Tag: 4@4

1. The New York Times reports As jobs vanish and prices rise, food stamp use nears record. “Driven by a painful mix of layoffs and rising food and fuel prices, the number of Americans receiving food stamps is projected to reach 28 million in the coming year, the highest level since the aid program began in the 1960s… Eligibility is determined by a complex formula, but basically recipients must have few assets and incomes below 130 percent of the poverty line, or less than $27,560 for a family of four.”

   The Washington Post reports the States are hit hard by the economic downturn.

   State budgets have been hit hard by a worsening national economy, including rising costs for energy and health care. In addition, fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis — declining home sales, deflated property values and mounting foreclosures — has caused a slide in states’ anticipated tax receipts. Revenue from property taxes, sales taxes and real estate transfer taxes is affected.

   At least half of the nation’s states are facing budget shortfalls, some of them severe, and policymakers in most of the states affected are proposing and passing often-painful measures to trim costs and close the gaps. Spending on schools is being slashed, after-school programs are being curtailed and teachers are being notified of potential layoffs. Health-care assistance is being cut for the elderly, the disabled and the poor. Some government offices, such as motor vehicle department locations, will start closing on weekends, and some state workers are receiving pink slips.

   Some analysts worry that the impact is being felt disproportionately by the most needy.

   Americans are hurting while the rich bankers on Wall Street get taxpayer hand outs.

2. The Washington Post reports Sadr tells his militia to cease hostilities. “Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his followers Sunday to lay down their arms and end six days of clashes against U.S. and Iraqi forces if the government agrees to release detainees and give amnesty to Sadr’s fighters, among other demands. But after the statement, mortar attacks continued in Baghdad and Basra, and violence persisted in many pockets of the country… An Iraqi military adviser in Basra said the Mahdi Army seemed to have decreased its presence on the street, but that government crackdown on the city was continuing, with the military striking targets and making arrests.” Moqtada al-Sadr has won his stand off with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Oh, and McClatchy Newspapers reports that an Iranian general played key role in Iraq cease-fire. “Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Qods (Jerusalem) brigades of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and signed an agreement with Sadr, which formed the basis of his statement Sunday, members of parliament said.” Power has shifted away from the Bush administration’s puppet government in Iraq. Now how long will it take for Bushites to recognize the paradigm change?

   Meanwhile, Spiegel reports Baghdad’s Green Zone Under Attack. “The high-security Green Zone, home to the Iraqi parliament, the American embassy and military forces, was considered the last bastion of safety in war-torn Iraq. Now it too is under attack.” But you have to agree with me that the “surge” is working, right?

3. The Los Angeles Times reports that McCain’s health plan fails the test. “Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of former Democratic presidential contender John Edwards, said she and John McCain have one thing in common: ‘Neither one of us would be covered by his health policy.’ … Under McCain’s plan, insurance companies ‘wouldn’t have to cover preexisting conditions like melanoma and breast cancer,’ she said.”

   Elizabeth Edwards said only universal healthcare would resolve one of the problems plaguing the healthcare system — its soaring cost.

   “Until we get rid of the need for hospitals and other providers to cover the costs of people who are not covered . . . the overall cost is not going to go down,” she said. “The only real cost savings comes when you have universality.”

4. The Guardian reports Tidal power comes to Northern Ireland. “As SeaGen – the world’s first and largest commercial scale tidal stream energy generator – was laid down in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, yesterday the company behind it claimed this form of tidal power has the potential to supply up to 10% of the UK’s energy within a decade. If successful, the system, which harnesses the power of aggressive tidal currents, could be replicated across not only Britain but other parts of the world, according to its manufacturers, Marine Current Turbines.”

   We’ll see if the British government can stay focused on the tidal power experiment and not get distracted by the nuclear lobby.

1. Okay, what’s wrong with this scenario? From the LA Times: “Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki today extended a deadline for militiamen battling government troops to disarm as fighters showed no signs of ending a standoff with Iraqi forces. U.S. forces intervened in the battle in the southern city of Basra by dropping two bombs on militia positions overnight. A British military spokesman in the city, Maj. Tom Holloway, said that Iraq had requested airstrikes on the targets and that American jets happened to be in the vicinity and responded.”

   Which of these headlines means the “surge” is working?
   ^{Answer beneath the fold.}

   • NY Times: Coalition Forces Drawn Into Basra Fighting

   • Washington Post: U.S. Appears to Take Lead in Fighting in Baghdad

   • LA Times: U.S. joins Basra fight; Maliki extends deadline

   • The Guardian: American jets attack Basra

2. The New York Times reports Destruction of torture tapes hovers over “detainee” cases. “When officers from the Central Intelligence Agency destroyed hundreds of hours of videotapes documenting harsh interrogations in 2005, they may have believed they were freeing the government and themselves from potentially serious legal trouble. But nearly four months after the disclosure that the tapes were destroyed, the list of legal entanglements for the C.I.A., the Defense Department and other agencies is only growing longer. In addition to criminal and Congressional investigations of the tapes’ destruction, the government is fighting off challenges in several major terrorism cases and a raft of prisoners’ legal claims that it may have destroyed evidence.”

