one getting the independents, and the question becomes how much ideology one is willing to give up for a better chance of winning.  But this time, one doesn’t have to give up any ideology to get the one who can capture the middle: while Obama’s talk of reconciliation and bipartisanship can be frustrating, like Hillary he will govern very much as a progressive simply because the times demand it.  So he will carry the Democrats strongly — seriously, who’s not going to come out for him? — and will make substantial inroads among non-Democrats.  I like that kind of outcome.  The only reason I’m not already for him enthusiastically, despite his frustrating limitations, is that another candidate is talking in such a way that I can’t fail to support him if there’s a chance he could win the nomination.

I thought that Edwards’s answers were the most compelling tonight, including the one regarding a match-up with McCain.  Edwards does have a problem in that the media does not like him as much as it does Obama and McCain, but he’s right that he matches up better than Hillary against McCain and I think he’ll be preferred to Romney (who I still think will win) as well.

So why not stick with Edwards?  It’s largely because I don’t think he can beat Hillary, and I really think she matches up poorly against McCain.  More on that later.  Essentially, my problem with Edwards is that if I support him at this point, it is hard to explain why I am not supporting Kucinich.

I am not supporting Kucinich largely because I don’t think he could win, and if he did win I don’t think he could govern, and having ruled him out long ago I haven’t worried that much about his specific stands on the issues.  It’s certainly conceivable that I’d agree with his issue positions more than Edwards’s, but that’s not so critical: they’re both good enough that I’d make the decision on other factors.  But the argument for supporting Kucinich is that it strengthens the Left of the party, and — to choose the metaphor I dislike so — moved the Overton Window further to the left than does a vote for Edwards.  That’s a strong argument, and if I didn’t have a preference between Obama and Hillary, it might well convince me.  (I voted twice for Jesse Jackson, who I didn’t think could win or govern, for much the same reason.)  But, if I won’t support Kucinich because he won’t win, then why support Edwards if — as may well be apparent by this Saturday night — he won’t win either?

I see two answers to that floating around, one moral and one tactical.  The moral answer is that one does it because it’s right and it sends a good message, but again if that was my sole concern, to the exclusion of helping someone beat Hillary, I might well vote for Kucinich.  The tactical reason is this: the better Edwards does, the more delegates he has, and the greater the chance that he can be a kingmaker at the convention.  That is the judgment now separating me from several friends who share my preference ordering but have said that they’ll vote for Edwards no matter what.  So that is the argument I have to address here.

Let’s assume that my vote is the deciding one that will determine the fate of a delegate.  Let’s further assume that Edwards could direct that delegate to vote as he saw fit in Denver.  Does it make sense to send that delegate out as an Edwards supporter, or as an Obama supporter?

This is where I get hung up.  I look at that question, and the answer keeps coming back “you want the delegate supporting Obama.”  Here’s the reason: while I like the idea of Edwards holding the balance of power at a convention, I am not neutral to how he would exercise that power.  I want him ultimately to side with Obama.  I don’t care that much about his being able to exact a price in the platform — I don’t care that much about the platform — nor about his using it to gain a spot on the ticket, if that’s what he wants.  I care only about which way he throws his support.  And the one way to make sure that Obama winds up with that delegate on the second ballot is to give the delegate to Obama in the first place.

There are offsetting advantages and disadvantages to Obama’s ultimately getting that delegate from Edwards, if that were something I could control by force of will, rather than his coming into the convention with that delegate in hand.  On the positive side: more exposure and appreciation for Edwards and his message.  On the negative side: for Obama to have to beg for delegates makes him look weak, which hurts his chances in the general election.  Overall, it looks like pretty much of a wash.  The only advantage I could see would be if Edwards would be able to veto a bad VP selection by Obama, but realistically I don’t think Hillary will deliver on that while Obama won’t.

Not for the first time, I wish that primary voting used an essay question rather than multiple choice, but Instant Runoff Voting is not yet on the horizon.  While Edwards’s performance tonight has kept me from calling up Obama HQ tomorrow and asking what I could do for the cause, I have a feeling that I may be making that call Sunday morning.  How well would Edwards have to do in South Carolina to make me call his HQ rather than Obama’s?  I don’t know — but, unfortunately, I also don’t expect to have to worry about that.

