Tag: 4@4

Well I really tried to keep the start of Great Depression II out of Four at Four, but…

1. George Soros writing in the Financial Times states this is The worst market crisis in 60 years.

   Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared.

   The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility…

   Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world.

   The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.

   Worse could be depression or war… nuclear war.

2. The New York Times – Worries That the Good Times Were Mostly a Mirage.

   The recent financial turmoil has many causes, but they are tied to a basic fear that some of the economic successes of the last generation may yet turn out to be a mirage. That helps explain why problems in the American subprime mortgage market could have spread so quickly through the world’s financial system. On Tuesday, Mr. Bernanke, who is now the Fed chairman, presided over the steepest one-day interest rate cut in the central bank’s history.

   The great moderation now seems to have depended – in part – on a huge speculative bubble, first in stocks and then real estate, that hid the economy’s rough edges. Everyone from first-time home buyers to Wall Street chief executives made bets they did not fully understand, and then spent money as if those bets couldn’t go bad. For the past 16 years, American consumers have increased their overall spending every single quarter, which is almost twice as long as any previous streak.

   So if the past 16 years were a mirage, then Clintonomics were a lie too… Right Hillary?

3. And what will our glorious, clueless leaders in Washington do? Well the Washington Post reports Bush and lawmakers are close to deal on stimulus package. “Officials said they were close to the framework of a roughly $145 billion plan. About two-thirds of the money would go for tax breaks for individuals, plus extended unemployment and food stamp benefits, while the other third would be for business tax breaks. Individuals would get rebates of as much as $800, and married couples as much as $1,600… After a year of antagonism over issues including the Iraq war and children’s health care, the collaboration between Bush and the two Democratic leaders was intended to signal to a nervous country that Washington can put aside partisan bickering to bolster the economy.”

   We need investment in America, not more damned tax cuts. In my opinion, this is close to the worst possible thing they could do.

Finally for a change of pace, an interesting story about an ancient skull is below the fold…

Some news other than the markets collapsing.

1. According to The Great Beyond, a blog at Nature, there could be a Climate change trade war brewing.

   Europe and the US could be headed for a trade war over climate change.

   In a speech yesterday José Barroso, president of the European Commission, said he would be ready to force companies outside the EU to buy carbon allowances to ensure that companies inside were not disadvantaged by Europe’s tougher emissions targets (speech).

   While this apparently went down well with the audience (of European businessmen) it hasn’t gone down so well with America.

   Reuters highlights that US Trade Representative Susan Schwab said that an earlier version of the EU plans seemed to be an excuse to close the European market and amounted to something like protectionism. More worryingly, the notes for speech delivered by Schwab last week contains the statement, “The unilateral imposition of restrictions can lead to retaliation, and dramatically impact economic growth and markets worldwide – while accomplishing nothing or worse when it comes to advancing environmental objectives.”

2. The Christian Science Monitor reports Wind, solar tax credits to expire. “After years of start-and-stop growth, wind-and solar- power industries soared in 2007, thanks to three consecutive years of tax credits that provided a critical lift for both sectors. But whether the fledgling industries can fly without tax credits, due to expire at the end of this year, is a question being debated on Capitol Hill this week.”

   Nearly one-third of all US power capacity added last year – about 5,244 megawatts – was in wind. Overall wind-generating capacity soared 45 percent last year, adding the clean-energy equivalent of 10 large coal-fired power plants, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) reported last week.

   Wind power injected $9 billion into the US economy and now employs 20,000 people directly, the industry says. Plans for at least eight new US wind-power manufacturing plants employing 5,000 workers were announced last year, AWEA officials say…

   Together, today’s tax breaks for wind and solar cost taxpayers a little more than $1 billion annually.

   I think this has been a good investment for America and should be continued.

Four at Four continues below the fold with a story about the Canadian border and the death of thousands of Inuit sled dogs.

1. The New York Times reports Dr. King honored by Democratic presidential candidates. “The three rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination stood together on the steps of the state capitol here on Monday in a brief display of political unity as they remembered the life and legacy of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. With a bitter chill in the air, the candidates addressed a crowd that overflowed onto a sprawling downtown plaza, vowing to complete the unfinished business of the slain civil rights leader… As the candidates spoke, a Confederate flag whipped into the stiff wind, a poignant reminder of South Carolina’s historic racial divide that still hangs over politics here.” The Democrats are in S.C. for tonight’s Congressional Black Caucus debate on CNN at 8 p.m. Eastern.