3. The Los Angeles Times reports Warming felt more in Western U.S. “The American West is heating up faster than any other region of the United States, and more than the Earth as a whole, according to a new analysis of 50 scientific studies. For the last five years, from 2003 through 2007, the global climate averaged 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than its 20th century average. During the same period, 11 Western states averaged 1.7 degrees warmer, the analysis reported.”

   The report reveals “the growing consensus among scientists who study the West that climate change is no longer an abstraction,” said Bradley H. Udall of the University of Colorado, whose work was cited in the study. “The signs are everywhere.” …

   According to Udall, the data suggest that the trend will accelerate — with the West warming about 1 1/2 times faster than the global average. Martin Hoerling, a NOAA meteorologist, has predicted that the West could heat up as much as 5 degrees by mid-century. In Alaska, the annual mean air temperature has risen 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over the last three decades.

4. Think your job stinks? The Oregonian reports Testing what sea lions eat isn’t for the faint of nose. “As if prepping for a delicate operation, Sarah Libert slips her hands into a pair of green surgeon’s gloves. She arranges sterile test tubes on a laboratory bench and spoons up a bit of the unlikely object of her studies. It’s sea lion dung. About 10 pounds of the stuff sits neatly packaged in sandwich bags in her lab at Portland State University. ‘I have to mix it up first so I get a good sample,’ Libert says. ‘Here’s where the smell starts coming out.’ The odor hangs thickly in the enclosed room.” What some people will do to earn a graduate degree. Amazing!

1. Thousands in Baghdad Protest Basra Assault
   By James Glanz and Graham Bowley, The New York Times

   Thousands of supporters of the powerful Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia took to the streets of Baghdad on Thursday to protest the Iraqi Army’s assault on the southern port city of Basra, as intense fighting continued there for a third day.

   In Basra, there seemed to be no breakthrough in the fighting by either side; as much as half of the city remained under militia control, hospitals in some parts of the city were reported full, and the violence was continuing to spread. There were clashes reported all over the city and in locations 12 miles south of Basra…

   As a possible sign of the rising instability in the region, saboteurs blew up one of Iraq’s two main oil export pipelines from Basra, Reuters reported. The oil pipelines were regular targets for insurgents earlier in the Iraqi conflict, but Thursday’s sabotage was the first time for several years the southern oil supply route has been disrupted, and oil prices rose briefly after the attack…

   Mahdi Army commanders said Thursday that the cease-fire was still intact but said that if the Basra assault continues and their grievances are not addressed then they would follow the protests with a period of civil disobedience and after that they would take “appropriate next steps,” without saying what those steps would be.

2. U.S. Steps Up Unilateral Strikes in Pakistan
   By Robin Wright and Joby Warrick, Washington Post

   The United States has escalated its unilateral strikes against al-Qaeda members and fighters operating in Pakistan’s tribal areas, partly because of anxieties that Pakistan’s new leaders will insist on scaling back military operations in that country, according to U.S. officials…

   A senior U.S. official called it a ‘shake the tree’ strategy… The campaign is not designed to capture bin Laden before Bush leaves office, administration officials said. “It’s not a blitz to close this chapter,” said a senior[anonymous] official…

   Senior officials in Pakistan’s leading parties are now warning that such unilateral attacks — including the Predator strikes launched from bases near Islamabad and Jacobabad in Pakistan — could be curtailed…

   Yet despite a series of strikes, some U.S. military officers and experts question whether the strategy will be effective and worth its political costs… Local politicians also complain that the strikes only encourage militants to undertake retaliatory actions in urban areas…

   U.S. strategy could backfire if missiles take innocent lives. “The [tribal] Pashtuns have a saying: ‘Kill one person, make 10 enemies,’ ” [Thomas H. Johnson, a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School,] said. “You might take out a bad guy in one of these strikes, but you might also be creating more foot soldiers. This is a war in which the more people you kill, the faster you lose.“

Four at Four continues below the fold with a look at the U.S. supplying 40-year-old arms to Afghanistan and John McCain’s abysmal environmental record.

1. The supply-side economics has had three decades of failure, but yet the zombie Republicans, of which John McCain is one, want to revive it with a shock to the sinking U.S. economy. The New York Times reports on A political comeback: supply-side economics. “‘What really happens is that the economy grows more vigorously when you lower tax rates,’ [lied] Kevin Hassett, an adviser to the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain”. But in reality, “even with a growing economy, …the promised boon in tax revenue never materialized.”

   Since 2001, the annual per capita revenue from income taxes fell 1 percent under President Bush even though tax collections picked up sharply starting in 2005. The budget surplus Mr. Bush inherited turned into a deficit.

   The rich want more tax cuts because Bush’s high taxes encourage them to scheme to avoid paying taxes. Not satisfied with extracting most of the wealth from the middle class, the rich want more of our money.

   Now the supply-siders single out the wealthiest Americans and argue that because they have so many ways to shelter their money from taxes, the incentive to declare more taxable income is much greater when tax rates are lowered than it is for the less well-to-do…

   Even in hard times, the incentive from a tax cut is particularly strong among the wealthy, supply-siders say. A drop of four or five percentage points in the top tax rate of these households saves them tens of millions of dollars. Above all, the supply-siders say, less money will be wasted on accountants and lawyers hired to find ways to dodge taxes when the rates were higher. These outlays will be put to more productive use.

