Tag: 4@4

1. As ek hornbeck has been documenting, the Dow has closed down more than 500 points on seven different days since September 15th. “Two weeks ago, the averages were down nearly half from their peak. Brokers report thousands of Americans are closing their accounts, fed up with a market that has made their 401(k) accounts look like 201(k)s.”

   Back in in 1996, the idiot Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman, said the stock market boom was due to “irrational exuberance”. So now, the CS Monitor asks has the reverse happened? Is the U.S. now stuck with irrational pessimism?

   Irrational? Does losing 1,250,000 jobs since September seem like cause for celebration? The NY Times reports the Jobless rate soars to 6.7% in November.

   With the economy deteriorating rapidly, the nation’s employers shed 533,000 jobs in November, the 11th consecutive monthly decline, the government reported Friday morning, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent.

   The decline, the largest one-month loss since December 1974, was fresh evidence that the economic contraction accelerated in November, promising to make the current recession, already 12 months old, the longest since the Great Depression. The previous record was 16 months, in the severe recessions of the mid-1970s and early 1980s…

   The report on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics included sharp upward revisions in job-loss figures for October (to 320,000, from the previously reported 240,000) and for September (to 403,000, from 284,000).

   And 6.7% is not the real jobless rate as BruceMcF hopefully will explain again at some point. The real number of unemployed Americans is significantly higher.

   In addition to increasing unemployment, the Washington Post reports Mortgage distress reaches record highs. One in 10 American homeowners are behind on their payments or in foreclosure, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

   America was allowed to rot from within. What Americans are expressing now isn’t pessimism, it is the profound realization that our country has made a colossal mistake that no one really knows how to fix.

   Americans need jobs. Right now the military is hiring. Over the weekend, the Washington Post reported the Downturn drives military rolls up.

   The economic downturn and rising unemployment rate are making the military a more attractive option, Pentagon officials say… Since the military became an all-volunteer force in 1973, recruiters have generally struggled in times of private-sector job growth and done well during recessions.

   The Army has met it’s recruiting goals for the past three years and “during that time, the ranks of the unemployed grew by 2.8 million, to 10.1 million.” So we have a de facto economic draft. Enlist or starve is not an honest way to build an all-volunteer force.

Four at Four continues with Obama and McCain campaign fundraising, military base pollution, and update from Iraq and Afghanistan.

1. The Dallas Morning News reports the Bushes confirm purchase of Dallas home in Preston Hollow. The White House confirmed the Bushes will be moving to Dallas and keeping the former pig farm in Crawford as a prop when W wants to clear some brush.

   Bush’s “accountant in Midland, Robert McCleskey, purchased the house at 10141 Daria Place as a trustee on Oct. 3, according to records on file with the Dallas Central Appraisal District, which values the home at $2,078,660.”

   The new Bush House was built in 1959 and has 8,501 square feet of living space, including 896 sq ft of “servants quarters”. The house sits on 1.13 acres and has 4 bedrooms, 4½ baths, and most importantly for W — a wet bar.

   The Bushes are rumored to have purchased the property next door, which was listed at $1.6 million, as well.

Four at Four continues with prorogue in Canada, the Arctic’s tipping point, and solar power.

1. Shame on the United States. Spiegel Online reports the U.S. still shuns a cluster bomb ban. “It is being hailed as the most significant piece of international humanitarian law for a decade, but the ban on cluster bombs to be signed by over 100 nations still lacks a certain sting due to some notable absences.” Namely the United States, Russia, and China.

   Since 1965 it is estimated that more than 13,000 people have been killed or wounded by the deadly bomblets…

   Their lethal legacy will continue for years to come, as proved by the continuing casualties suffered in the South East Asian country of Laos. The United States dropped 260 million cluster bombs there between 1964 and 1973, and since then they have killed an estimated 11,000 people. Children in particular are attracted to the small shiny objects, often assuming they are toys.

   Meanwhile, the NY Times reports Afghanistan says it will sign cluster bomb treaty. “In a surprising last-minute change of policy, the government of President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan agreed on Wednesday to join about 100 nations signing a treaty banning the use of cluster munitions, Afghan officials said.”

   “It’s a huge deal because no one here was not expecting it,” said Marc Garlasco, senior military analyst for Human Right Watch, who was at the event in Oslo. Mr. Garlasco said that upon hearing the news, a group of Afghan survivors of cluster bombs, most of them in wheelchairs or on crutches, burst into tears.

   Afghanistan “joins Laos and Lebanon among the most affected nations by these weapons, saying these horrific weapons must be outlawed,” Mr. Garlasco said. “This is a huge step for Afghanistan towards policy independence from the United States.”

   Why is it a surprise that a country so harmed by cluster bombs wish to see their use banned? What is surprising is the lack of moral outcry in the United States that our country is not a signatory. The ban is only partial for it even allows small 10-bomblet cluster bombs.

