Slight griefs talk, great ones are speechless.

What the Arab world needs most is free expression
By Jamal Khashoggi, Washington Post
October 17, 2018

I was recently online looking at the 2018 “Freedom in the World” report published by Freedom House and came to a grave realization. There is only one country in the Arab world that has been classified as “free.” That nation is Tunisia. Jordan, Morocco and Kuwait come second, with a classification of “partly free.” The rest of the countries in the Arab world are classified as “not free.”

As a result, Arabs living in these countries are either uninformed or misinformed. They are unable to adequately address, much less publicly discuss, matters that affect the region and their day-to-day lives. A state-run narrative dominates the public psyche, and while many do not believe it, a large majority of the population falls victim to this false narrative. Sadly, this situation is unlikely to change.

As a result, Arabs living in these countries are either uninformed or misinformed. They are unable to adequately address, much less publicly discuss, matters that affect the region and their day-to-day lives. A state-run narrative dominates the public psyche, and while many do not believe it, a large majority of the population falls victim to this false narrative. Sadly, this situation is unlikely to change.

The Arab world was ripe with hope during the spring of 2011. Journalists, academics and the general population were brimming with expectations of a bright and free Arab society within their respective countries. They expected to be emancipated from the hegemony of their governments and the consistent interventions and censorship of information. These expectations were quickly shattered; these societies either fell back to the old status quo or faced even harsher conditions than before.

My dear friend, the prominent Saudi writer Saleh al-Shehi, wrote one of the most famous columns ever published in the Saudi press. He unfortunately is now serving an unwarranted five-year prison sentence for supposed comments contrary to the Saudi establishment. The Egyptian government’s seizure of the entire print run of a newspaper, al-Masry al Youm, did not enrage or provoke a reaction from colleagues. These actions no longer carry the consequence of a backlash from the international community. Instead, these actions may trigger condemnation quickly followed by silence.

As a result, Arab governments have been given free rein to continue silencing the media at an increasing rate. There was a time when journalists believed the Internet would liberate information from the censorship and control associated with print media. But these governments, whose very existence relies on the control of information, have aggressively blocked the Internet. They have also arrested local reporters and pressured advertisers to harm the revenue of specific publications.

There are a few oases that continue to embody the spirit of the Arab Spring. Qatar’s government continues to support international news coverage, in contrast to its neighbors’ efforts to uphold the control of information to support the “old Arab order.” Even in Tunisia and Kuwait, where the press is considered at least “partly free,” the media focuses on domestic issues but not issues faced by the greater Arab world. They are hesitant to provide a platform for journalists from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen. Even Lebanon, the Arab world’s crown jewel when it comes to press freedom, has fallen victim to the polarization and influence of pro-Iran Hezbollah.

The Arab world is facing its own version of an Iron Curtain, imposed not by external actors but through domestic forces vying for power. During the Cold War, Radio Free Europe, which grew over the years into a critical institution, played an important role in fostering and sustaining the hope of freedom. Arabs need something similar. In 1967, the New York Times and The Post took joint ownership of the International Herald Tribune newspaper, which went on to become a platform for voices from around the world.

My publication, The Post, has taken the initiative to translate many of my pieces and publish them in Arabic. For that, I am grateful. Arabs need to read in their own language so they can understand and discuss the various aspects and complications of democracy in the United States and the West. If an Egyptian reads an article exposing the actual cost of a construction project in Washington, then he or she would be able to better understand the implications of similar projects in his or her community.

The Arab world needs a modern version of the old transnational media so citizens can be informed about global events. More important, we need to provide a platform for Arab voices. We suffer from poverty, mismanagement and poor education. Through the creation of an independent international forum, isolated from the influence of nationalist governments spreading hate through propaganda, ordinary people in the Arab world would be able to address the structural problems their societies face.

Turkish sources say, not to get too gruesome, that he screamed for 7 minutes as they dismembered him alive with no anesthetics before he passed out from the pain. Dr. Salah Muhammed Al-Tubaigy, the head of Forensic Evidence at the Saudi General Security Department and traveling Bone Saw, wore earbuds to drown out the sound and said to others attending, “I always use these, you should get some.”