   More productive use? Like Dubai real estate, luxury yachts, and electing Republicans.

2. McClatchy Newspapers report that Iraq fighting is worst in months and Maliki has issued an ultimatum.

   Amid heavy clashes between government forces and Shiite Muslim militants in Baghdad and the southern port city of Basra, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki issued an ultimatum Wednesday demanding that the militias surrender their weapons within 72 hours. Radical cleric Muqtada al Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia is a prime target of the government offensive, responded by demanding that Maliki leave Basra.

   U.S. forces joined Iraqi troops in Baghdad to fight Mahdi Army militants… The city’s fortified Green Zone sustained a third round of intense mortar fire beginning at 5:30 a.m. that seriously injured three U.S. government employees, according to a statement from the U.S. Embassy. A mortar round struck near Maliki’s office…

   Maliki stipulated in his ultimatum that the militants would be spared if they surrendered their weapons within 72 hours. As he spoke, Sadr called for calm, asking Maliki to leave the Mahdi Army-dominated oil hub of Basra and send a parliamentary delegation to solve the crisis through dialogue, Sadr spokesman Hassan al Zargani said from Tehran, Iran.

3. New and improved Police State™ is coming to a city near year. Reuters reports Spy-in-the-sky drone sets sights on Miami. “Miami police could soon be the first in the United States to use cutting-edge, spy-in-the-sky technology to beef up their fight against crime… If use of the drone wins Federal Aviation Administration approval after tests, the Miami-Dade Police Department will start flying the 14-pound (6.3 kg) drone over urban areas with an eye toward full-fledged employment in crime fighting… Taking their lead from the U.S. military, which has used drones in Iraq and Afghanistan for years, law enforcement agencies across the country have voiced a growing interest in using drones for domestic crime-fighting missions.”

4. For March Madness, the Star Tribune reports on Coop Dreams! “Chickens aren’t just for barnyards anymore. Back-yard coops are popping up in cities and suburbs nationwide as more urbanites decide that raising their own eggs is a good thing. But some of their neighbors aren’t so sure… Back-yard chicken coops are hatching in cities and suburbs all over the country, from New York to Seattle, and a growing array of books and websites are offering advice and support… Because chickens blur the line between pets and livestock, communities have widely varying policies on urban fowl… Some cities that frown on urban fowl are under pressure to become more chicken-friendly… Roosters, which can wake the neighbors with their crowing or be used for illegal cockfighting, are more controversial than hens… Other complaints about urban chickens range from odor to landscape damage.”

1. Well at first this sounded good on ‘paper’, but then the nitty gritty details are looked at. The Los Angeles Times reports Supreme Court rejects Bush’s claim on death cases.

   The Supreme Court dealt President Bush a defeat today and ruled that he does not have the “unilateral authority” to force state officials to comply with international treaties.

   Chief Justice John G. Roberts said the Constitution gives the president the power “to execute the laws, not make them.” Unless Congress passes a law to enforce a treaty, the president usually cannot do it on his own, Roberts said.

   The case decided today arose from an unusual dispute and an unexpected intervention by Bush. But the justices used it to make a strong statement about the limits of presidential power…

   In today’s 6-3 decision, … Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony M. Kennedy, Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr. joined Roberts’ opinion. And Justice John Paul Stevens concurred in the result.

   The dissenters, led by Justice Stephen G. Breyer, took the view that treaties become part of American law and must therefore be followed by state and federal officials.

   So, this undoes one Vienna Convention, so is this the first stab at undoing the Geneva Conventions and other treaties?

2. The New York Times reports of a Cool reception for U.S. envoys in Pakistan. “The American officials also met with Nawaz Sharif, another bitter opponent of President Musharraf and the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, the party that won the second biggest share of seats in Parliament in the recent elections. Mr. Negroponte is scheduled later to meet [Prime Minister] Gillani and Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of Ms. Bhutto and now a leader of her party.”

   Mr. Sharif had a strong message for the visiting officials on American pressure to fight the Islamic extremists. “It cannot be that while wishing to ensure peace for others our country is turned into a killing field,” Mr. Sharif said at a news briefing on Tuesday afternoon. “We want peace in America, but we also want a peaceful Pakistan.”

   Referring to their discussion of plans to open talks with the militants, Mr. Sharif said: “I told them that situation has changed now. There is no more one-man show. Parliament has come into being, and the Parliament will decide all policies. No individual today can give a commitment on anything.”

   I guess “cool” didn’t mean totally “awesome”.

3. The Guardian reports 40% of Afghan aid returns to donor countries, says report.

   Afghanistan is being deprived of $10bn (£5bn) of promised aid, and 40% of the money that has been delivered was spent on corporate profits and consultancy fees, according to a hard-hitting report by aid agencies released today.

   The failure of western donors to keep their promises, compounded by corruption and inefficiency, is undermining the prospects for peace in Afghanistan, it warns.