   Disarmament activists are already looking beyond the Bush administration and are calling on President-elect Barack Obama to sign the cluster munitions treaty and send it for ratification soon after he takes office. For good measure, they want Mr. Obama to sign a 1997 treaty banning the use and sale of anti-personnel landmines.

Four at Four continues with Iraq withdrawal, drones on the U.S.-Canada border, and college tuition.

1. The Washington Post reports Nuclear or Biological Attack Called Likely.

   The odds that terrorists will soon strike a major city with weapons of mass destruction are now better than even, a bipartisan congressionally mandated task force concludes in a draft study that warns of growing threats from rogue states, nuclear smuggling networks and the spread of atomic know-how in the developing world.

   The sobering assessment of such threats, due for release as early as today, singled out Pakistan as a grave concern because of its terrorist networks, history of instability and arsenal of several dozen nuclear warheads. The report urged the incoming Obama administration to take “decisive action” to reduce the likelihood of a devastating attack.

   “No mission could be timelier,” says the draft report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, which spent six months preparing an assessment for Congress and the new president-elect. It adds: “In our judgment, America’s margin of safety is shrinking, not growing.”

   The report, ordered by Congress last year, concludes that terrorists are more likely to obtain materials for a biological attack than to buy or steal nuclear weapons. But it says the nuclear threat is growing rapidly, in part because of the increasing global supply of nuclear material and technology.

   Another Bush administration failure. Hopefully, Congress and Obama will take positive, corrective action before its too late.

Four at Four continues with news from the UNFCCC, James Jones connection to climate change deniers, and Europe’s plan to save the honeybee.

1. Like there was any doubt, but the NY Times reports “It’s Official: Recession Started One Year Ago“.

   The evidence of a downturn has been widespread for months: slower production, stagnant wages and hundreds of thousands of lost jobs. But the nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research, charged with making the call for the history books, waited until now to weigh in.

   In a statement released Monday, the members of the group’s Business Cycle Dating Committee – made up of seven prominent economists, most from the academic sector – said that the economy entered a recession in December 2007.

2. The LA Times reports Bombs kill at least 34 people in Iraq. Police recruits in Baghdad and U.S. and Iraqi security forces in Mosul were targeted.

   The monthly death toll for November, including civilians, police and soldiers, was 339, compared to 278 in October, according to figures from the ministries of health and interior. The number is far lower than for the month of November last year, when the death toll from bombings, shootings and other attacks linked to Iraq’s war was 608.

   The NY Times has the following quote in their coverage of the bombing:

   “If you dare to tell the truth, this is because of the American forces,” said a man who refused to give his name. “Their convoy went to the end of the street and the suicide bomber came right then. All of our troubles are because of the Americans.”

   At a press conference today to unveils his national security team, President-elect Barack Obama said “said he was sticking to his goal of removing American combat troops from Iraq within 16 months, which he called ‘the right time frame,’ and that this would be accomplished with safety for the troops and security for the Iraqi people.”

Four at Four continues with the climate talks in Poland and Pakistani-Indian tension.

1. The NY Times reports 5 Hostages Die as Mumbai Siege Persists.

   As the crisis in Mumbai approached its third day, Indian commandos fought running battles with militants on Friday, still struggling to end the murderous assault on India’s financial capital that has shaken the nation and raised perilous regional tensions with neighboring Pakistan.

   Two Americans were confirmed killed, among a total of at least eight foreigners who the Indian authorities said had died during the attacks. In addition, five bodies of Israeli citizens were removed from a Jewish center, Chabad House, after Indian commando units stormed the attackers inside the building, Israeli officials said. The terrorists had executed the hostages during the commando raid, the Indian military said.

   Shortly before night settled over the stricken city, the police said the death toll had reached 143 with the discovery of 24 bodies in the luxury Oberoi hotel, where the police had finally taken control and many guests were set free on Friday.

   Spiegel contributes with Struggling for control in the Mumbai war zone. Mumbai is India’s most progressive city. “Just days ago, Colaba, [a part of the city,] was still a relaxed café and restaurant quarter, a favorite in Mumbai, India’s most progressive city. Now, it is a war zone.” The “ongoing violence has the population wary and afraid. And nobody knows how it will end.”

   A few people in my circles are asking what if this happened in the United States?

Below the fold is a smorgasbord of five more Four at Four stories.

1. The Guardian reports Terrorist gunmen are holed up in Mumbai hotels. “About 10 to 12 gunmen remain holed up with hostages inside two Mumbai hotels and a Jewish centre, a top Indian general said today. Major General RK Huda told New Delhi Television that the rest of the gunmen appeared to have been killed or captured.” 125 people have been killed and more than 325 wounded.

