Tag: The Stars Hollow Gazette

A New Media Paradigm. Part III

A New Media Paradigm. Part I

A New Media Paradigm. Part II

The point is not really the type of music you like, so I apologize to all the Country Music fans I’ve offended even though my true opinion is in fact that I’d rather have my ears Van Goghed than listen to it.

It’s all about the money.

In the vinyl business model your $12 album paid about $2 to the store and about the same to the artist.  The rest went to the greedy bastards in the music business.  Especially during the transition to digital when you had to buy everything twice this was quite a lucrative racket and enabled Record companies to pay Sports Star advances to people like Michael Jackson, Prince, and Madonna.

The interesting thing about advances is that they are advances against future revenues, so it’s not like any of those people were getting real money, what they were getting was the same old $2 only all in a lump up front.  Don’t produce, lose your popularity, sell less, and some soulless accountant shows up at your bling bedecked mansion and tells you your blow budget is cut off.

Bummer to be you dude.

But the soulless accountant and his record company exec friends were still Aok until they started sailing off the shores of digital Somalia.

When you start cutting into Polygram’s blow budget now you’re in for some trouble dude.

I’m both a purist and a technician and I know that it’s simply not possible to duplicate all the information contained in analog media, but as you keep getting incrementally nearer the limits of your derivative you rapidly approach something that is close enough for jazz.  Your brain will fill in the missing pieces.

But once digitized the question simply becomes how many.  If you can play it you can duplicate it, maybe not exactly but close enough for government work (much less than you need for jazz) which is exactly where the execs went to protect their intellectual property.  Unfortunately for them the world is flat and different cultures have different ideas about what exactly property and ownership mean.  Ask Scandinavians (noted pirates and cut throats since Viking times).

So things changed and now you can download your iTunes for $1 a pop and Apple and the artist each get a nickle.

Not quite enough for a swimming pool full of Moet, or even a bathtub.

Still, ya gotta have your bling and the next big thing is concerts and merchandising.  Ever wonder why it costs over a grand to get front row for the Stones?  You’re paying for Keith’s new liver dude and those things are not cheap, even in China.

It has been democratizing in a way.  Now all the artists are starving unless of course you got your start when there was still a mass market and a common culture, but those days are dead as doornails.

A New Media Paradigm. Part II

A New Media Paradigm. Part I

While I have a moment or 2 I’d like to talk about my media habits.

I see a lot.

The TV is on 24/7 unless I’m out.  Usually news as you might imagine.  When I was working as a cashier at a convenience store I’d read 4 newspapers a day including the New York Times and Wall Street Journal which are way overpriced.  When I drive I listen to NewsRadio 88 (Traffic and Weather together on the 8s at 8, 18, 28, 38, 48, and 58 minutes past the hour) unless there’s a Mets game on or I’m out of range (more about the Mets and sports in general in an upcoming episode).

If I’m even out of range of the clear channel stations I like talk radio and occasionally I’ll even stream WABC when my lust for schadenfreude overwhelms me.

Not music so much.

Back in my DJ days my chief utility was librarian and programmer.  When my buddy and I worked he would run the board and I was in charge of finding the next song out of the 1000 CD collection.  By memory with something else playing.  It makes my ears bleed to listen to the plastic mouseketeer boy/girl band American Idol rap crap that passes for popular today.  Music ended about the same time MTV stopped playing videos and started doing reality.

And I’ve always hated country, why do you ask?

But my main point is not to tell you kids that your music sucks although it does (shakes fist at cloud), but to get you to reflect on the changes in the business model of music.  You used to get 7 or 8 great songs an album because they would sell the singles separately.  Then 45s went out of style and you’d get 1 or 2 great songs an album and pay about the same price (adjusted for inflation) as you did for those great A & B side 45s.

Then when digital came out you spent the mega bucks to replace your entire collection.

But digital changed everything.  Vinyl would wear out (two plays, and you can tell the difference between the second and the first) but CDs never do.  More than that, they’re easy to copy.  If all else fails you can put a microphone next to your speaker and tape something that sounds kind of ok, no worse than your average mp3.  Sure it sounds like crap, but so does radio and people have been listening to that for 80 years now.  The fortunate fact is your mind makes up the difference.

Having memorized all those songs I feel no more compelled to re-hear them than to re-read the books I remember the plots from simply by looking at the title on the spine (more thousands and most re-read many times for pleasure).

What I look for from radio on the rare times I listen is novelty.  I want to hear something not only fantastic but new.  My Aunty Mame is trying to get me into books on tape.

A New Media Paradigm. Part I

What puts me on this track is the recent announcement by NBC that they’re going to cut back on their programming from 22 hours of prime time a week to a Faux/CW like 17 by having Jay Leno cover 10 pm Monday to Friday.

Now not all my predictions come true, but I think this a horrible move, doomed to failure, and not just because I find Leno’s product inferior.