   Civil aid programmes are a fraction of what is spent by America, Britain and other countries on military operations there. Much of the money earmarked for aid is diverted to political or military purposes.

   The report by Acbar, an alliance of international aid agencies working in the country, including Oxfam, Christian Aid, Islamic Relief and Save the Children, says the international community has pledged $25bn to Afghanistan since 2001 but only $15bn has been delivered.

4. Whoopsy-Daisy! Here we go again, the Washington Post reports the Pentagon admits mistaken arms shipment to Taiwan.

   The U.S. Air Force mistakenly shipped fuses that are used in nuclear weapons to Taiwan in 2006, believing the crates contained helicopter batteries, officials at the Pentagon announced this morning.

   The error — undetected by the United States until last week, despite repeated inquiries by Taiwan — raises questions about how carefully the Pentagon safeguards its weapons systems. It also exposes the United States to criticism from China, a staunch opponent of a militarized Taiwan.

   Pentagon officials said Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has launched a full investigation. The devices — which, when attached to a missile, help launch the detonating process — have been returned to the United States, and President Bush has been briefed.

   First accidentally flying nuclear weapons across the United States and now accidently sending detonators for nuclear weapons to Taiwan. Oy vey!

1. The Los Angeles Times reports Terrorism money is still flowing. “The U.S.-led effort to choke off financing for Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups is foundering because setbacks at home and abroad have undermined the Bush administration’s highly touted counter-terrorism weapon… The most serious problems are fractures and mistrust within the coalition of nations that the United States admits it needs to target financiers of terrorism and to stanch the flow of funding from wealthy donors to extremist causes… Also, the most deadly terrorist attacks since Sept. 11, 2001, have cost so little — often less than $10,000 — that they are virtually impossible to detect by following a money trail.”

2. The Washington Post reports Fallujah’s fragile security flows from Hussein-era tactics. Meet Col. Faisal Ismail al-Zobaie, Fallujah’s chief of police.

   The U.S. military showcases Fallujah as a model city where U.S. policies are finally paying off and is spending hundreds of millions of dollars in the region to promote the rule of law and a variety of nation-building efforts.

   But the security that has been achieved here is fragile, the result of harsh tactics recalling the rule of Saddam Hussein, who was overthrown five years ago. Even as they work alongside U.S. forces, Zobaie’s men admit they have beaten and tortured suspects to force confessions and exact revenge…

   “We never tortured anybody,” he said. “Sometimes we beat them during the first hours of capture.” …

   Once a member of Hussein’s elite Republican Guard, Zobaie is driven by allegiance neither to the United States nor to Iraq’s Shiite-run central government. He wants U.S. troops to leave Iraq. But for now, he needs the United States to bolster him with military muscle and funds. And the U.S. military today depends on men such as Zobaie to help bring about the order and security in Iraq that could eventually lead to the end of the American occupation.

   “I have realized that Americans love the strong guy,” Zobaie said…

   What Zobaie wants is for the U.S. military to hand over full control of Fallujah. He believes Iraq’s current leaders are not strong enough. Asked whether democracy could ever bloom here, he replied: “No democracy in Iraq. Ever.“

   “When the Americans leave the city,” he said, “I’ll be tougher with the people.”

3. Two news items from Pakistan. First, the Washington Post reports that a Bhutto aide was named Pakistan’s new prime minister. Yousaf Raza Gillani was elected prime minister today and “immediately ordered the release from house arrest of judges detained last year by President Pervez Musharraf.” Gillani’s challenge to Musharref came hours afer his overwhelming election. “Hundreds of jubilant Pakistanis then converged on the Islamabad home of the detained former chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, as police began removing barricades and barbed wire fences… ‘I and my colleagues were unconstitutionally confined under house arrest,’ Chaudhry told the crowd”.

   Also, the Los Angeles Times reports that Poems are “fighting words” in Pakistan. “Pakistan may be home to Islamic terrorists. It boasts a nuclear arsenal and an omnipotent military. But it is also a place where lyrical expression still holds great power to inform, inspire and even mobilize the masses, as it has in recent months, to the government’s dismay. That power derives from the fact that poetry is woven into the fabric of everyday life here in a way seldom found in the West.”

4. Lastly, a bit from Frank Rich’s op-ed on Sunday in The New York Times, “The Republican Resurrection“.

   For Republicans, the prospect of marathon Democratic trench warfare is an Easter miracle. Saddled with the legacy of both Iraq and a cratering economy, the G.O.P. can only rejoice at its opponents’ talent for self-destruction. The Republicans can also count on the help of a political press that, whatever its supposed tilt toward Mr. Obama, remains most benevolent toward John McCain.

   This was strikingly apparent last week, when Mr. McCain’s calamitous behavior was relegated to sideshow status by many, if not most, news media. At a time of serious peril for America, the G.O.P.’s presumptive presidential nominee revealed himself to be alarmingly out of touch on both of the most pressing issues roiling the country…

   But as violence flares up again in Iraq and the American economy skids, the issues consuming the Democrats are Mr. Wright and Geraldine Ferraro, race and gender, unsanctioned primaries and unaccountable superdelegates. Unless Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton find a way to come together for the good of their country as well as their party, no speech by either of them may prevent Mr. McCain from making his second unlikely resurrection in a single political year.