How committed are you already?

More myths about voting.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

In Chess this is the most interesting part because you’ve run out of the cheats in your Big Book Of Openings (I favor English because it’s unusual, unexpected, and works on both sides of the board) and you’re left staring at…

Well, a mess. Your Rooks are Doubled (meaning there is a clear line of communication between them) and your Bishops fianchettoed (deployed on the longest diagonals for maximum power), your Queen liberated for defense, your King well protected and your Knights aggressively postured. Somehow you have to turn that into a Checkmate.

Normally you simplify, sacrificing your pieces to remove your opponent’s pieces that have high value or are strategically significant. With the board emptier of distraction you go for the kill.

According to Bloomberg News (which I shall shortly cite at length) Mueller is at that stage. They contend that this is the End Game while I feel like a kitten in a big box of yarn. I think the most likely development after the election is a pile of indictments directed at Trump’s Inner Circle including his family and perhaps several sealed ones for The Donald himself. It is another probability that he will issue a preliminary report to Rosenstein and that he in turn will dump it to Congress like a hot potato. This is an insurance policy, especially if we get the kind of “Blue Wave” result we are hoping for.

Does Trump fire Sessions? Yes, thanks for nothing you disposable peon. Does he fire Rosenstein? He doesn’t need to, the new AG will presumably be free of recusable conflicts of interest (aside being appointed by Trump of course) and can take over supervision of the Russian Treason Plot investigation where he can proceed to thwart Mueller in a thousand ways that are significant but never get a headline.

So do I think of November 6th as a deadline? Yes I do. Only it won’t quite be November 6th because friction.

The fact remains that Mueller, while he undoubtedly knows a lot more than you’re able to pick up in the Press, probably hasn’t explored the uttermost reaches of Trump corruption yet if only because the territory is so vast.

Still, expect heavy news cycles after November 7th.

Mueller Ready to Deliver Key Findings in His Trump Probe, Sources Say
By Chris Strohm, Greg Farrell, and Shannon Pettypiece, Bloomberg News
October 17, 2018

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expected to issue findings on core aspects of his Russia probe soon after the November midterm elections as he faces intensifying pressure to produce more indictments or shut down his investigation, according to two U.S. officials.

Specifically, Mueller is close to rendering judgment on two of the most explosive aspects of his inquiry: whether there were clear incidents of collusion between Russia and Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, and whether the president took any actions that constitute obstruction of justice, according to one of the officials, who asked not to be identified speaking about the investigation.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Mueller’s findings would be made public if he doesn’t secure unsealed indictments. The regulations governing Mueller’s probe stipulate that he can present his findings only to his boss, who is currently Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. The regulations give a special counsel’s supervisor some discretion in deciding what is relayed to Congress and what is publicly released.

The question of timing is critical. Mueller’s work won’t be concluded ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections, when Democrats hope to take control of the House and end Trump’s one-party hold on Washington.

But this timeline also raises questions about the future of the probe itself. Trump has signaled he may replace Attorney General Jeff Sessions after the election, a move that could bring in a new boss for Mueller. Rosenstein also might resign or be fired by Trump after the election.
…
There’s no indication, though, that Mueller is ready to close up shop, even if he does make some findings, according to former federal prosecutors. Several matters could keep the probe going, such as another significant prosecution or new lines of inquiry. And because Mueller’s investigation has been proceeding quietly, out of the public eye, it’s possible there have been other major developments behind the scenes.

Mueller only recently submitted written questions to Trump’s lawyers regarding potential collusion with Russia, and his team hasn’t yet ruled out seeking an interview with the president, according to one of the U.S. officials. If Trump refused an interview request, Mueller could face the complicated question of whether to seek a grand jury subpoena of the president. The Justice Department has a standing policy that a sitting president can’t be indicted.
…
After several postponements, Mueller’s team has agreed to a sentencing date for Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, who pleaded guilty to one count of making false statements last year. The Dec. 18 date comes more than a year after Mueller secured a cooperation deal with Flynn, suggesting that Mueller’s team has all it needs from him.

Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, struck his own cooperation agreement with Mueller last month, after being convicted at trial in Virginia on eight counts of bank fraud, filing false tax returns and failure to file a foreign bank account. The plea agreement let him avoid a second trial in Washington. The judge in the Virginia trial, who wasn’t part of the plea agreement, has scheduled a sentencing hearing Friday, which could complicate Manafort’s cooperation agreement with Mueller.

Mueller’s prosecutors also have met with Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer. Cohen pleaded guilty in New York in August to tax evasion, bank fraud and violations of campaign finance laws. That separate investigation, headed by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Manhattan, is one of several New York probes involving the Trump Organization, and could ultimately prove to be more damaging to the president than Mueller’s work.

Former federal prosecutors said in recent interviews that Manafort’s plea deal probably advanced Mueller’s timeline for determining whether there was collusion.

Manafort could be assisting Mueller’s team on questions related to whether the Trump campaign changed the Republican party’s stance on Ukraine as part of an understanding with the Russian government, and whether the Russians helped coordinate the release of hacked emails related to Democrat Hillary Clinton with members of Trump’s campaign, said another former prosecutor who asked not to be named.

Manafort is also key to understanding a June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower between Donald Trump Jr. and a group of Russians who had promised damaging information concerning Clinton, the former official said.

Manafort appears to have good material to offer, said Samuel Buell, a former federal prosecutor who teaches at Duke University School of Law. “He’s not going to get that deal unless he can help Mueller make a case against one or more people,” Buell said. Cooperators can’t expect leniency unless they provide “substantial assistance in the prosecution of others,” Buell added, citing sentencing guidelines.

So early voting in Texas starts next Monday, October 22nd, and by most accounts Ted Cruz is sitting on an 8 or 9 point lead. On the other hand even after the dark money kicks in O’Rourke has about $10 Million more in the kitty (that he should not dish to other Democratic candidates who have a better chance at winning, his chances of winning are just fine you craven concern troll). Of course there will be a Media Blitz but it’s getting hard to find additional airtime (they run other ads for stuff like Catheters and Boner Pills too you know).

I think the money best invested in Get Out The Vote programs. The reason polls are frequently wrong is their selection of what constitutes a “likely” voter. I think there is a serious underestimation by almost every Polling Organization of exactly how motivated Democrats and Democratic leaning Independent are by the Republican Party’s radical and repressive agenda.

Besides, even Republicans hate Ted.

They recently had a debate that the former Captain of the Princeton Debate Panel did not win and I thought it might amuse you.

Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.

My weakness is Mathematics. I can understand what the instantaneous rate of change is but I don’t have the Trig to express it much less a derivative like the rate of change in the rate of change which is why Traders and Economists sneer at me as a lowly Accountant.

In fact I am a Lion Tamer, surfing Continents of Poetry, Prose, and Philosophy with ease, surveying the vastness of Time and Space as well as the uncertainty of small things. I have practical skills like how to set a proper table and make a stained glass window (impossibly hard if you don’t design straight lines, curves are a pain in the ass). I can’t paint or draw but I’m a wiz at page layout and fair enough at photography.

And I write.

Thick books of code and propaganda and training materials, quite impressive in context. Now I write for myself. I had a political career that I have left behind. I am drenched in blood, no ‘Good Place’ for me, Butt Hole Spiders instead.

Most of what they talked about in the first two seasons I already knew though it made me revisit some favorite authors and try some new ones. This season is more conventional so far, if you’re looking for an education I suggest bingeing 1 & 2.

My character? Ted Danson only I don’t have a bald spot I conceal with a mini toup. Bet you thought it was Chidi.

No Exit? Watch me egress.

How about that left hand. Ace? How about that left-handed draw? Mr. Ace Hanlon. Scourge of the sagebrush. The terror of Tucson. A bladder full of hot air.- The Quick and the Dead

Well Mr. Herod, you did shoot him dead. Not so full now.