   The Hindu reports the Indian Army rushes in reinforcements ahead of “final push”. “The Army personnel, forming part of the present deployment of around five columns in terror-hit south Mumbai areas, has got a boost with the arrival of the fresh batch from Pune and Nashik… ‘The flushing out operations at these hotels, being undertaken jointly with National Security Guards (NSG) may be over sooner than expected were it not for our endeavour to ensure that there is no collateral damage,’ the sources said.”

   The NY Times updates an account, reporting that Indian forces take command of two posh hotels. “Indian commandos scoured through the flame and wreckage of two posh hotels Thursday, searching for survivors and battling bands of gunmen who unleashed two days of chaos here in India’s commercial capital. A third group of gunmen, the remnants of well-organized squads of attackers, remained holed up in a Jewish community center.”

   The LA Times reports Al Qaeda is just one suspect in India terrorist attacks. “Experts cautioned that it was too early to fix responsibility for the coordinated attacks that killed dozens of people at a pair of luxury hotels, two hospitals, a train station and an upscale restaurant. They said the group that claimed responsibility, the Deccan Mujahedin, was unknown.”

Four at Four continues with updates from Iraq and Afghanistan, food prices, and Barack Obama’s transition.

1. The LA Times reports the Iraq parliament delays vote on security agreement. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was unsure he had enough votes to pass the agreement to allow the United States to stay in Iraq for another three years past the December 31, 2008 deadline. Sunni lawmakers have been pressing Maliki’s Shiite-led government for concessions in exchange for their support. The vote is seen as a referendum on the Maliki administration.

   The delay, coming after days of political bargaining and cajoling, underscored Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s concerns about passing the controversial Status of Forces Agreement without a wide margin. The legislature’s main Shiite Muslim and Kurdish blocs support the deal, virtually ensuring it would win the 138 votes needed to pass the 275-seat parliament. But Shiite Muslim leaders want to ensure sufficient Sunni votes to guarantee its legitimacy in the eyes of Iraq’s Sunnis.

   As a result, what began as a debate over the future of U.S. forces here has evolved into a political showdown reflective of the resentment, sectarian distrust and grudges among Iraqi lawmakers. The main Sunni bloc, Tawafiq, led the way in using the security agreement as a bargaining chip for getting its own demands met, but smaller political factions followed.

   By today, a host of mainly Sunni parties were demanding that the pact be accompanied by legislation encompassing a range of demands. They included amnesty for U.S.-held detainees, who are mainly Sunni; the elimination of a special court established to try figures in Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-led regime for crimes committed on the regime’s behalf; and the lifting of restrictions that prevent former members of Hussein’s Baath Party from holding high-level government jobs.

Four at Four continues with Obama’s national security team, a possible coup in Thailand, and Greenland’s greater self-rule.

1. The NY Times reports the U.S. unveils new programs to ease credit.

   The Federal Reserve said that it would buy up to $600 billion in mortgage-backed assets from the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The agency would also buy up to $100 billion in debt directly from the companies and up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities…

   Separately, the Fed and Treasury Department announced a $200 billion program to ease commercial lending on debts like student loans, car loans or business loans. The Fed would lend up to $200 billion to holders of asset-backed securities supported by car loans, credit card loans, student loans, and business loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.

   The NY Times also reports the Outlook grows more dire for the housing market. The scarcity of credit, making home loans difficult to get, are continuing to hurt the housing market. “Of the sales that did go through in October, nearly half were the result of a sale after a foreclosure. And sellers were forced to lower prices again, sending home values down at a record pace.”

   “Prices declined in September in all 20 cities surveyed in the Case-Shiller report, with San Francisco and Phoenix suffering the biggest drops… The report also suggested that conditions in the housing market were worsening” with house price drops accelerating.

2. The Washington Post reports President-elect Barack Obama picks Peter Orszag to head the Office of Management and Budget. “Obama said that Orszag will take the lead in scouring the federal budget, which is straining under record deficits, with an eye toward eliminating programs that do not work.”

   Orszag is currently the “director of the Congressional Budget Office, where he oversees a staff of 235 people who produce nonpartisan analyses of economic and policy issues. Orszag is widely respected for his work on how Americans receive medical care. Unlike many of his predecessors, who hewed closely to pure number-crunching, Orszag has carved out a niche as a leading international thinker on health policy.”

   In an essay in September, I wrote about Orszag’s assessment that “The nation is on an unsustainable fiscal course.”

Four at Four continues with an update from Iraq, Brazil sending troops after a violent protest by Amazon loggers, and an interesting op-ed on Tibet.

1. The NY Times reports President-elect Barack Obama unveils the team to tackle the ‘Historic’ crisis in the economy. Obama will nominate to head the Treasury Department, Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, and to lead the White House Economic Council, Larry Summers, Harvard economist a former Clinton Treasury Secretary.