1. The International Herald Tribune reports the U.S. risks losing its future military leaders as Iraq war goes on.

   During the war in Iraq, young Marine and army captains have become U.S. viceroys, officers with large sectors to run and near-autonomy to do it. In army parlance, they are the “ground-owners.” In practice, they are power brokers…

   The Iraqis have learned that these captains, many still in their 20s, can call down devastating U.S. firepower one day and approve multimillion-dollar projects the next. Some have become celebrities in their sectors, leaders whose names are known even to children. Many believe that these captains are the linchpins in the Americans’ strategy for success in Iraq, but as the war continues into its sixth year, the army has been losing them in large numbers – at a time when it says it needs thousands more.

   Most of these captains have extensive combat experience and are regarded as the army’s future leaders. They are exactly the people the army most wants. Unfortunately for the army, corporate America wants them too. And the hardships of repeated tours are taking their toll, tilting them back toward civilian life and possibly complicating the future course of the war…

   “Many of the brightest and most experienced captains of my generation are being driven out of the army by the prospect of a career filled with deployments every other year,” said Captain Patrick Ryan, who says he is certain to leave the army when his five-year commitment is done. “I think the army stands to lose a generation of battle-tested junior leaders.”

2. The Los Angeles Times reports the U.S. seeks jobs for surplus hired guns in Iraq.

   When the Sunni Arab villagers decided to fight back with the help of U.S. forces, Nasir said, he was one of the first to sign up for the $10-a-day paramilitary work. So he was less than pleased when he was informed last month that security had increased to the point that his services as a gun-for-hire were no longer needed.

   “I don’t want to make trouble,” he told the soldiers urgently. “I just want to live my life, and I need work.”

   After five years of trial and error, the strategy of recruiting tribesmen to help defend their neighborhoods against Islamic extremists has proved one of the most effective weapons in the U.S. counterinsurgency arsenal. But restoring a measure of calm to what were some of the most violent places in Iraq has in turn presented the U.S. military with one of its biggest headaches: what to do with the more than 80,000 armed men whose loyalty has been bought with a paycheck that cannot go on forever…

   Already, cracks are appearing in what one senior official describes as the central plank of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy. Hundreds of Sunni guards abandoned their posts for weeks last month in the Diyala provincial capital, Baqubah, demanding the replacement of a provincial police chief, a Shiite Muslim they accused of brutality against Sunnis. Errant U.S. airstrikes, which have killed a number of the fighters, prompted a similar walkout in Jurf al Sakhar, south of Baghdad.

3. The Seattle Times reports Here at home, Army battles to attract qualified recruits. “At a time when the Army and Marines have relaxed their standards for new recruits in an effort to increase their fighting forces, the military can’t afford to lose many prospects. After five years of controversy over U.S. involvement in Iraq and nearly 4,000 combat deaths, finding qualified candidates and persuading them to enlist is difficult, recruiters say… The war’s unpopularity in many circles has made one traditional source – high schools – a tough sell for recruiters… To draw more people into their ranks, the Army and Marines are granting waivers to those who earlier would not have been accepted.” Seems like there are Sunnis in Iraq who want to paid to keep the peace in Iraq. Maybe the U.S. should let them?

News of Iran, Titan, and a bonus subprime video is below the fold.

1. According to the Washington Post, al-Qaeda still is impervious to spies after a decade at war with west.

   A decade after al-Qaeda issued a global declaration of war against America, U.S. spy agencies have had little luck recruiting well-placed informants and are finding the upper reaches of the network tougher to penetrate than the Kremlin during the Cold War, according to U.S. and European intelligence officials.

   Some counterterrorism officials say their agencies missed early opportunities to attack the network from within. Relying on Cold War tactics such as cash rewards for tips failed to take into account the religious motivations of Islamist radicals and produced few results.

   Since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, officials said, al-Qaeda has tightened its internal security at the top, placing an even greater emphasis on personal and tribal loyalties to determine who can gain access to its leaders.

   Alain Chouet, former chief of the security intelligence service of the DGSE, France’s foreign spy agency, said it can take years for informants to burrow their way into radical Islamist networks. Even if they’re successful at first, he said, new al-Qaeda members are often “highly disposable” — prime candidates for suicide missions.

   He said it might be too late for Western intelligence agencies, having missed earlier chances, to redouble efforts to infiltrate the network. “I think you cannot penetrate such a movement now,” he said.

   At the same time, those agencies have made their task harder by blowing the cover of some promising informants and mishandling others.

   One name: Valerie Plame. So, it’s fitting that today, according to The Hill, Scooter Libby was disbarred in District of Columbia. “Libby, whose presidential pardon last year was a touchstone for Bush administration critics, was ejected from practicing law by the District of Columbia Court of Appeals. The D.C. court cited Libby’s 2007 conviction for lying to a grand jury and federal officials investigating the identity leak of CIA agent Valerie Plame Wilson.”