2. AFP reports scientists have found evidence of a Massive volcano that exploded under Antarctic icesheet. “A powerful volcano erupted under the icesheet of West Antarctica around 2,000 years ago and it might still be active today, a finding that prompts questions about ice loss from the white continent… The explosive event — rated “severe” to “cataclysmic” on an international scale of volcanic force — punched a massive breach in the icesheet and spat out a plume some 12,000 metres (eight miles) into the sky”. The British scientists calculated the blast happened around 207 B.C, give or take 240 years, which is roughly during the lifetime of Alexander the Great. While volcanic heat may be the cause of some Antarctic ice melt, the scientists state warming ocean water is the primary factor.

3. The Guardian reports on the Drive to save weird and endangered amphibians. “British scientists have launched an ambitious conservation project to protect some of the weirdest and slimiest creatures on the planet from extinction. The Zoological Society of London’s Edge project has identified 100 species of amphibians that have the fewest living relatives, making them evolutionary rarities and precious examples of Earth’s biodiversity… Climate change, habitat loss and outbreaks of disease have taken their toll on amphibians around the world. Half of all amphibian species are in decline, while a third are threatened with extinction.” 2008 is the Year of the Frog.

4. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Local architects offer visions of SF in 2108. If the winning proposal of IwamotoScott Architecture vision of San Francisco’s future should come to pass, the city will “be a place where forests of towers grow algae as well as house people, and where geothermal steam baths sprout atop Twin Peaks.” The firm “said a city that produces its own energy – such as the hydrogen that would be generated by vast vertical fields of algae – and moves most travel underground shouldn’t be all that far-fetched.”

   “We were thinking of the city as an evolutionary beast,” said [Lisa] Iwamoto, a design lecturer at UC Berkeley as well as the operator, with [Craig] Scott, her husband, of a four-person firm based in the couple’s Mission District loft. “You create certain conditions, and that allows other things to happen.”

Some news and open thread.

Postcard from Nevada — Barack, Hillary, and John at the grown-up’s debate.

Inside today’s Four at Four:

1. Bush overrules federal court
2. White House email tapes erased
3. CIA torture tapes destroyed
4. A rat the size of a hippopotamus

Go on click below the fold and comment… I dare you!

1. The Washington Post reports the Pentagon now says Iranian boats may not have made radio threat after all. “The Pentagon said yesterday that the apparent radio threat to bomb U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf last weekend may not have come from the five Iranian Revolutionary Guard speedboats that approached them — and may not even have been intended against U.S. targets… Pentagon officials insist that they never claimed Iran made the threat.” Um… yes the anonymous Pentagon officials did.

2. Anthony D. Romero of Salon notes Our shameful Guantanamo anniversary.

   Today, America’s Guantánamo era enters its seventh shameful year. If we are ever to regain our standing as a nation committed to the rule of law and fundamental human rights, we must close the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay now, reaffirm our commitment to international treaties and our own Constitution, and either release or prosecute fairly the men who have been held so long in a legal and moral black hole…

   But the appalling fact that innocent men have been imprisoned and abused at Guantánamo is not the only reason why its closure is of such urgent importance. The most profound and enduring stain of Guantánamo is its corrosive effect on America’s reputation and standing, and on respect for the rule of law worldwide…

   In truth, Guantánamo has demolished America’s moral standing because the government chose to abandon our time-tested criminal justice system. In its place, they’ve erected a new regime of military commissions that permits — according to recent congressional testimony by the Pentagon general who oversees it — evidence obtained through torture, including the brutal practice of waterboarding.

3. The Sydney Morning Herald reports on the Political dilemma over Guantanamo.

   Now, after years of revelations of CIA ‘ghost’ prisons, controversial interrogation methods and the mess of Iraq, George Bush is widely disrespected and his nation’s reputation is tarnished. Guantanamo has been a disaster for the US and the very word is now shorthand for Bush’s mistakes. Even the US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, acknowledges that the facility needs to be closed to help restore America’s moral authority…

   Of the roughly 275 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo, only 10 have been charged and only three cases are pending trial. The earliest predicted trial date is May, but that may be derailed by legal action in the US civil courts…

   Robert Gates and the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, have advised the President to close Guantanamo. Bush himself admits he wants to. The problem is what to do with the prisoners. If they are moved to American jails, they will have to be charged and tried under US law. Evidence gathered through coercive interrogations will not be admissible in regular courts and so Bush would risk watching the likes of Mohammed and Hambali walk free. An easier option is to leave the Guantanamo problem – along with Iraq – for the next occupant of the Oval Office to solve.