   Obama also said “he had chosen Christina D. Romer to head his Council of Economic Advisers and Melody Barnes as director of his White House Domestic Policy Council. Ms. Romer is an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, while Ms. Barnes is a longtime aide to Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts.”

   “While we can’t underestimate the challenges we face,” Obama said, “we also can’t underestimate our capacity to overcome them to summon that spirit of determination and optimism that has always defined us, and move forward in a new direction to create new jobs, reform our financial system, and fuel long-term economic growth.”

2. The Kansas City Star reports Economic crisis creates a cultural divide between ‘ants’ and ‘grasshoppers’.

   Two-and-a-half millennia before anyone thought of bundling toxic derivatives, Aesop knew what bugged people.

   The foolhardy grasshopper in the ancient Greek fable “The Ant and the Grasshopper” enjoyed his summer singing while the ant worked in earnest, “toiling and moiling” to store up food. Winter came and the grasshopper, starving, took to begging from the ant colony.

   Even today, “it goes to the very marrow of American society,” said Randall Miller, a scholar of political and cultural history. “Work hard. Take responsibility for yourself. Don’t expect others to bail you out for your own bad decisions…

   “But who’s the government going to help in this economic mess? The grasshoppers!

   “I sense something building, a cultural phenomenon. A lot of resentment has surfaced, and the people in Washington are feeling it.”

   Wall Street is not just one grasshopper, but rather it is a plague of locusts.

Four at Four continues with an update on the wars of the United States and a look at Russia’s new presence in Latin America.

1. With 60 days left of his _pResidency, The Guardian reports Bush is hellbent on tearing apart protection for America’s wilderness. The “White House is working methodically to weaken or reverse an array of regulations that protect America’s wilderness from logging or mining operations, and compel factory farms to clean up dangerous waste.”

   Here are some of the most far-reaching regulatory changes made so far:

   • Industrial-size pig, cow and chicken farms can disregard the Clean Water Act and air pollution controls.

   • The interior department can approve development such as mining or logging without consulting wildlife managers about their impact.

   • Restrictions will be eased so power plants can operate near national parks and wilderness areas.

   • Pollution controls on new power plants will be downgraded.

   • Mountain-top mine operators could dump waste into rivers and streams.

   • 2m acres of land in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado opened to development of oil shales, the dirtiest fuel on Earth.

   The LA Times weighs in with Bush angers environmentalists with last-minute rule changes. “Researchers who track ‘midnight regulations’ say Bush pushed 53 of them through the federal Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the last three weeks, nearly double the pace of Clinton at this point in his final year.”

   Obama can summarily reverse anything not enacted by the time he takes office, a lesson Bush learned by blocking several of Clinton’s last-ditch environmental measures, such as a ban on road-building in national forests.

   “The Bush administration is trying to prevent Obama from doing to it what it did to Clinton,” said Matt Madia, a regulatory policy analyst for OMB Watch, a Washington-based watchdog group.

   Under federal rules, it takes 60 days to enact an economically “significant” regulation, which carries an estimated impact of $100 million or more. Other regulations take 30 days.

   Pollute baby, pollute!

Four at Four continues with protests in Iraq about 3 more years of U.S. occupation, an interview with the Obama logo designer, and Martian glaciers.

1. The LA Times reports Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. Activists are uneasy that many “short-list candidates for top security posts backed the decision to go to war.”

   “Obama ran his campaign around the idea the war was not legitimate, but it sends a very different message when you bring in people who supported the war from the beginning,” said Kelly Dougherty, executive director of the 54-chapter Iraq Veterans Against the War.

   The activists — key members of the coalition that propelled Obama to the White House — fear he is drifting from the antiwar moorings of his once-longshot presidential candidacy. Obama has eased the rigid timetable he had set for withdrawing troops from Iraq, and he appears to be leaning toward the center in his candidates to fill key national security posts.

   Obama expects criticism of his appointees he is considering for his national security team, including hawks like Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), and Richard Lugar (R-IN). Vice President-elect Joe Biden also supported the 2002 Iraq war resolution.

   Kevin Martin, executive director of the group Peace Action, said that although Obama had campaigned as an agent of change, the president-elect is “a fairly centrist guy” who appears to be choosing from the Democratic foreign policy establishment — “and nobody from outside it.”

   “So, in the short term, we’re going to be disappointed,” he said. “They may turn out to be all pro-war, or at least people who were pro-war in the beginning.” …

   “There’s so much Obama hero worship, we’re having to walk this line where we can’t directly criticize him,” he said.

   I think it is important to remember that Obama said: “I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars.” So my question is and has been — when are wars smart?

Four at Four continues with the six men ordered released from Guantánamo, a probe finds that, shock, the CIA lies to Congress, and the woolly mammoth genome.