2. The Los Angeles Times examines if A new Great Depression is possible. “There are vast differences between the 1930s and today. U.S. unemployment reached 25% during the Depression; last month it was reported at 4.8%. The international industrial economy was a shambles in the ’30s. Today it is coming off a global boom.”

   

   “I’ve been asked many times whether we will have another Great Depression,” said David M. Kennedy, a Stanford University history professor and the author of Freedom From Fear, a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the Depression and World War II. “My standard answer is that we won’t have that one again — I’d be surprised to have one of that seriousness and duration. But that doesn’t mean we wouldn’t have a catastrophe we haven’t seen before.” …

   The Fed’s recent actions were “a temporary palliative” to the fundamental problem in the economy, which is the rapid fall in home prices and its ripple effect on mortgage bonds and other securities, said Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics and political science at UC Berkeley. “You have to reorganize the system, but the discussion about that has only begun.”

   The Huntington Herald-Dispatch reports that Obama links war and economy. At the University of Charleston, West Virginia, Sen. Barack Obama spoke to a standing room only crowd of 600. “Obama said it is crucial citizens do not overlook the war’s impact on the American economy. ‘At a time when we’re on the brink of recession, when neighborhoods have ‘For Sale’ signs outside every home and working families are struggling to keep up with rising costs, ordinary Americans are paying a price for this war,’ he said. ‘When you’re spending over $50 to fill up your car because the price of oil is four times what it was before Iraq, you’re paying a price for this war.'”

   Reuters adds Obama says Iraq war drag on economy. “Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Thursday said the $500 billion cost of the Iraq war is a drag on the U.S. economy and attempted to lay some of the blame for it on Republican rival John McCain. ‘How much longer are we going to ask our families and our communities to bear the cost of this war?’ the Illinois senator asked in a speech… ‘No matter what the costs, no matter what the consequences, John McCain seems determined to carry out a third Bush term,’ Obama said.”

Four at Four continues below the fold with stories on the Pentagon’s divisions over Iraq, China’s suppression of protesters in Tibet, methane detected outside our solar system, global coal shortages, and wind-powered computers.

Today’s Four at Four will be long, but worth your time to read.

1. What is the real death toll in Iraq?
   By Jonathan Steele and Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian

   Lieutenant General Tommy Franks, who led the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan during his time as head of US Central Command, once announced, “We don’t do body counts.” This blunt response to a question about civilian casualties was an attempt to distance George Bush’s wars from the disaster of Vietnam. One of the rituals of that earlier conflict was the daily announcement of how many Vietnamese fighters US forces had killed. It was supposed to convince a sceptical American public that victory was coming. But the “body count” concept sounded callous – and never more so than when it emerged that many of the alleged guerrilla dead were in fact women, children and other unarmed civilians.

   Iraq was going to be different. The US would count its own dead (now close to 4,000), but the toll the war was taking on Iraqis was not a matter the Pentagon or any other US government department intended to quantify. Especially once Bush had declared “mission accomplished” on May 1 2003 – after that, every new Iraqi who died by violence would be a signal that the president was wrong, and would show that a war conducted in the name of humanitarian intervention was exacting a mounting humanitarian toll of its own.

   But even though the Americans were not counting, people were dying, and every victim had a name and a family. Wedding parties were bombed by US planes, couples driving home at night were shot at checkpoints because they missed a flashlight warning them to stop, and hundreds of other unarmed civilians were killed for no legitimate cause. In just the last three weeks of April 2003, after Saddam’s statue and his regime were toppled, US forces killed at least 266 civilians – a pattern of overeager resort to fire which has continued to this day.

   So five years after Bush and Tony Blair launched the invasion of Iraq against the wishes of a majority of UN members, no one knows how many Iraqis have died. We do know that more than two million have fled abroad. Another 1.5 million have sought safety elsewhere in Iraq. We know that the combined horror of car bombs, suicide attacks, sectarian killing and disproportionate US counter-insurgency tactics and air strikes have produced the worst humanitarian catastrophe in today’s world. But the exact death toll remains a mystery.

   The article examines the various estimates that range from “100,000 dead to well over a million”. It is well worth the time to read.

Four at Four continues below the fold looking at the five year anniversary of the war in Iraq and its occupation.

1. The New York Times reports Bush backs Fed’s actions, but critics quickly find fault. George W. “Bush on Monday welcomed the Federal Reserve’s sweeping intervention in the nation’s financial markets as his administration faced accusations that it had supported the bailout of a prestigious investment bank while doing little to address the hardships of Americans facing foreclosures on their homes… Mr. Bush singled out Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. for praise, saying he had shown ‘the country and the world that the United States is on top of the situation,’ an assertion that was broadly disputed by the president’s critics.”

   Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, George W. Bush, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke yuck it up as their policies steer the United States into a deep recession and a worthless dollar.

   The Wall Street Jornal reports Street Cheers Goldman, Lehman. “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the two big U.S. investment banks least wounded thus far by the credit crunch, gave markets a shot in the arm Tuesday by reporting first-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations and were free of nasty surprises. To be sure, the results were damaged by the turmoil of the past few months, in which key markets froze up as banks became increasingly wary of trading with each other. Each bank’s earnings fell by more than 50% from the year before, and each booked roughly $2 billion in credit-related losses.” And this was the “good” news today? Put me down as unimpressed.