MLK III to Edwards: “Keep Fighting. My Father Would Be Proud.”

(@1 AM – promoted by On The Bus)

X-Posted from MyDD

Martin Luther King, III Praises Edwards For Leading The Fight For Economic Justice In America.

Following a meeting at the King Center in Atlanta on the afternoon of Saturday, January 19th, 2008, Martin Luther King, III sent John Edwards a letter praising Edwards’ commitment to fighting poverty and speaking out for those without a voice. King, the first son of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and the President and CEO of Realizing the Dream, said his father was a fighter and urged Edwards to continue the fight for justice and equality. He also urged the other candidates to follow Edwards’ lead.

So, I urge you: keep going. Ignore the pundits, who think this is a horserace, not a fight for justice. My dad was a fighter.

As a friend and a believer in my father’s words that injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere, I say to you: keep going. Keep fighting. My father would be proud.

Sincerely,

Martin L. King, III

Full letter, after the fold.

January 20, 2008

The Honorable John R. Edwards

410 Market Street

Suite 400

Chapel Hill, NC 27516

Dear Senator Edwards:

It was good meeting with you yesterday and discussing my father’s legacy. On the day when the nation will honor my father, I wanted to follow up with a personal note.

There has been, and will continue to be, a lot of back and forth in the political arena over my father’s legacy. It is a commentary on the breadth and depth of his impact that so many people want to claim his legacy. I am concerned that we do not blur the lines and obscure the truth about what he stood for: speaking up for justice for those who have no voice.

I appreciate that on the major issues of health care, the environment, and the economy, you have framed the issues for what they are – a struggle for justice. And, you have almost single-handedly made poverty an issue in this election.

You know as well as anyone that the 37 million people living in poverty have no voice in our system. They don’t have lobbyists in Washington and they don’t get to go to lunch with members of Congress. Speaking up for them is not politically convenient. But, it is the right thing to do.

I am disturbed by how little attention the topic of economic justice has received during this campaign. I want to challenge all candidates to follow your lead, and speak up loudly and forcefully on the issue of economic justice in America.

From our conversation yesterday, I know this is personal for you. I know you know what it means to come from nothing. I know you know what it means to get the opportunities you need to build a better life. And, I know you know that injustice is alive and well in America, because millions of people will never get the same opportunities you had.

I believe that now, more than ever, we need a leader who wakes up every morning with the knowledge of that injustice in the forefront of their minds, and who knows that when we commit ourselves to a cause as a nation, we can make major strides in our own lifetimes. My father was not driven by an illusory vision of a perfect society. He was driven by the certain knowledge that when people of good faith and strong principles commit to making things better, we can change hearts, we can change minds, and we can change lives.

So, I urge you: keep going. Ignore the pundits, who think this is a horserace, not a fight for justice. My dad was a fighter. As a friend and a believer in my father’s words that injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere, I say to you: keep going. Keep fighting. My father would be proud.

Sincerely,

Martin L. King, III

http://www.johnedwards.com/new…

Smart Ways to Think about Our Economic Problems




Did you know that some of the greatest wealth has been grown during times of recession? There are some really smart ways to adjust your economic “thinking” so that you can trust your investment instincts. There are also some smart things you can “do.”

The number one smartest thing you can do is ask questions in a economic-topic Essay. Don’t be intimidated because you don’t know what the writer is talking about. Tell your story. Ask for advice. Get people to argue about your situation. Keep the conversation going and bring the economic gurus down to your level.

Some of very knowledgeable economic watchers participate here. You can tell they are pros, because they never, ever give investment advice.

I, on the other hand — well, you just can’t shut me up. Thus, it’s risky to read on past here.


First of all, let me give you the bottom line — beaten down assets and defensive assets will remain supreme. Write that down, even if you don’t know what it means. That’s your primary filter. As most of you know, I subscribe to a lot of expensive private newsletters. Others are not so expensive. I’m going to quote from some.

Last week sucked in the US stock market. It posted its worst week in five years. As if it weren’t bad enough, the developmentally disabled son of the Bush family, George, announced his economic rescue package, which was so embarassing it sent a shock wave around the world. (It had something to do with giving US citizens $800 to spend shopping at Wal-mart — or something like that.)

