Tag: Greece

Cross posted from The Stars Hollow Gazette

I’m no expert on the bond market but I do know that when a bond interest rates rise, it is more expensive for the holder of those bonds to borrow money. That’s an over simplification as it pertains to the situation that has been developing with the Eurozone that is possibly on the verge of collapse due to the economic instability of Greece and, now, Italy. Of course, it is affecting market around the world. On Tuesday there was a massive sell off of all Eurozone bonds that is threatening the stability of the Eurozone. David Dayen explains:

Under current arrangements, the Eurozone doesn’t even have the money to save Italy. If the core countries start to lose their credit ratings and cannot afford to borrow, we’re really just done here. Spanish debt is also above the level where they would need a bailout, another troublesome sign.

About the only country on somewhat solid footing is Germany, and this has sowed resentment, particularly because of their domineering response to the crisis. Austerity for thee and not for me is bound to create a backlash.

This is all happening because the European Central Bank refuses to honor the “central bank” part of its name. This is dragging down all of Europe. Edward Harrison works through the issues in Italy, which is ground zero here.

   Italy needs to run a primary budget surplus (excluding interest payments) of about 5 percent of GDP, merely to keep its debt ratio constant at present yields. It won’t ever be able to do so.

   Therefore, yields for Italian bonds must come down or Italy is insolvent as it must roll over 300 billion euros of debt in the next year alone.

   Austerity is not going to bring Italian yields back down. First, Italian solvency is now in question and weak hands will sell. Moreover, investors in all sovereign debt now fear that they are unhedged due to the Greek non-default plan worked out in Brussels last month. As Marshall Auerback told me, any money manager with fiduciary responsibility cannot buy Italian debt or any other euro member sovereign debt after this plan.

   Conclusion: Italy will face a liquidity-induced insolvency without central bank intervention. Investors will sell Italian bonds and yields will rise as the liquidity crisis becomes a self-fulfilling spiral: higher yields begetting worsening macro fundamentals leading to higher default risk and therefore even higher yields.

Nobel Prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, mostly agrees with Harrison’s assessment of how the euro will end if the ECB doesn’t step in with a massive bail out and adds his thoughts:

I might place greater emphasis on the immediate channel through which falling sovereign bond prices force bank deleveraging, but we’re picking nits here.

And this is totally right:

   If the ECB writes the check, the economic and market outcomes are vastly different than if they do not. Your personal outlook as an investor, business person or worker will change dramatically for decades to come based upon this one policy choice and how well-prepared for it you are.

Crunch time. If prejudice and false notions of prudence prevail, the world is about to take a major change for the worse.

There are a number of factors here. Without the backing of Germany, the only Eurozone country with money, the ECB doesn’t have enough money to cover Italy’s debt and Germany’s participation hinges on their demand for austerity measures. The the elephant of a question then becomes what happens if the ECB doesn’t write the check? What if the ECB let’s Italy default, what then?

Harrison’s article at naked capitalism on the Italian default scenarios is long but well worth reading for the suggestions for investors on how they can protect themselves in either event.

  The financial crisis of the past week, that claimed the leaders of two European governments, came within a whisker of recreating the 2008 Finance Crisis, but was averted by timely action from European financial leaders.

  At least that is how it is being reported in the media.

 Prime ministers fell, markets shook and there were rumours that the eurozone would split up. But it survived – for now

 The stock market rallied on news of new austerity measures, a former central banker becoming leader of Greece’s new government, and agreements on a new bailout plan.

 The thing is, this was never a stock market problem. This is a credit market problem, and the credit markets don’t believe any of it. Most importantly, they don’t believe in the bailout.

 Sources said the EFSF had spent more than € 100m buying up its own bonds to help it achieve its funding target after the banks leading the deal were only able to find about €2.7bn of outside demand for the debt.

   The revelation will be seen as a major failure and a worrying sign of future buyers strike after EFSF officials and their bankers had spent recent weeks travelling the world attempting to persuade key investors, including China’s national wealth fund and Japanese government funds, to buy its bonds.

 To put this as plainly as possible: a central bank being forced to buy up the debt that it just issued, in order to hide the fact of the failure to find buyers for its debt, is the perfect example of a Ponzi scheme reaching its end game.

  Too often commentary on the European debt crisis has been like handicapping a horse race (“this country is leading the race to default, but this other nation is catching”).

  While interesting, it is useless in trying to figure out how this relates to the average person.

 The first thing you have to understand is who the players are and how they are connected.

   The next big shock to the world’s financial system could happen as soon as Monday morning.

  How do I know this? Because the world’s financial leaders are expecting something really bad, and have publicly announced their intentions of preventing the consequences of something that they have proven unable to fix.

 It started on Friday, when Germany gave up on Greece.

 Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is preparing plans to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the terms of its aid package and defaults, three coalition officials said…

  Greece is “on a knife’s edge,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in Berlin on Sept. 7, a report in parliament’s bulletin showed yesterday. If the government can’t meet the aid terms, “it’s up to Greece to figure out how to get financing without the euro zone’s help,” he later said in a speech to parliament.

 When it comes to unofficial leaks like this, I tend to fall back on the wisdom of Otto von Bismarck when he said, “Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.”