   Meanwhile over in Russia, Prava, yeah Pravda, runs with an opinion-analysis of the U.S. economic fallout by Abbas Bakhtiar, When the US sneezes the world catches cold.

   The world’s economy will experience the negative effects from the US economic downturn. The most affected areas will be China and other Asian “emerging” economies and European Union… The full picture of financial crisis is still hidden and full cost of the coming bailouts will not be known till autumn.

   Of course this is not written in stone. The US government may come to its senses and decides to act responsibly and allow many companies and banks to go under. It may try to support dollar. It may try to cut the budget deficit or the trade deficit. It may even decide that its war in Iraq was not and is not such a good idea and withdraw its troops. It may even try to get friendly with Venezuela and Iran, thereby reduce both the price of oil and pressure on the dollar. The truth is that it is the US president that can do these things and not the Federal Reserves. We just have to wait for the elections and see who is elected as the next president.

   It is my opinion that no other US president has ever damaged United States as much as George Bush, and he will be remembered by both the Americans and others as one of the most unpopular US presidents ever. But he is at the end of his second term and has only a year to destroy the rest of the economy. Let us hope that he will be busy with other things and doesn’t do more damage. Let us also hope that the American people will not fall for promises of further tax cuts and glories in battle fields abroad. Neither brings peace and prosperity.

   And, just to underscore how “on top of the situation” Bernake is, the Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by 3/4 of a point, according to the NY Times. The cut “to 2.25 percent… was less than investors had been hoping for even though it was one of the deepest in Fed history.” Don’t Panic. Don’t Panic.

2. The Associated Press reports Mortars near U.S. embassy in Yemen kill 1. “Two mortar shells exploded Tuesday by a high school next to the U.S. embassy, killing a Yemeni guard and wounding three students and three other guards, an Interior Ministry official said. Troops sealed off roads and prevented journalists from coming closer to the school, which is attended mostly by Yemeni students… It was unclear if the embassy or the school was the target.”

3. The Guardian reports Kosovo clashes force UN to withdraw. “Serbs went on the warpath against western peacekeepers in northern Kosovo yesterday in the worst unrest since the small Albanian-dominated Balkan province declared independence a month ago. As UN riot police backed by Nato helicopters and armoured vehicles used stun grenades and teargas to restore control of a court building occupied by Serb activists last week in the northern Serb-controlled town of Mitrovica, Serbian rioters clashed with the international forces and used automatic weapons against Nato troops. Dozens of police, Nato troops, and Serb civilians were hurt in explosions and clashes after riot police stormed the building at dawn.”

4. The Independent reports China prepares for crackdown by clearing Tibetan capital of witnesses. “After days of street fighting and protests by Tibetans seeking independence, Chinese authorities have moved to clear Lhasa of the last independent witnesses ahead of a deadline for demonstrators to surrender. Beijing’s governor in Tibet promised leniency to demonstrators prepared to give themselves up, but Tibet independence groups said scores of people had already been killed during the protests. Yesterday, sources in Lhasa said NGOs and the few remaining foreign journalists were taken out of the city, leaving no one to inform the world of how Beijing would reinforce order. Some reports said handcuffed Tibetan prisoners were paraded through the city earlier yesterday.”

News of Obama’s speech this morning is below the fold.

1. When rats slink in and out of buildings, they don’t announce their arrivals. And, so it comes as no surprise that, McClatchy Newspapers reports Cheney, in surprise Iraq visit, praises “phenomenal” progress.

   Dick Cheney made a surprise visit to Baghdad on Monday and credited Iraqi leaders and a massive U.S. troop build-up with security improvements he described as phenomenal” after meetings with U.S. military commanders and Iraqi politicians.

   But violence continued against civilians. At sunset Monday, a female suicide bomber killed at least 36 people and injured more than 40 when she blew herself up among Iranian pilgrims just outside a crowded Shiite Muslim shrine in the southern holy city of Karbala, said Raheem Mishawi, a spokesman of Karbala’s provincial government. Local police said many Iranians were among the victims.

   Cheney’s trip coincided with that of another high-profile visitor, Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who arrived Sunday for a two-day fact-finding mission for the U.S. Senate’s Armed Services Committee. Cheney was a chief architect of the U.S.-led invasion that began five years ago this week; McCain was an early supporter of the war.

   Despite the Bush administration’s lies they tell to their American audience, the Iraqis know the reality in their country. McClatchy reports, 5 years after Iraq’s ‘liberation,’ there are worms in the water. “To them, the real crime is that five years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, they still swelter in the summer and freeze in the winter because of a lack of electricity. Government rations are inevitably late, incomplete or expired. Garbage piles up for days, sometimes weeks, emanating toxic fumes. The list goes on: black-market fuel, phone bills for land lines that haven’t worked in years, education and health-care systems degraded by the flight of thousands of Iraq’s best teachers and doctors… Increasingly, Iraqis are relying on militias and other armed groups to fill the services void.“

   Meanwhile the CS Monitor wonders Is the Mahdi Army’s ‘cease-fire’ over? “Over the past 10 days, violence has tested the militia’s period of quiet, which many say has contributed to a drop in US and Iraqi casualties, and seems to indicate deepening fissures within Sadr’s powerful organization… Clashes between militiamen and the police in the city of Kut, about 100 miles southeast of Baghdad, since Tuesday have left at least 13 people dead including two policemen”.