Back in the day I critically watched the Jay vs. Dave wars and Dave has at least the virtue of being funny and Leno not so much.  More than that, the original reason that The Tonight Show moved to Los Angeles was so that they could more easily book guests from the West Coast branch of the Film and Television industry.  No offense meant California (well maybe a little) but 99.99% of those people turn out to be vapid airheads who unscripted can’t put a complete sentence together and won’t talk about anything except their latest project and who they’re fucking, and that badly and incoherently.

Maybe it’s the price you pay for all the sunshine.

Not that David’s guests are that much better.  Intellectual rigor is not something you can expect from the media elite as a cursory perusal of Huffington Post will convince you.  Actors tend to be shallow self centered morons with no sense of shame, including News Actors (not really many reporters around any more).

And now we’re getting to the crux of the problem which is that the format is boring.  At least Rachel Ray and Martha Stewart cook, but most talk shows talk too much.  Who cares?  Jay, there’s a reason people go to sleep after the monologue and it’s not just because they’re old or have to get up in the morning.

Then there’s the repetitive nature of all of it.  Remember what happened to Who Wants to Be A Millionaire?  American Idol, Survivor, Deal or No Deal, CSI, Law and Order, they’re all the same all the time.  Nothing new ever happens.

They’ve just given up.

Even such a culture cannibalizing snooze fest as Happy Days seems like an innovative concept by comparison.  Instead of recycling nostalgia for 30 years ago we recycle it from last week.

My friends we are approaching peak TV.  Channel after channel is filled with stuff I’ve already seen or don’t want to watch in the first place.  And it’s a fundamental failure of the business model; they sell eyeballs and not only are they losing them by droves, but nobody is willing to pay for them anymore.

Their response is to downsize.  Cut the cost of production, worship efficiency, and stifle creativity.

This is a self reinforcing death spiral of deflation and depression.  If your product sucks make more of it cheaper, supply side entertainment.

That’s enough for now, but I expect I will revisit this subject.

Dow down 1000.

Here are the current Circuit Breaker Rules.

As you will certainly know by this time, the Senate has failed to invoke cloture on the Bridge Loan Bill by a 35 – 52 vote and Harry Reid has declared himself the failure he is and is adjourning the Senate for the holiday.

You can expect GM to declare bankruptcy by Monday and thousands of parts suppliers to do the same by Christmas.

The overnight markets in Asia are already tanking and you can expect selling pressure to move west with the dawn.  If Dow futures are not down over 400 points by opening bell I’ll eat my hat.

I expect it will go downhill from there.

Trading halts for 1 hour with a 1100 point drop before 2 pm.  If there is a 2200 point drop before 1 pm there will be a 2 hour halt.

If the DJIA loses 3350 points, regardless of time, the market will close.

This is a very real possibility.

If you have equity it’s too late to sell now, all you can do is hang on and see if things get better, but this is bad.

Very bad.

Late updates from Firedog Lake-

Auto Bill Fails: Market Bails By: Ian Welsh Thursday December 11, 2008 9:00 pm

White House May Just Lend Auto Companies the Money Through TARP By: Ian Welsh Thursday December 11, 2008 9:20 pm

Wire Business News Update below.

No words

The Stars Hollow Gazette

Madam Zelda!  Madam Zelda!

Has it only been 7 trading days?

11/20 Thursday -444.99 7,552.29
11/21 Friday +494.13 8,046.42
11/24 Monday +396.97 8,443.39
11/25 Tuesday +36.08 8,479.47
11/26 Wednesday +247.14 8,726.61
11/28 Friday +102.43 8,829.04
12/1 Monday -679.95 8,149.09

The Stars Hollow Gazette

So.  Seneca has exposed me for the horrible nag I am.  I hate to push him down with something this slight, but it will be Robyn and mishima if not me.

I kind of laugh at his concern because ‘centrist’ is a label I’ve always worn proudly, Armando and I used to joke about it.  Even ‘purist’ fails to wound me because I know the policies I advocate are hardly substantive, they are political and oriented toward electoral victory.

My shallowness is astounding.  My platform but 2 primary planks.

My prescription for Democratic Officeholders and Politicians is that they stand for fucking something, anything.  The reason people don’t vote for you is that you are cowards, weaklings, and liars.  They are right not to trust you.

On the other hand Republicans are shameless bullies and bigots, common thieves,  torturers, murderers, and war criminals.

My second plank is the Village, the blow dried air headed vacuous vacant Versailles access addict asskissing idiots who think they tell us what to think.

And that’s the power new media has.  To avert your eyeballs for an instant.

The TV business is uglier than most things.  It is normally perceived as some kind of cruel and shallow money trench through the heart of the journalism industry, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs, for no good reason.  There’s also a negative side.

As little effort as that takes, it has it’s effects.  They are terribly sensitive to negative popular opinion.  They can hardly stand to be confronted with facts in public debate.

