Here are some observations on yesterday’s vote. (There will be more in the days to come now that I have some time back after making around 1000 calls for the Obama campaign.)
Talking about Hillary is the main course in this diary, but would you like to start with an appetizer? Let’s talk about Huckabee. The venerable NYT announces that Huckabee has been revived with a solid showing in the South. This is stupid. Why? Well, let’s take a look at the GOP primary map. Huckabee is running out of South!
See, the problem with winning mostly just one section of the country is that after that section has voted in its primaries — it doesn’t vote again. (Michigan and Florida will, I predict, be exceptions to this rule, as the Democrats let them vote again in late May or early June, or perhaps hold caucuses or choose delegates at state conventions.)
So if you look at that map and try to find “South,” you’ll see that Huckabee has Louisiana coming up on Saturday (I predict he’ll win), Virginia (only semi-South these days) next Tuesday, Texas (again not fully South) on March 4, and Mississippi on March 11. Even if he lasts that long, he won’t last long enough to see North Carolina, Kentucky, or (counting the bottom part of the state) Indiana vote in May. So, Huckabee is not “revived” — he has, instead, “shot his wad,” although I don’t think the NYT would include that in a headline. But they need a storyline, so there they go. Romney will still finish second when push comes to shove. I don’t think either one of them will be on the ticket, though: look to Govs. Pawlenty or Crist or (my dark horse, if Rudy can swallow it) Pataki for that.
Is anyone else running out of a precious electoral resource? Why, yes! Pretend you didn’t already read the title and look below the fold.