So the House of Saud is threatening “responses” to any sanctions issued for their obvious murder of Jamal Khashoggi (Umm… yeah. An interrogation in the Saudi Embassy by 15 Thugs including a Forensics expert with a Bone Saw flown in on a Royal Saudi charter under Diplomatic Immunity is all ‘gentle persuasion gone wrong’ by a bunch of Rogue Agents. As Charlie Piece says “I was cleaning my Bone Saw and it went off!”), how bad could it get?

In the short run, pretty bad. They could stop exporting Oil (which would bankrupt them sooner rather than later which is why they’re attempting economic reforms) and it might temporarily raise the price per Barrel over $200 (translates to about $8 a gallon at the pump, still happy you bought that Ford Explorer?). If Markets panic it might lead to a global recession, but there are plenty of other reasons why there should be one (looking right at you Fed). Soon enough (and it might be very soon) other producers like Iran, Iraq, Brazil, Venezuela, etc. would fill the production gap and while you might not be aware of it the United States is a net Oil exporter and the largest Oil producer in the world. Saudi Arabia is a distant second followed by Russia and Canada.

They sit on a large stash of cash which under Magnitsky Sanctions they could not spend so a big source of new capital would be shut off. Boo who for IPOs. They own an empire of assets they could sell, at a loss. Arms manufacturers would lose their orders and their employees their jobs (until they found others). Again, so what?

Did I mention temporary? The world will get along just fine without Saudi Arabia in the medium term and their society, which depends on handouts from the Petro Biz, will crumble into populist revolt and sectarian violence. The House of Saud will die, root and branch, kneeling to the National Razor.

Bring it you cowards.

Saudis Issued Dire Warnings Against U.S. Sanctions. But How Much Leverage Do They Have?
By Clifford Krauss and Rick Gladstone, The New York Times
Oct. 16, 2018

The Saudis have warned that they could push oil prices to $100 or $200 a barrel, an act that would probably plunge the American and global economies into recession. They have suggested that United States defense companies could forfeit tens of billions of dollars in deals that could instead go to Russia or China.

These threats by Saudi Arabia’s monarchy in recent days were its answer to America’s own threats of punishment over the disappearance and reported killing and dismemberment of a dissident journalist that has shocked the world.

Yet petroleum and defense experts have largely discounted such possibilities.

While Saudi Arabia is still the leading producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and can exert enormous influence over oil prices, it is no longer the energy superpower that American motorists feared during the Arab oil embargo era of the 1970s.

And as longstanding clients of the American arms industry, the Saudis cannot easily switch to other providers.

“They depend more on us than we depend on them,” said Daryl G. Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington.
…
The United States is far less dependent on Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members than even a decade ago, when a drilling frenzy began in shale fields across Texas and North Dakota. American production has more than doubled since 2007 — to 10.5 million barrels a day, from 5.1 million barrels a day — and the United States has become a major exporter for the first time in decades.

The United States imports only 800,000 barrels a day from Saudi Arabia — 600,000 fewer per day than a decade ago — and much of that goes to a Gulf of Mexico refinery owned by Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national oil company.

A cutoff of Saudi oil, which represents less than 5 percent of American supplies, would harm Aramco and cut Saudi government revenue. And the United States could replace those supplies with oil from other countries or from its own fields.
…
Saudi Arabia is by far the biggest foreign recipient of American-made weapons and military gear, according to a database compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

But while President Trump has made much of Saudi Arabia as a critical client of United States defense contractors, punctuated by its commitment last year to purchase $110 billion in American weapons, much of that commitment has yet to be fulfilled.

Some experts said that even if Congress moves ahead to penalize the Saudis by suspending arms sales — as appeared increasingly likely in recent days — the economic impact on the United States would not necessarily be painful.

“It would hurt the stockholders of the defense companies, but these companies will do just fine without these weapons sales,” Mr. Kimball said. “It’s not like they’re Sears Roebuck.”
…
“Previously, we imagined Saudi Arabia as a bulwark not only in a regional alliance system, but also as the main keeper of stability in the oil market,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, a Middle East oil analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Now, the success of that whole role is being called into question, and the fragility of that stature has been revealed.”