Tag: magic

I love it when a completely unexpected and unwarranted assumption jumps out of the closet at the end of a story to vandalize a perfectly good economic horror show with a smiley face.  

Consensus on U.S. growth this year is around 3.5%…But where will this expected growth come from?

First, the deleveraging process is far from over. In fact, It didn’t even begin…

Second, Congress isn’t debating whether fiscal policy has to be tightened — but by how much… Fiscal tightening is a huge swing from the fiscal stimulus position the U.S. economy currently enjoys.

Third, the Fed is moving slowly to prepare the markets for less monetary stimulus for the economy.

[Fourth:] The consumer sector (which accounts for a bit more than 70% of U.S. GDP)…With credit conditions relatively tight and the need to delever still in place, credit-financed consumption growth is some years off.

[Fifth:] Employment growth is barely enough to provide jobs for new entrants…As a consequence, income- and credit-based consumption growth are unlikely to provide the economic motor with the much-needed fuel that replaces the dwindling monetary and fiscal stimulus fuel.

[Sixth:]This leaves us with the investment and net export sectors of the economy to justify a 3.5% growth expectation…but keep in mind that sluggish consumption growth will likely put a dent in investment spending plans…net exports — the component that feeds directly into the GDP figures — are declining again after three years of improvement. The export sector won’t save the day.

To conclude: The U.S. economy will grow over time, if only for the natural tendency of a free market economy to seek an increase of the well being of its citizens.

In concise, mathematical terms,

– 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 (+ free market love!) = growth.

Sure, the economy is going down the crapper, but thank ye, lord, for the impending beneficence of free markets.

Feel better?

A True and Recent Tale

Earlier in the afternoon, my four year old grand daughter Ivy Rose and I finished reading “The Velveteen Rabbit”, just before her nap.  She was especially captivated by the part when the Nursery Fairy gathered the Velveteen Rabbit up from the trash pile, and turned him into a real live rabbit, at last. But at first, he didn’t realize he was alive, and he didn’t know he had back legs, till something tickled his nose, and he saw his hind leg come up and scratch it!

Later, we were outside waiting for her Mom to come and pick her up, running around on my electric scooter, going over the speed bumps and generally having a silly good time, when we spotted a little brown bunny sitting under the pine trees.  I drove us close, very slowly, so as to not startle it.  Ivy stared and stared at it, then said in a whisper, “Gramma! Look! It’s got SPOTS, JUST LIKE THE VELVETEEN RABBIT!”  

Sure enough, it did have spots, and yes, it was the exact same color as the Velveteen Rabbit in the book!  Just then, the bunny turned toward us and grew very still, looking straight at us.  

Then, up came his hind leg , he scratched his nose, and then went a-leaping away! Exactly like in the book:

“He might have sat there a long time, too shy to move, if just then something hadn’t tickled his nose, and before he thought of what he was doing, he lifted his hind toe to scratch it. And he found he actually had hind legs! Instead of dingy velveteen, he had soft brown fur, soft and shiny, his ears twitched by themselves, and his whiskers were so long they brushed the grass. He gave one leap, and the joy of those hind legs was so great that he went springing about on the turf…..”  

Well. Both of us were speechless, and just sat looking at each other for a long moment. Her eyes were as round as saucers, and mine were too!  

Finally, I asked her, “Ivy, do you suppose that might have been the real Velveteen Rabbit?! ”

And she replied, matter of factly …”Yeah, Gramma..it’s magic! Now can we do the speed bumps again?”

So we did, and then we talked about magic some more. I asked her what other kinds of magic she’s seen.  She said:  “One time, I wanted my Mommy to come and pick me up outside, and..SHE DID!”

And so it was that on a warm spring day in the fall of my life, a little child did lead me, once again, to the realm of magic that is real.