 Then, right on cue, both Greece and Germany officially denied it. Thus making it true.

 What is really scary is the two developments that immediately followed this news.

 The G7 stepped up and promised their support in defending the financial status quo.

 Central Banks stand ready to provide liquidity to banks as required. We will take all necessary actions to ensure the resilience of banking systems and financial markets.…

  Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely in regard to actions in exchange markets and will cooperate as appropriate.

 Why would they bother to announce this unless they suspected that people questioned either their resolve, or their ability?

 To conclude all these official declarations that “there is nothing to worry about” and “everything is under control”, the IMF also promised to step in if necessary.

 The International Monetary Fund will likely re-activate a $580 billion resource pool in coming weeks to ensure it has funds to help cover Europe’s worsening sovereign-debt crisis, according to several people close to the matter….

  According to the IMF, the pool of supplementary resources are only to be activated when “needed to forestall or cope with a threat to the international monetary system.”

 The IMF has been beefing up this fund since shortly before the European debt crisis reached this new crisis level. It’s almost as if they knew something like this was inevitable.

  The problem is that politics often works more slowly than bankers.

 The board of governors agreed in December to roughly double quotas from around $375 billion to around $750 billion. But out of the 187 member countries, only 17 have legally accepted the increase, including Japan, the U.K. and Korea. Most of the countries with the biggest quotas, such as the U.S., China and Germany, haven’t yet gone through the legal process, such as parliamentary or congressional approval, need to hand over their promised dues.

 While the American media focuses on opening week of football, handicapping the presidential race, celebrity gossip, reality TV, or talking about the latest electronic gadget, the financial markets are preparing for crisis in ways that we haven’t seen since early 2008.

  If the worst happens, the American public will be caught by surprise again because the news media failed us yet again.

  It’s taken a very long time, but the easily predictable implosion to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is finally approaching.

  The same day that thousands of protestors against austerity measures returned to the streets in Athens, the Greek bailout talks also collapsed.

 “I expect a hard default definitely before March, maybe this year, and it could come with this program review,” said a senior IMF economist who is keeping close tabs on the situation. “The chances for a second program are slim.”

 Europe’s financial leaders want Greece to cut its budget further in order to make up for the gap that has been caused by the deepening recession. Of course the cuts are making the fiscal gap worse by slowing the economy further.

  Meanwhile, yields on 1-year Greek bonds have hit 70%, a level so far above affordable that a Greek default is already priced into.

  One thing we can all agree upon is that the debt-ceiling stand-off in Washington is a totally manufactured “crisis”. It is a financial crisis of choice. If I was a little more cynical and Machiavellian, I would think they were trying to distract us away from a real financial crisis.

 In fact, there is a real financial crisis happening in Europe. Until a week ago it was all over the front pages – Greece’s default.

 Perhaps you heard something about a bailout of Greece. That news came out right about the time that Greece dropped from the headlines.

 Problem solved, right?

Wrong.

  The bailout plan almost immediately ran into problems.

For starters, the rating agencies downgraded Greek debt to default levels BECAUSE of the bail-out plan.

 Rating agency Moody’s has downgraded Greece’s credit rating from Caa1 to Ca after the deal brokered July 21 by European leaders that included voluntary losses taken by creditors…

  One thing we can all agree upon is that the debt-ceiling stand-off in Washington is a totally manufactured “crisis”. It is a financial crisis of choice. If I was a little more cynical and Machiavellian, I would think they were trying to distract us away from a real financial crisis.

 In fact, there is a real financial crisis happening in Europe. Until a week ago it was all over the front pages – Greece’s default.

 Perhaps you heard something about a bailout of Greece. That news came out right about the time that Greece dropped from the headlines.

 Problem solved, right?

Wrong.

  One thing we can all agree upon is that the debt-ceiling stand-off in Washington is a totally manufactured “crisis”. It is a financial crisis of choice. If I was a little more cynical and Machiavellian, I would think they were trying to distract us away from a real financial crisis.

 In fact, there is a real financial crisis happening in Europe. Until a week ago it was all over the front pages – Greece’s default.

 Perhaps you heard something about a bailout of Greece. That news came out right about the time that Greece dropped from the headlines.

 Problem solved, right?

Wrong.

  I was scanning the news today when I came across an article that caused me to say, “Damn! I’m going to be right again.”

 WASHINGTON — Debt ceiling negotiators think they’ve hit on a solution to address the debt ceiling impasse and the public’s unwillingness to let go of benefits such as Medicare and Social Security that have been earned over a lifetime of work: Create a new Congress…

  Legislation approved by the Super Congress — which some on Capitol Hill are calling the “super committee” — would then be fast-tracked through both chambers, where it couldn’t be amended by simple, regular lawmakers, who’d have the ability only to cast an up or down vote. With the weight of both leaderships behind it, a product originated by the Super Congress would have a strong chance of moving through the little Congress and quickly becoming law. A Super Congress would be less accountable than the system that exists today, and would find it easier to strip the public of popular benefits. Negotiators are currently considering cutting the mortgage deduction and tax credits for retirement savings, for instance, extremely popular policies that would be difficult to slice up using the traditional legislative process.

 I will let others address the Constitutionality of this new legislative body, and instead focus on a target of the budget cutting – retirement savings.