4. Andrew Stroehlein, Director of Media and Information for the International Crisis Group, writes US warns citizens to keep clear of Guantanamo protests. “I received a fairly disturbing message from the US Embassy in Brussels yesterday, a high-importance mass email warning all American citizens in Belgium not to go near a small Amnesty International demonstration that is happening this afternoon. It’s so unbelievable, I produce it here:”

   [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
   Sent: 10 January 2008 11:43
   To: [email protected]
   Subject: Warden Message
   Importance: High

   Warden Message
   20080110 Warden Message – Demonstrations – January 10, 2008

   Spontaneous demonstrations take place in Belgium from time to time in response to world events or local developments. We remind American citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possible escalate into violence. American citizens are therefore urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of any demonstrations. American citizens should stay current with media coverage of local events and be aware of their surroundings at all times. Upcoming demonstration information follows: …

   While scarcely being covered in the news, there have been worldwide protests against the United States and Guantanamo today.

Some news and open thread.

1. The Los Angeles Times reports U.S. drops 40,000 pounds of bombs outside of Baghdad. “U.S. bombers and fighter jets continued an aggressive attack on the southern outskirts of Baghdad this morning, unleashing 38 bombs in 10 minutes on suspected havens of the militant group Al Qaeda in Iraq. In all, they dropped 40,000 pounds of bombs on Arab Jabour, in an area of mostly farmland, the U.S. military said in a statement… A booby-trapped home exploded Wednesday, killing six American soldiers and an interpreter and injuring nine others. The U.S. military also reported that three service members were killed by small-arms fire the day before. The two-day toll makes the latest effort to flush out Al Qaeda in Iraq the deadliest operation in months.”

   Other news from Iraq comes from The New York Times, which reports 2005 use of gas by Blackwater leaves questions. In May 2005, a Blackwater helicopter “dropped CS gas, a riot-control substance the American military in Iraq can use only under the strictest conditions and with the approval of top military commanders. An armored vehicle on the ground also released the gas, temporarily blinding drivers, passers-by and at least 10 American soldiers operating the checkpoint.”

   “This was decidedly uncool and very, very dangerous,” Capt. Kincy Clark of the Army, the senior officer at the scene, wrote later that day. “It’s not a good thing to cause soldiers who are standing guard against car bombs, snipers and suicide bombers to cover their faces, choke, cough and otherwise degrade our awareness.”

2. According to the Washington Post, Jose Rodriguez, the former CIA official that ordered the CIA torture tapes to be destroyed, is refusing to testify before the House intelligence committee “unless he is granted immunity from prosecution for his statements”. Also, U.S. District Judge Henry H. Kennedy Jr. wrote “in a three-page ruling that a group of inmates held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, ‘offer nothing to support their assertion that a judicial inquiry’ is necessary into the tape destruction. He said neither of the detainees whose interrogations were taped and later destroyed has an apparent connection to the prisoners who were demanding the review. Kennedy also wrote that he expects the Justice Department ‘will follow the facts wherever they may lead and live up to the assurances it made to this court.'”

3. The Guardian reports Bush calls on Israel to end occupation of Palestinian land. “George Bush today called on Israel to end its 41-year occupation of Palestinian land and predicted a peace treaty would be signed by the time he leaves office. Speaking after a meeting with the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, Bush said: ‘There should be an end to the occupation that began in 1967. An agreement must establish Palestine as a homeland for the Palestinian people, just as Israel is a homeland for the Jewish people.'” Brilliant! Now why didn’t any of Bush’s predecessors think of this cunning stratagem that will surely bring peace in our time?

4. The Los Angles Times reports on The question that almost wasn’t asked.

   It was such a girlie question, Marianne Pernold Young wasn’t sure she should ask it.

   There she was, within touching distance of a very smart Hillary Rodham Clinton at a little New Hampshire coffee shop where a handful of other very smart women had spent an hour asking very smart questions about immigration and national security — and the only thing she could think to ask, the only thing she really wanted to know: How do you do it?

   The microphone came her way once, and Pernold Young handed it off. Too bush league, she thought. But then something inside the 64-year-old freelance photographer and three-year breast cancer survivor said “what the heck.”

   Truth be told, all the policy talk was getting boring. So when the mike came around one last time, she asked the question that helped to steady the listing campaign of the first woman with a real shot at the White House:

   “As a woman, I know it’s hard to get out of the house and get ready. My question is very personal. How do you do it?”

1. The victims of Hurricane Katrina are thinking big — really big. According to the Associated Press, Katrina’s Victims sue for $3 quadrillion. “A whopping $3,014,170,389,176,410 is the dollar figure so far sought from some of the largest claims filed against the federal government over damage from the failure of levees and flood walls following the Aug. 29, 2005, hurricane… For the sake of perspective: A mere $1 quadrillion would dwarf the U.S. gross domestic product… was $13.2 trillion in 2007.” Our national debt is now over $9.2 trillion.

