Tag: 2008 elections

Continuing through the alphabet….

Minnesota has 8 representatives: 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Filing deadline is July 15, primary is Sept. 9

District: MN-01

Location Southern MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD

Representative Tim Walz (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Notes on opponents Walz ousted Gutknecht while raising $500 K less

Current opponents Dick Day, Mark Meyer, Brian Davis

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; Superribbie ranks this the 17th most vulnerable Democratic seat; still, Walz has to be favored.  

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities

Representative John Kline (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 56-40

2004 margin 56-40

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Collen Rowley raised $700K to Kline’s $1.5 million; in 2004, Teresa Daly raised $1.2 million to Kline’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Steve Sarvi

Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment Possible.  Superribbie calls the 69th most vulnerable Republican seat.  I think it might be more vul. than that.  Kline’s winning percentage isn’t rising with time, he did barely better than Bush in 2004.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities

Representative Jim Ramstad (R) possibly retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money

Current opponents :

Terri Bonoff

Ashwin Madia

and former Repub: Jim Hovland

Demographics 26th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%),  80th fewest Black (3.8%)

Assessment So far as I can tell, Ramstad is retiring, making this a prime pickup opportunity; superribbie ranks this as the 12th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: MN-04

Location St. Paul and suburbs

Representative  Betty McCollum (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Notes on opponents In 2004, Patrice Bataglia raised $200K to McCollum’s $700K; in 2006, Obi Sium raised $75K to McCollum’s $600K

Current opponents John Mayer, possibly others. Mayer seems to have no website, others’ sites are down

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-05

Location Minneapolis and suburbs

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 56-21 (remainder to an independent)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Notes on opponents Tammy Lee actually raised more money than the Republican (Alan Fine) and got almost the same number of votes.  Each raised about $200K, Ellison raised about $800K

Current opponents Apparently Barb White, who also might be running in MN-04, or maybe not running at all

Demographics 45th most Democratic, per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border

Representative Michele Bachmann (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-42 (remainder to John Binkowski)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents Bachmann beat out Wetterling for an open seat. Each spent about $3 million – Bachmann a little less, Wetterling a little more

Current opponents :

Bob Olson and

Elwyn Tinklenberg

Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment We have definite possibilities.  superribbie  (link above) ranks this the 45th most vulnerable Republ

District: MN-07

Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada

Representative Collin Peterson (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 70-29

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Notes on opponents In 2004, David Sturrock raised $125K to Peterson’s $500K.  In 2006, Michael Barrett raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment I don’t call a lot of people DINO, but Peterson is a DINO.  Still, he wins, he doesn’t use a lot of money, and he lines up on the D side, and this is a Republican district

District: MN-08

Location Northeastern MN, bordering WI, Lake Superior, and Canada, including Duluth and International Falls

Representative Jim Oberstar (D)

First elected  1974

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rod Grams raised $500K to Oberstar’s $1.4 million; the 2004 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment safe

Crossposted from Daily Kos

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Obama campaign responds to this hit piece in NYT: Obama in Senate: Star Power, Minor Role, by Kate Zernike and Jeff Zeleny.

The fact check rebuttal can be found here:

Fact Check on New York Times Story that Minimizes Obama’s Senate Accomplishments

March 08, 2008

You’ve just got to feel sorry for Hillary Clinton.  She just can’t seem to do anything right in this campaign.  It’s not just her underestimation of the Clinton Rules, under which anything she says or does — no matter how innocent or mundane — is transformed into some conniving attack formed from evil intentions (just look at the false hype over the “dark” ad).  It’s that things like this happen.

One of the actors in the Hillary Clinton ad was shocked to see herself, especially because she’s a fierce supporter of Barack Obama.

The so-called “red-phone ad” was played all over the country and helped turn the tide for Hillary Clinton leading up to her big win in Ohio. The ad shows a sleeping child and asks voters who they would want to see answering a 3 a.m. emergency phone call to the White House.

But the young girl starring in the ad will actually be voting age next month and says she’s no fan of Hillary Clinton.

One of the unintended consequences of using recycled video footage, obviously.  Which is why it’s probably better to use original material.  Time to fire the poor schmuck who failed to consider something like this happening, eh?

I originally saw this posted on the Rude Pundit‘s blog.

Massachusetts has 10 representatives: All Democrats

Filing deadline is June 3, primary is Sept 16

Michigan has 15 representatives: 9 Republicans and 6 Democrats

Filing deadline is May 13, primary is Aug 5

earlier entries in this series are here

The February jobs report released this morning shows a decrease of 63,000 jobs for the month.  This is the largest single-month decline in about 5 years.  To make matters worse, the 82,000 gain reported for December was revised down to 41,000;  and the loss of 17,000 jobs in January was revised to a worse loss of 22,000.

How effective was the Bush administration in dealing with the worsening job problem?  Well, they tried:

One bright spot was that the government added 38,000 jobs in February on top of 4,000 new-hires in January.

The right-wing “less government” screamers will be thrilled with that, won’t they?  

The mortgage crisis is affecting more aspects of the economy than just housing.  The resulting credit crunch will hinder businesses of all sizes from expanding, which means less new jobs being added.  And if the uncertainty starts prompting job layoffs, which the February report shows is happening, the layoffs can snowball very quickly as businesses react to each other’s downturns.  By contrast, job increases tend to ramp up slowly when a recovery begins.  If a business laid off 100 workers in an economic slowdown, they generally don’t hire all 100 back immediately when they start to recover.