2. The Washington Post reports that 4 FBI agents were hurt in Islamabad blast. “Four FBI agents were among 12 people wounded in a weekend bomb blast at a popular Italian restaurant in Pakistan’s capital, U.S. law enforcement officials said Sunday… The explosion killed a Turkish woman and injured several other people, including another American. The four FBI agents who were wounded included a legal attache, an assistant legal attache and an agency supervisor, according to one law enforcement official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak for the record. The job title of the fourth agent could not be determined… The U.S.-led task force was called in to assist with an investigation into two coordinated bombings Tuesday in Lahore.”

Below the fold, stories on the Pacific salmon collapse, Europe’s next green energy source, and sand dimes.

1. Ozone Rules Weakened at Bush’s Behest

   The Washington Post is reporting that “The Environmental Protection Agency weakened one part of its new limits on smog-forming ozone after an unusual last-minute intervention by President Bush, according to documents released by the EPA.”

   EPA officials initially tried to set a lower seasonal limit on ozone to protect wildlife, parks and farmland, as required under the law. While their proposal was less restrictive than what the EPA’s scientific advisers had proposed, Bush overruled EPA officials and on Tuesday ordered the agency to increase the limit, according to the documents.

   “It is unprecedented and an unlawful act of political interference for the president personally to override a decision that the Clean Air Act leaves exclusively to EPA’s expert scientific judgment,” said John Walke, clean-air director for the Natural Resources Defense Council.

   The president’s order prompted a scramble by administration officials to rewrite the regulations to avoid a conflict with past EPA statements on the harm caused by ozone…

   When asked about Clement’s role, White House spokesman Tony Fratto said: “The White House sought legal advice from the Justice Department and made its decision based on that advice.”

   Glad to see science and the health of the American people taking such a big role in Bush’s decision.

2. FBI Misuses Security Letters

   Click to enlarge.

   The Washington Post reports, “the FBI has increasingly used administrative orders to obtain the personal records of U.S. citizens rather than foreigners implicated in terrorism or counterintelligence investigations, and at least once it relied on such orders to obtain records that a special intelligence-gathering court had deemed protected by the First Amendment, according to two government audits released yesterday. The episode was outlined in a Justice Department report that concluded the FBI had abused its intelligence-gathering privileges by issuing inadequately documented ‘national security letters’ from 2003 to 2006, after which changes were put in place that the report called sound….”

   “Because U.S. citizens enjoy constitutional protections against unreasonable searches and seizures, judicial warrants are ordinarily required for government surveillance. But national security letters are approved only by FBI officials and are not subject to judicial approval; they routinely demand certain types of personal data, such as telephone, e-mail and financial records, while barring the recipient from disclosing that the information was requested or supplied.”

3. The Associated Press reports Bush a clueless idiot and economic moron. “Trying to calm jitters about the economy, President Bush conceded on Friday that the country “obviously is going through a tough time” but expressed confidence about a rebound. In a speech to The Economic Club of New York, Bush said this was not the first time the economy has been rattled and that he is certain that it will ride out its troubles. ‘These are uncertain times,’ he said.” Bush also blamed Bill Clinton and 9/11 for America’s economic problems. In his remarks, Bush said:

   And I want to spend a little time talking about that, but I want to remind you, this is not the first time since I’ve been the President that we have faced economic challenges. We inherited a recession. And then there was the attacks of September the 11th, 2001, which many of you saw firsthand, and you know full well how that affected our economy…

   Fortunately, we recognized the slowdown early and took action. And it was decisive action, in the form of policies that will spur growth…

   The Federal Reserve has taken action to bolster the economy. I respect Ben Bernanke. I think he’s doing a good job under tough circumstances…

   I believe strongly that NAFTA has been positive for the United States of America, like it’s been positive for our trading partners in Mexico and Canada…

   A confident nation accepts capital from overseas. We can protect our people against investments that jeopardize our national security, but it makes no sense to deny capital, including sovereign wealth funds, from access to the U.S. markets. It’s our money to begin with. It seems like we ought to let it back.

4. The Oregonian reports Coastal areas brace for salmon shutdown. “Fishery managers have shut down salmon fishing off Oregon’s coast through April to protect collapsing fish stocks, presaging what could become the largest West Coast closure in history. The biggest factor is the plummeting returns of normally robust chinook salmon to the Sacramento River in California, although salmon numbers in many Oregon rivers are down sharply, too… While past years have seen poor salmon numbers in certain regions, this year the decline seems to extend along almost the entire West Coast…”

   Next month, federal fishery managers may close ocean salmon fishing from May through its typical end-date in mid-November from northern Oregon to the Mexican border. At a minimum, the key fishery will be severely restricted, Oregon officials said… Biologists are stunned by the failing returns to the Sacramento River, typically one of the healthiest and most abundant stocks on the West Coast.”