2. While Iran isn’t the most trust-inspiring nation, the Bush administration isn’t well-known for their honesty and ablity to tell the truth either. So, it comes as no surprise that, according to The New York Times, Iran accuses the Bush administration of faking Persian Gulf video. “‘Images released by the U.S. Department of Defense about the navy vessels, the archive, and sounds on it are fabricated,’ an unnamed Revolutionary Guard official said… The video and audio were recorded separately and then matched, Naval and Pentagon officials said Tuesday… The video runs just over four minutes and, according to Pentagon officials, was shot from the bridge of the guided missile destroyer Hopper.”

   Here’s the video… kind of low production values… reminds me of those ‘bin Laden’ videos. What do you think?

3. The Los Angeles Times reports Conservative Supreme Court cool to voter ID challenge. “he U.S. Supreme Court, hearing arguments in a partisan election-law dispute, gave no hint today that it would strike down the nation’s strictest voter identification law. Democrats in Indiana challenged the law as unconstitutional, saying the Republican-backed measure would deter thousands of poor, minority and elderly voters from casting ballots. Registered voters in Indiana without a valid driver’s license or passport would not have their ballots counted. But the justices, with the conservatives leading the way, said the Democrats had failed to prove the measure would have much impact.” Gee… color me surprised!

4. Here’s a fun story… the Washington Post reports In India, gods rule the ‘toon’ universe. For “eight-year-old Tejas Vohra, one of his favorite superheroes is a cool cartoon version of Hanuman, the monkey-headed Hindu god… In ‘The Return of Hanuman,’ the adored deity is reborn as a boy who goes to school in khaki shorts, uses a computer, combats pollution and, most important, smashes the bad guys to pulp… ‘It was awesome to see the gods laughing, singing and flying planes. The fights were really good, and in the end Hanuman sets everything right.’ A number of haloed Hindu gods and goddesses have debuted in the frenetic world of animation over the past five years. Their appearance marks a shift from a decades-long period in which Indian children grew up almost exclusively on American TV and movie characters”.

1. The New York Times reports a Record New Hampshire voter turnout is predicted. “In the Democratic and Republican primaries here, a large group of voters who are not registered in either party hold significant sway over the outcome. Those independent voters, 45 percent of the state electorate, are free to cast ballots in either primary… On a day that felt like springtime, with temperatures expected to reach 60 degrees, voters flooded the polls at a steady pace throughout the morning. The secretary of state, Bill Gardner, predicted that at least a half-million people would vote in the primary.”

2. Spiegel asks Is America slouching towards protectionism? The article begins by describing the US-Mexican border crossing:

   The border crossing, in its coarseness, is reminiscent of the East German side of the former border between the two Germanys, except that the face on wall posters is that of George W. Bush and not of the former East German leader Erich Honecker. It isn’t exactly a welcoming sort of place, this border crossing with its posters cataloging the potentially dire consequences of breaking the rules — including the illegal purchase of parrots (“You’re buying yourself bird flu”) and human trafficking (“Death is only one of the ways of losing your life”).

   While certainly the description is a tad gratuitous, I thought it was too good to pass over. Continuing, the article explains the factory boom in Mexico as manufacturing jobs in the United States has plummeted in the era of free trade.

   Americans, Spiegel explains “were promised a modern service industry, but what they got instead were low-paying, unskilled jobs packaging and delivering products. Even after five years of economic recovery, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics recently wrote in a special report, real wages are now lower than they were in 1999… Many Americans have stopped believing that vigorous international trade promotes the wealth of nations… Only 28 percent of respondents agreed that globalization is a good thing. White-collar workers have now joined their blue-collar counterparts in rejecting the form of international trade in place today. For the first time, a majority in both political camps — 55 percent of Republican and 63 percent of Democratic voters — are convinced that globalization is bad for the country.“

   The article continues to describe what life is like in “America’s poor backyard” — “surreal, hostile and, most of all, filthy” and “plagued by a high crime rate”. Then concludes with the impact on the United States.

   Nowadays America is both the world’s biggest borrower and its biggest importer. Many of the suppliers of days gone by are now competitors in their own right. Big US corporations may be reporting record profits and Wall Street may be awash in bonus payments, but workers — blue-collar and white-collar alike — are suffering.

   The American middle class is suddenly finding itself confronted with the conditions of the past, as wages decline and companies increasingly eliminate their contributions to their employees’ health insurance and retirement pensions…

   The gap between rich and poor has grown by leaps and bounds in America, far more so than in countries like Germany. One-fifth of Americans earn more than half of all wages and salaries. Ten percent of the population owns 70 percent of all assets.

   And according to The New York Times, even Bush admits economy faces challenges sucks.

Four at Four continues below the fold with deadly winter tornadoes in the Midwest and more…