The economy is becoming a bigger campaign issue every day.  States like Ohio, where the economy was already a big issue, is expected to be a harbinger of the crucial Pennsylvania campaign.  Voters faced with job uncertainty, ballooning mortgage payments, and $4.00/gallon gas are going to be in a foul mood.  Obama and Clinton will both face constant questions about NAFTA, gas prices, unemployment, and the mortgage crisis.  Their answers on these questions will be just as important as questions about the Iraq war and health care.

It should be no surprise that the economy could be the biggest issue in the general election.  John McCain’s argument that security is the main reason for choosing a president will ring quite hollow to an electorate that risks losing their houses and jobs.  The economic pain felt by voters is real and is growing.  Undecided voters for the general election have had plenty of time to form opinions about the candidate’s views on the Iraq war, security, health care, taxes, and global warming.  The determining factor to sway undecided voters could be how the candidates respond to the growing economic crisis.  

Looks like Moulitsas still can’t let go of the paranoid “Clinton darkened Obama in her ad” conspiracy theory.

Look, I dislike Hillary Clinton as much as any true Progressive, but this has got to stop.  There are plenty of things the senator says and does in this campaign that are worthy of criticism, but engaging in this sort of unsubstantiated speculation and attack really only hurts two things: Obama’s campaign, and Left Blogsylvania.

It hurts Obama’s campaign because it makes his followers and, by association, the candidate himself, look like they’re hiding behind his race.  Similarly, it hurts Left Blogsylvania because it makes us look like a bunch of delusional kooks who probably haven’t been laid in ages (if ever) and from whom candidates can’t distance themselves fast enough.  Substantive posts like this one end up being ignored or marginalized, because of the association with what is perceived to be a group of utter loons.

I respectfully advise Markos Moulitsas and his band of bloggers to please give it a rest.  Dig up what you can on Clinton; Lord only knows she deserves it.  But don’t let your zeal for exposing her overtake common sense and better judgment.  Or sanity.  Especially sanity.

Via The Politico By: Josephine Hearn and Amie Parnes and Josh Kraushaar :

There were troubling aspects to this 90-page document. While slanted toward the conclusion that Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction stored or produced at 550 sites, it contained vigorous dissents on key parts of the information, especially by the departments of State and Energy. Particular skepticism was raised about aluminum tubes that were offered as evidence Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program. As to Hussein’s will to use whatever weapons he might have, the estimate indicated he would not do so unless he was first attacked.

That’s what Senator Bob Graham, the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee in 2002 wrote his Washington Post OpEd regarding the classified 90-page National Intelligence Estimate on Saddam’s Iraq that was presented by Bush administration’s CIA as evidential basis for a war with Iraq:

What I Knew Before the Invasion

By Bob Graham

Sunday, November 20, 2005

I just returned from voting in Ohio’s primary.  I cast my ballot for Dennis Kucinich, as my choice for both the presidency and the 10th Congressional District’s representative.  And thus my conscience is clean.

I know, I know.  “You just wasted your vote,” many of you shall say.  To that I give you this simple response:  Horse shit.  The only votes wasted, dear readers, are those not cast and those cast for a candidate who doesn’t represent you.  Anyone who tells you differently is either lying to you, or doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

These are not things I write lightly.  I know quite well that what I’ve just typed shall piss off a number of people.  The truth, however, was never designed to make people happy.

Primaries are precisely the time when we as voters are supposed to stand up and vote our beliefs.  Why in God’s name would anyone vote for someone who doesn’t represent him?  “Pragmatism”?  That’s a bullshit excuse, one designed to justify keeping the status quo intact.  And for far too long, far too many Democrats have succumbed to that argument.  We voted “pragmatically” in 2004, cast our ballots for a candidate who wasn’t worth the toilet bowl he shat into, and what did it get us?  Nothing, except four more years of crap raining down upon our country.  Four more years of craven capitulation — two of them under a Democratic Congress — to a boy tyrant who in a sane world would have been removed from office and convicted of treason during the first year of his reign.

Neither Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama have earned so much as a single Democratic vote.  But for the desperation of Americans to elect anyone other than a Republican, the adulation and scorn of the corporate media, and the humongous egos of the two prima donnas themselves, they are the candidates we have been saddled with in this primary season.

There is an admonition against allowing the “perfect” to be the enemy of the “good”.  But really, how many people do you know who ask for or expect perfect?  I and everyone I know is fully aware that nothing and no one is perfect.  All we want are good policy and good representatives.  Yet each and every election cycle, we’re forced to accept the mediocre and the downright bad.

It doesn’t, and shouldn’t, have to be that way.  However you intend to vote in the general election, is this or is it not the time to vote your beliefs — to cast your ballot for the presidential candidate who represents you?  Not Big Business, not the DLC, but you.  Mr. and Ms. Average American.  To hand your ballot to someone who doesn’t represent you is to surrender it to the status quo, to send a message that, no matter how much you may complain about the way things are, you’re perfectly content to leave it as is.

That isn’t democracy, ladies and gentlemen.  It’s a monarchical system, one in which the will of the public is subjected to the greed and ambition of a political minority whose interests are to keep you beaten down and in service to the economic elite.  And I don’t know about you ladies and gentlemen, but I refuse to give in to that bullshit.  Politicians are supposed to work for us, to be our voices in the halls of power.  We are not supposed to subject our interests and political beliefs to those we employ.

Maybe your state’s primary or caucus has already been held.  Maybe it’s today, or has yet to be held.  For those of you who fall into the latter categories,ask yourselves if it isn’t worth it to challenge this fucked up system by voting for the candidate who represents you, just to see what would happen.