You can smell the fear in the morning like coffee.  They hate us for a reason, and they should.  If we have excess energy we should expose them to others as the fools they are.  Show them our scorn and derision in concrete ways.

The reaction shows they are vulnerable, the business model is not working for them any more than it did for the Music Biz.  Even now giving live performances is more lucrative than airtime and who is advertiser supported after all?

And why are we doing it if revenue is down anyway?  Madison Avenue leads directly from Detroit down to Family Ford with the six cute kids a shilling, five new models, four finance programs, three months no payments, two SUVs.

And from NBC to Channel 3.

We know what you are.  We’re just negotiating the price.

Black Friday

Who wants to be long?

For stores, the holiday season may already be over

By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO, AP Retail Writer

Thu Nov 27, 4:33 am ET

Major department stores and mall-based chains have cut prices up to 70 percent to move out mounds of excess inventory stuck in the pipeline since the financial crisis hit in September and people snapped their wallets shut.

Big moves of merchandise happen every year – but usually after Christmas. This year stores are desperate to shed inventory even before Thanksgiving.

It wasn’t supposed to be this bad. Stores, which typically place orders about four to seven months in advance, had cautiously planned their holiday inventories about 15 percent below last year’s levels.

But because of the free fall in consumer spending, stores are now stuck with about 15 percent to 20 percent excess holiday inventory, estimated Burt P. Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group.

How bad will the season ultimately be for stores? Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Corp., expects total retail sales to fall 0.5 percent for November and December. That would be the first decline in holiday sales since 1982.

The problem for a retailer is that most of their capital is tied up in merchandise, most of which is ordered up to 6 months or even a year ahead of time.  Like everyone else they buy on credit and count on income from sales to pay off the loans when they come due.

This year, just like hedge funds, they are liquidating assets (inventory) in anticipation of margin calls and redemptions.

But Wait!

The Stars Hollow Gazette

This song is called Alice’s Restaurant, and it’s about Alice, and the restaurant, but Alice’s Restaurant is not the name of the restaurant, that’s just the name of the song, and that’s why I called the song Alice’s Restaurant.

Madam Zelda! Madam Zelda! Is it true this house is haunted?!

A Stars Hollow Gazette

SILENCE!!!  The spirits are about to speak…

You know, I don’t just spend my time railing at our craven capitulationist Congress and their blow dried Beltway butt kissing Bozo court stenographers.  No siree.  I reserve a certain amount of bile for our corporate criminal culture of greed is good conmen and thieves.

When last we looked in the crystal ball, 18 trading days ago, my prediction was grim-

I expect a rally in anticipation of rate reduction from the next Fed meeting.  I expect a rally after they confirm market expectations.

I expect the fundamentals to remain the same.

Look for big Friday sell offs, why be long over the weekend?  What should you do in the mean time?

I feel the spirit of Jim Cramer…

Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Buy at the dips and sell into strength.  This market will not be done dropping until it bottoms out on the intraday lows, 6K to 7K.  For long term investments look at dividends and p/es, if you have the cash and the time.

Scary.

I think that over the next couple of days we’re going to test the market lows.  We might start hitting those 6Ks I talked about.

I’ve heard some gloom and dooming on CNBC about how Dow 4K is ‘the Great Depression all over again’, but I don’t agree that things are that dire yet.  I expect some serious defict spending and it’s all good (some types are better than others of course).

Anyway, at some point earnings and dividends are going to get more attractive than just leaving your money in your mattress.  There will be a bottom.

If you are liquid then you will pick up some bargains in the long run, there is no reason to believe that in 2 or 3 years values won’t approach historic levels.  And by historic I mean historical average growth, not tulip market prices.

Should have bought potato futures.  At least you can eat them.

I don’t pretend economic wisdom, but I see patterns in the data.  I use the DJIA as a broad indicator.  I don’t claim poblano prescience or accuracy, but if you want to see some brightly colored tables join me below.

The Stars Hollow Gazette

File under things I just don’t get and yet can’t let go of.

So Atrios has this item tonight.

Umm…

That’s Luke Smith, and he’s played by an actor named Tommy Knight.  Chris Hayes is the Washington Editor of The Nation.  Outside of a superficial facial resemblance there is no connection at all.

Now I’d sure like to tell Duncan that The Sarah Jane Adventures is “a big, full-blooded drama; that nobody should ever think of it as ‘just’ a children’s programme.” but I’m not quite sure how to do it.

259 Comments and counting and they’re not nested and you can’t even search the Haloscan window.

How do these people communicate?

The Henry Ford

The Henry Ford

The Henry Ford, a National Historic Landmark, (also known as the Henry Ford Museum and Greenfield Village, and more formally as the Edison Institute), in the Metro Detroit suburb of Dearborn, Michigan, USA, is the nation’s “largest indoor-outdoor history museum” complex.

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