As a result, the entire world sold off their markets overnight (Monday).

Europe was thrashed. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 4.1%. That’s the most it’s plummeted since the September 11th attacks. The German Dax fell the most since 2003 (down 5.3%). The CAC 40 (which tracks French stocks) and FTSE 100 (which tracks the U.K.) also sank tremendously.

It wasn’t any better in the Far East. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index had its biggest drop in six years – 5.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slipped 3.9%. India’s Sensitive Index dropped the most since 2004. Australia’s stock market fell for the 11th straight day.

The world is now convinced that a recession is coming in the United States. And a US recession will cause other economies around the world to slow down.

Furthermore, the Fed can’t cut interest rates fast enough at this point to save the economy. It will take at least 6 to 9 months to affect the economy. Certainly, Congress cannot act in time to avoid a recession by passing out Wal-Mart gift cards. But there are ways for individuals to make money in this global losing streak.

Carry-trades sold off big time last night. The winners once again in all of this turmoil were the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the U.S. dollar.

Wow! The US Dollar Could be a Hot Asset?

Now, that IS a new way of thinking. That means you can get out of the stock market, if you want, and hold cash.

Normally a slowdown in an economy coupled with interest rate cuts will bring a currency’s value down. However, the U.S. dollar been sold off for several years in a row now. It’s at 30-year lows and much of the “slowdown” has already been priced into the buck.

Here’s the thinking now:

On top of this, central banks from around the world are starting to cut interest rates. The U.K. and Canada have already cut rates. In fact, Canada is expected to cut rates again this week. It may not be long before the ECB has to cut rates in Europe. So with these countries cutting rates, it’s going to take some of the “sting” out of the rate cuts that happen in America.

This means that “going to cash” is not the worst idea in the world. (Although, if you have a lot of cash, I would go Everbank.com and open deposit accounts for some of it in the Yen and Swiss Franc, as well.)

Traders will continue to run to the “beaten down assets” like the yen, franc and dollar as this turmoil worsens. These three currencies are some of the most oversold assets on the planet. So they’ve got a long ways to go. These three currencies could rise for quite some time before they get anywhere close to “fair value.”

The biggest beneficiary of 2008 will be the Japanese yen. The biggest “shocker” of 2008 will be that the U.S. dollar doesn’t plummet hard on “recession” news and interest rate cuts. Right now, these assets are seen as a “safe haven” in this fallout.

So, there’s the trading advice from Pluto — which from this orbit has a pretty good view of Uranus.

Four Things that Must Happen Before the U.S. Markets Can Turn Around

Housing Market Needs to Stop Declining. In short, housing must improve. When will this happen? Housing stocks usually recover many months before the actual housing market does. That’s because the stock market likes to price in what traders think will happen in the next six months….

Oil Prices Must Continue to Fall. High oil is like a tax on the consumer. There are a lot of things you have the choice of buying or not buying…gasoline for your car is not one of them. So as the price of oil and gas go down, this will put more money back into the consumer’s pocket. That will do more good than what will come out of Washington, D.C.

Interest Rates Need to Be Slashed Further. As interest rates drop, credit becomes cheaper. So loans for consumers and corporate America cost less. Therefore the consumer and corporate America can get back into “growth” mode. As corporations can borrow to expand more cheaply, then things will look up again…. [Again, refer to the dollar uptick phenomenon, above. — Pluto]

We Need a Vote of Confidence from Consumers. We’ll see this when they spend. So watch the U.S. retail sales numbers. We won’t have an economic recovery without the consumer being involved. So watch for the Retail Index (RLX) to pick up. Once you see these things improve, wait a few months and then start tip toeing back into the stock market and into high yielding currencies. Take a look at some stocks to buy and get yourself earning money.

Still, remember, it’s always a bull market somewhere. As usual, I see it in the currencies you invest your dollars in.

Also, if you do believe the stock market is heading down for awhile (doh), and decide to go to cash, you can dollar-cost average back in at 10 percent a month and own a lot more stock when it finally turns around.


On Quitting